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Maguire: Japan's utilities have cut their fossil fuel electricity to new lows.

The first half of 2025 saw fossil fuels generate a record-low share of Japan's electricity supply at the utility scale. This is a significant milestone for the energy transition of one of the largest fossil fuel users in the world.

Japan is one of the top 10 consumers and importers of coal, crude oil and natural gas, which are all used to produce the majority of energy in the fourth largest economy of the world.

Data from Ember show that the proportion of fossil fuels in Japan's electricity production has been steadily declining. In fact, it was less than 60% for the first six months of the year, according to Ember.

Solar farms and nuclear power stations have provided the remainder of the electricity and have outpaced fossil fuel sources in terms of growth so far in this decade.

By 2033, clean electricity will overtake fossil electricity if clean electricity continues to grow at the same rate as fossil electricity.

For fossil fuel exporters who have been heavily dependent on Japan's growth in demand for decades, the prospect that home-grown clean sources will supply a majority of Japan’s electricity by 2020 is a source of concern.

CLEAN RECOVERY

Ember data indicates that Japan's clean energy supplies from January to June totaled 188 terawatt-hours (TWh).

This is 47% higher than the output of clean supply during the first half of 2019 and the highest level in more than a decade.

The level of nuclear energy generation in Japan has not yet reached the peak levels seen in the early 2000s, due to the ongoing decline in this sector following the Fukushima catastrophe in 2011.

Nuclear power has been shut down in Japan since 2011. The nuclear electricity supply in 2024 will be roughly 70% lower than it was in 2010, just before the Fukushima disaster.

While nuclear power has been largely ignored, Japanese utilities have increased their generation of clean energy over the last decade.

Solar generation has increased 25-fold since 2010, while wind farms and bioenergy plants have more than doubled their output.

Clean electricity has increased its share in the total generation mix from 12% to 31% by 2024, thanks to these clean power additions.

The clean generation share in the first half 2025 has increased to 41% on average, thanks to wind farms, bioenergy plants and nuclear reactors that are gradually returning to service.

FOSSIL FIX

Japan's utilities are reducing the use of fossil fuels in electricity production, while increasing clean energy.

Since at least 2019, the amount of electricity produced by natural gas plants in January to June 2025 has been the lowest. High natural gas prices have stifled the gas use across the country.

The coal-fired power generation increased by around 4% compared to the same months of 2024, to compensate for the decline in gas electricity. Overall fossil fuel electricity supply was largely flat in comparison to a year earlier.

The reductions in fossil fuel consumption are more apparent compared to generation levels during the first half 2019.

The coal-fired electric supply in 2025's first half was 9% lower than the output of 2019's first half, while the gas-fired electrical production was 25% less.

In the next few years, Japan will continue to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. This is due to the country's ambitious goal to cut them by 46% from 2013 levels by 2030. At that time there was an explosion in fossil fuel energy generation.

Japan's fossil-fuel electricity supply contracted on average by 3% per year between 2019 and 2024. If this trend continues, fossil energy generation will drop by 30% by 2040.

Clean electricity has grown by around 6% per year since 2019. If this trend continues, the clean electricity supply will double by 2036.

This growth rate would also mean that by 2033, clean electricity would account for the majority of Japan's electric supply.

The diminishing role that coal and gas play in the electric system of a large economy is a concern for fossil fuel exporters. This is especially true as other large economies are also phasing out the use of fossil fuels.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)