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Asian spot LNG prices are rising but Chinese demand is still muted
The price of Asian spot LNG rose this week in line with European gas prices, which rose after the EU announced its plan to phase out Russian natural gas. However, prices are expected lower as Chinese demand is muted. Average LNG price for delivery to North-east Asia in June Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is now $11,50, up from $11,00/mmBtu a week ago. Next month, the European Commission will propose legal measures that would phase out all EU imports of Russian gas and LNG and ban EU spot purchases by 2025. Gas prices in Europe rose on 6 May following the EU announcement, but remained within a narrow range the rest of the day. Prices have risen over the past week due to the competition coming from other basins, as well as Europe's need for restocking during the summer injection cycle. The EU announcement only fueled this competition, said Aly Blakeway of S&P Global Commodity Insights, the manager of Atlantic LNG. Despite the increase in Asian demand, China's demand remained muted despite strong production of gas and healthy pipeline flow. He added that the lack of competition in Europe kept European LNG prices relatively high compared to their natural gas counterparts. Martin Senior, head LNG pricing at Argus, stated that the price increase in Europe has priced some Asian buyers out. Chinese buyers have withdrawn their offers after at least two spot sales by second-tier purchasers last week. Senior also added that prices are too high for significant spot demand to come from India. Arturo Regalado is a senior LNG and Gas Market Analyst at Kpler. He said that Asian LNG prices will be lower next week because of mild weather, large inventories and seasonal soft demand. The recent TTF rally wasn't driven by demand. The policy and supply risks are driving the market right now, said Regalado. He added that gas-fired generation is not likely to grow much in the future as temperatures rise and wind output improves. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe Gas Marker (NWM), a price benchmark, for cargoes to be delivered in June ex-ship on May 8. This represents a $0.70/mmBtu reduction from the gas price at Dutch TTF hub. Spark Commodities set the price at $11.041/mmBtu for June, while Argus put it at $11.04/mmBtu. Spark Commodities analyst Max Glen Doepel said that the U.S. Arbitrage via Panama to North-East Asia remains closed, while the arbitrage via Cape of Good Hope continues to point marginally to Asia. He added that on Friday the LNG market saw a drop in rates to $39,000/day for Atlantic, but rates for Pacific remained unchanged at $22,500/day. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney; Marwa Rashad)
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Finland Police continue their gas pipeline rupture investigation
The Finnish police confirmed on Friday that an investigation into the rupture of a Baltic Sea gas pipeline in 2023 is still underway and that China continues to cooperate with Finland over the suspected damage caused by a Hong Kong flagged vessel. South China Morning Post reported Thursday that the captain NewNew Polar Bear, a container ship, had been remanded to custody in Hong Kong under suspicion of the vessel severing a pipeline. The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not respond immediately to a comment request. In a press release, the National Bureau of Investigation of Finland said that "any measures taken by Chinese or Hong Kong authorities as part of the investigation will be communicated directly by the competent authorities." Baltic Sea Region is On high alert After a series of power cables, telecom links and gas pipelines outages, the NATO military alliance increased its presence by adding aircraft, frigates and naval drones. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Anna Ringstrom and Anne Kauranen)
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Indonesia coal exports post rare decline so far in 2025: Maguire
In 2025, Indonesian exports of thermal coke have fallen to their lowest level in three years due to weak demand from China and India, the two world's largest coal consumers. According to Kpler, the commodities intelligence firm, the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal for power production shipped out 150 millions tons of thermal coal in the first four month of 2025. This was 12% or almost 20 million tons less than the amount shipped in the same months of 2024. It was the largest year-on-year drop in data since the beginning of 2017. The lower Indonesian shipments, which account for about half of all thermal coke exports, have also lowered global thermal coal shipments by 7% or 23 million tonnes from January to April, compared with the same period a year earlier. If coal exports continue to be relatively slow over the remainder of the year, Indonesian coal exports could decline for the first time since 2020 when COVID-19 slowed down the country's coal production and shipments. KEY MARKET CUTS Indonesia's coal trade was hampered by a weaker demand for coal from China and India. China, the world's biggest coal consumer, producer and importer, reduced its Indonesian purchases by 14 million tonnes, or 20 percent, from January to April compared with the same period in the previous year. Beijing's increased emphasis on increasing local coal mine production, along with ongoing efforts to reduce pollution, has been the main driver behind China's decreased appetite for imports. India, the world's second largest coal consumer, is also focusing on increasing domestic coal production. It has reduced its imports of Indonesian coking coal by 15 percent, or 6 million tons from January to April 2024. BROADER COAL USE SLIPS? Indonesian coal imports have decreased this year, not only from China and India but also from other historically large coal-importing countries. Japan and South Korea have imported 13 million tons from Indonesia between January and April. This compares to 17 millions tons in the same period of 2024. Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia, as well as the Philippines, have also seen a decline in coal imports to Indonesia. The continued efforts to reduce coal consumption in power generation and the increase in clean energy production instead has likely helped reduce coal demand in Asia this year. Further declines in coal purchase could occur in the future. Data from Ember think tank shows that coal-fired power production in Asia fell by 3% over the first quarter 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The weak state of China’s industrial economy, which has direct trade links with partners in the region, has likely also played a part in reducing Asia’s coal consumption. The weakening of Chinese construction and heavy industry will have knock-on effects on its supply chains that span across borders, and have also chilled energy-intensive activities in neighbouring countries. The new tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump could further reduce the demand for coal in the coming months. If Asian economies choose to implement stimulus measures to counteract the impact of U.S. tariffs, this could lead to a greater industrial energy consumption, and subsequently a rise in coal imports. OUTLIERS Some major coal consumers have not yet reduced their coal imports and consumption. Vietnam and Bangladesh have both increased their Indonesian coal imports from January to April to record levels. They are also likely to increase coal consumption and imports in the future to feed their rapidly growing energy systems. The price of natural gases, another important source of energy in many places, has also increased sharply this year. Spain, Italy and New Zealand have all seen increases in their coal imports from Indonesia, as well as a higher output of coal-fired electricity. Ember data show that even the United States increased coal-fired electric production this year by more than 20% compared to last year's levels. This is not much help for Indonesian coal exporters as the U.S. also exports coal. The recent slowdown in Indonesia's coal exports is likely to continue for at least the short term, as China and India are both expected to remain modest coal importers. This in turn could lead to a rare year-long contraction in Indonesian coal shipments and a possible peak of global coal exports. The author is a columnist at
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Enbridge exceeds Q1 profit expectations on Mainline and Gas Distribution Growth
Enbridge exceeded market expectations for its first-quarter profits on Friday. This was due to higher earnings in its Mainline system, which includes its gas distribution unit. It also said that U.S. Tariffs are not expected have a material impact on its current operations. Canada is the largest supplier of oil imported to the United States. It delivers about 4 million barrels a day, mostly to Midwest refineries that are designed to process the specific grades. Enbridge expanded its gas distribution business by acquiring three utilities, including liquid pipelines, from Dominion Energy, a U.S. company, last year. Enbridge's gas distribution unit saw its earnings increase to C$1.60billion ($1.15billion) from C$765mil last year. The company's Mainline System, which transports nearly half the crude oil in the U.S.A, also saw an increase in its first-quarter core profit adjusted to C$1,45 billion from C$1.34billion last year. Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel stated in a press release that "The Mainline" was allocated the entire quarter and delivered a record-breaking 3.2 million barrels of oil per day. This shows its crucial role in transporting oil to major demand centers. Ebel stated that the investment of up to C$2 Billion in Mainline Capital Investment was based on the need for reliable and efficient service. In April, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers awarded National energy emergency status Enbridge's Line 5 oil pipeline tunnel proposal has been approved, allowing the federal government to expedite a critical permitting process. After President Donald Trump declared an energy crisis in the United States, he issued an executive order declaring a national emergency. According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG, the company reported an adjusted profit of C$1.03 for the quarter ending March 31. This was higher than analysts' expectations of 96 Canadian dollars per share. ($1 = 1.3917 Canadian dollars) (Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai)
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Chinese exporters are preparing to move goods to the US as soon as trade talks start.
After a series cancellations due to U.S. Tariffs, China-based shipping companies have resumed purchasing container space for goods heading for the United States. Beijing and Washington are now headed for trade negotiations in Switzerland. The trade between the two world's largest economies has plummeted since U.S. president Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 145% on China-made goods, a move that prompted China impose levies at 125% on U.S. made products. According to Flexport Logistics and Freight Forwarding, the U.S. Tariffs affected an estimated 80% goods shipped from China into the U.S. in April. Hapag-Lloyd customers cancelled 30% of their shipments to China in the last month. According to two Chinese executives from freight forwarding companies who declined to give their names because they were not authorised to talk to the media, traders began to buy more shipping capacity in late April. They then locked it up for mid-May. Four China-based companies, including some that serve large U.S. retailers like Walmart, have also said they are preparing to resume shipping goods to the U.S. within the next few weeks. This was a previously unknown development. Exporters hope that both countries will lower their tariffs soon, as the U.S. has adopted a more conciliatory tone on trade with China since late April and the officials are due to start trade talks on Saturday in Geneva. Trump announced on Thursday, in the latest indication that rates may be lowered, that it was possible to reduce the rate from 145%. "We all look forward to the relaxation of (tariffs) this month." "I believe it will be," said Liu. She is a second-generation manufacturer of toys from Dongguan, the southern export hub. She added that, until recently, about half of her orders were from customers in the United States, including Walmart. EMPTY SHELVES The shipments are not only driven by the optimism that tariffs may fall. As U.S. stores wait for the tariffs to escalate, goods such as Bluetooth speakers, toys and home furnishings that they cannot easily or quickly source elsewhere than China are stuck in China. Exporters from China have warned that if these products do not arrive by June, the shelves of U.S. stores will start to empty. "Companies have run out of stock and Trump has toned back his China talk," said Jonathan Chitayat. Genimex Group is a contract manufacturer that works with clients on designing and engineering custom mechanical, consumer, and electronic goods, from bluetooth speakers to trash bins. He said that the risk of "empty store shelves" in 30-60 days was a strong motivator for U.S. customers who would need to send some goods to China as soon as possible, regardless of whether tariffs are changed. Liu, a toy maker, announced that, after a pause of almost a full month in the shipment of orders to the U.S. Liu says that if her products are not reduced in tariffs when they arrive in the U.S., "the American consumer will bear the full burden" of additional tariff costs. Judah Levine is the head of research for Freightos. This platform allows users to book and pay for freight. He said that "one way or another, these economies are intertwined, and both sides are beginning to feel pain." The "massive decreases" in recent shipping volumes followed months of orders frontloaded in anticipation of Trump tariffs. Levine stated that "at a certain point, that will run down and...there is an expectation that the situation with tariffs will improve." Walmart has said that it did not stop purchases in a particular country or for all categories. Walmart's spokesperson stated: "We have thousands products and are working with our suppliers every day, item by product and category by category, in order to navigate this fluid environment for our members and customers." Hapag-Lloyd refused to comment on the current U.S.-China cargo bookings saying that it was a fluid situation. Dominic Desmarais is the chief solutions officer of Liya Solutions. The company connects small- and medium-sized businesses with suppliers in China who make everything from furniture to Titanium products. Freight forwarders have told him that shipping prices may increase by $500 per container once the activity picks up after May 15. Freightos estimates that a 40-foot shipping container between Shanghai and Los Angeles would cost between $2640 and $3781. Desmarais says that betting on the end of the trade war is wishful thinking. He said that it took the U.S. two years to come to an agreement with China in 2018, when Trump imposed 25% tariffs on the 80% of commodities coming from China. "I don’t think that discussions in Switzerland will make it happen." Reporting by Casey Hall from Shanghai; additional reporting by Siddharth Cavale in New York, Lisa Baertlein at Los Angeles and Lisa Jucca in London. Editing by Lisa Jucca, Kate Mayberry and Lisa Jucca.
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UK sanctions directors of an oil trading group for Russian ties
The United Kingdom announced on Friday a set of sanctions against Russia. This included freezing the assets of several directors at Coral Energy Group (now known as 2Rivers Group), an oil trading company. As leaders of the Joint Expeditionary Force security alliance in northern Europe met in Norway on Friday, a wider package targeting around 100 oil tanks from Russia's shadow fleet was announced. The government announcement of the sanctions named Ahmed Kerimov and Tahir Garayev as well as Anar Madatli and Talat Safarov. It said that they "were involved in obtaining or supporting a benefit from the Russian government" through their work at Coral Energy Group. Coral Energy has rebranded to 2Rivers Group following a merger with 2Rivers Group Management buyout Safarov, Kerimov & Madatli in 2024. Coral Energy, founded in 2010 by Garayev, has offices in Dubai and Singapore. The British government said that Coral Energy was "doing business in an area of strategic importance to the Russian government, namely its energy sector." Britain In December 2024, 2Rivers will be sanctioned . The group expressed its disappointment at that time. (Reporting and editing by Sarah Young; William James is the reporter)
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Mitsubishi Heavy expects 10% profit growth in this year due to strong defense demand
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Japan, on Friday forecast a 9.6% increase in operating profit, excluding any potential impact from U.S. Tariffs. However, the outlook for fiscal 2024-25 and earnings fell short of expectations. The company is expecting an operating profit for the year ending March 2026 of 420 billion Japanese yen, up 35.6% from the 383.2 billion yen it earned the year before. The company stated that the operating profit for the aerospace and defense segment will grow by 40% in the current fiscal year. Earnings from energy systems, including power generation equipment such as turbines, are expected to increase by 17%. Mitsubishi Heavy stated in a presentation that the forecast does not include any upside or downside risks from U.S. Tariff Policy Impact. Hisato Kozawa, Chief Financial Officer of the United States' Gas Turbine Industry, said that while some price increases were expected for parts imported for U.S. made gas turbines "we intend to minimize the direct impact by passing on prices" during a press briefing. Eisaku Ito, Chief Executive Officer of Mitsubishi Heavy, said that the company would be looking at diversifying its production sites. Ito also said that the demand for power generation systems from the company will continue to be resilient. This is due to investments in data centers and the reshoring back of manufacturing into the U.S. The total revenue for 2024-25 was 5.03 trillion yen. This is slightly higher than the average estimate of analysts based on data compiled by LSEG. However, the net income came in at 245.4 billion yen. This is below the consensus estimate, which was 267.0 billion yen. Mitsubishi Heavy shares dropped more than 7% after the release of earnings, but recovered in trading afternoon. They closed down 5.6% Friday. Mitsubishi Heavy has seen its share price more than double in the last two years, as Japan embarks on one of its largest post-war defense buildups. The company is a major producer of naval ships, missiles, and jets for Japanese forces.
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Indonesia coal exports post rare decline so far in 2025: Maguire
In 2025, Indonesian exports of thermal coke have fallen to their lowest level in three years due to weak demand from China and India, the two world's largest coal consumers. According to Kpler, the commodities intelligence firm, the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal for power production shipped out 150 millions tons of thermal coal in the first four month of 2025. This was 12% or almost 20 million tons less than the amount shipped in the same months of 2024. It was the largest year-on-year drop in data since the beginning of 2017. The lower Indonesian shipments, which account for about half of all thermal coke exports, have also lowered global thermal coal shipments by 7% or 23 million tonnes from January to April, compared to the same months last year. If coal exports continue to be relatively slow over the remainder of the year, Indonesian coal exports could decline for the first time since 2020 when COVID-19 slowed down the country's coal production and shipments. KEY MARKET CUTS Indonesia's coal trade was hampered by a weaker demand for coal from China and India. China, the world's biggest coal consumer, producer and importer, reduced its Indonesian purchases by 14 million tonnes, or 20 percent, from January to April compared with the same period in the previous year. Beijing's increased emphasis on increasing local coal mine production, along with ongoing efforts to reduce pollution, has been the main driver behind China's decreased appetite for imports. India, the world's second largest coal consumer, is also focusing on increasing domestic coal production. It has reduced its imports of Indonesian coking coal by 15 percent, or 6 million tons from January to April 2024. BROADER COAL USE SLIPS? Indonesian coal imports have decreased this year, not only from China and India but also from other historically large coal-importing countries. Japan and South Korea have imported 13 million tons from Indonesia between January and April. This compares to 17 millions tons in the same period of 2024. Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia, as well as the Philippines, have also seen a decline in coal imports to Indonesia. The continued efforts to reduce coal consumption in power generation and the increase in clean energy production instead has likely helped trim the coal demand in Asia this year and could cause further declines in coal purchase in future. Data from Ember think tank shows that coal-fired power production in Asia fell by 3% over the same period of 2024. The weak state of China’s industrial economy, which has direct trade links with partners in the region, has likely also played a part in reducing Asia’s coal consumption. The weakening of Chinese construction and heavy industry will have knock-on effects on its supply chains that span across borders, and have also chilled energy-intensive activities in neighbouring countries. The new tariffs set forth by U.S. president Donald Trump could further reduce the demand for coal in the coming months. If Asian economies choose to implement stimulus measures to counteract the impact of U.S. tariffs, this could lead to a greater industrial energy consumption, and subsequently a rise in coal consumption. OUTLIERS Some major coal consumers have not yet reduced their coal imports and consumption. Vietnam and Bangladesh have both increased their Indonesian coal imports from January to April to record levels. They are also likely to increase coal consumption and imports in the future to feed their rapidly growing energy systems. The price of natural gases, another important source of energy in many places, has also increased sharply this year. Spain, Italy and New Zealand have all seen increases in their coal imports from Indonesia, as well as a higher output of coal-fired electricity. Ember data show that even the United States increased coal-fired electric production this year by more than 20% compared to last year's levels. This is not much help for Indonesian coal exporters as the U.S. also exports coal. The recent slowdown in Indonesia's coal exports is likely to continue for at least the short term, as China and India are both expected to remain modest coal importers. This in turn could lead to a rare year-long contraction in Indonesian coal shipments and possibly a peak in coal exports globally.
Sources say that STS transfers have helped to boost Russian Arctic oil exports from China.
According to traders and Vortexa data, Russia's Arctic Oil exports to China will rise dramatically this month. This is due to a surge in ship-to -ship transfers on the seas to ensure that tankers arriving at ports are not listed as U.S. sanctioned ships.
In January, the U.S. imposed broader sanctions on all crude oil tankers such as ARCO, Novy Port, and Russian producer Gazprom.
According to traders and Vortexa Senior Analyst Emma Li, to avoid the curbs, STS transfers of cargoes take place in international waters near Singapore and Malaysia, where cargoes will be loaded onto Very Large Crude Carriers that aren't subject to sanctions, before heading to Chinese ports.
Li estimated that at least 4 million barrels Arctic oil finished STS last month and 16 millions more are arriving, or will arrive in the South China Sea, this month.
She added that China's Arctic Oil imports have risen due to the abundance of oil. However, the final volume will depend on logistical hurdles and whether Chinese refiners show interest in buying it.
Gazprom, the Russian oil exporter, did not respond immediately to a request for a comment.
Vortexa reports that China imported Arctic oil from Russia at an average of 25,000 barrels a day (bpd) in March.
China has stated that it is opposed to unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries in order to curb Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan energy revenues.
According to one trader STS transfers have been used because Chinese buyers are wary about secondary sanctions, and willing to pay more for STS cargoes.
Kpler data show that the VLCC Atila, for example, loaded 2,07 million barrels ARCO in March from two tankers sanctioned in Singapore waters and delivered the cargo in April to China's Dongying port in eastern Shandong Province.
Atila has previously been involved in STS transfers of Iranian oil.
Arctic grades, ARCO, Novy Port and Varandey, are produced in Russia’s northern regions where harsh winter weather impacts production and oil project investments require huge investment.
It is difficult to track the exports of these grades because they are usually shipped from oilfields into floating storage in Murmansk, and then sent to end users.
The STS adds to the shipping costs. The North Sea Route to China (NSR), the shorter route, is closed until July.
One trader stated that the route was very expensive and long. "The only solution is to evacuate the barrels."
The traders stated that light Arctic oil was offered at a discount to Brent benchmark prices. Previously, it had been sold at a premium.
Some of the Arctic oil cargoes will not be able to find a new home anytime soon, as they are currently being stored on vessels.
LSEG data shows that the tanker Fast Kathy, for example, loaded Arctic oil at Murmansk in March and has been cruising off Port Said (Egypt) since April 9.
Traders said that India, which was previously the largest buyer of Arctic oil due to sanctions has reduced purchases. Traders said that the majority of Arctic oil sold to India by Litasco is Varandey, supplied by Russia's Lukoil.
Lukoil didn't immediately respond to our request for comment.
The Indian authorities have banned a tanker, carrying a cargo of Russian crude oil, from conducting an STS operation near the port of Mumbai.
Myanmar and Syria are also Arctic oil buyers. Myanmar received its first shipment of Arctic oil earlier this year.
(source: Reuters)