Fears of a water war in India sparked by China's mega dam

India is concerned that a Chinese mega-dam planned in Tibet could reduce water flow on a major rivers by up to 85% if it's built during the dry season. This has prompted Delhi to speed up plans for its dam to counteract the effect.

Since the early 2000s, the Indian government has considered projects to control the flow from Tibet's Angsi Glacier. This water sustains over 100 million people in China, India, and Bangladesh. The plans have been stymied by the fierce and violent opposition of residents in the border state Arunachal Pradesh who fear that their villages and way of living will be destroyed by any dam.

In December, China announced it would build the largest hydropower project in the world in a border country just before the Yarlung Zangbo River crosses into India. New Delhi was worried that the long-time strategic rival – which has territorial claims in Arunachal – could weaponize the control of the river. The Siang and Brahmaputra originate in the Angsi Glacier, and are known in India as the Siang.

In May, India's largest power company moved survey material under the protection of armed police near the potential site for the Upper Siang Multipurpose Dam. If completed, this dam would be the biggest in the country. According to two sources who spoke under condition of anonymity, senior Indian officials also held meetings to accelerate construction in this year. One of these was organized by the Prime Minister's Office.

The Indian government's undated analysis of the dam's impact in China outlines Delhi's concerns. Four sources corroborate the details, and this is the first report to include them.

Beijing hasn't released detailed plans about the dam's construction, but the analysis drew on past work conducted by Indian government-affiliated institutions like the Central Water Commission and accounted for the expected size of the Chinese project, which broke ground in July and will cost nearly $170 billion.

Delhi believes the Chinese dam could allow Beijing to divert up to 40 billion cubic meters per year, which is just over a quarter of the water received at a major border crossing, according to sources and documents. This would be most evident in the months that do not include monsoons, when temperatures are high and land becomes barren. Upper Siang's 14 BCM storage capacity would allow India to release water in the dry season. According to sources and documents, the city of Guwahati would experience a 11% reduction in water supply, compared to a 25% decrease if an Indian dam was not built.

Sources said that the project could also be used to mitigate any attempt by Beijing, which would release torrents of water downriver. According to the document, and to the sources, if the dam was at its minimum drawdown - when water is stored below 50% of its height- it could absorb all excess water from a Chinese infrastructure breach. Two sources claim that India is considering the idea of keeping 30% of its dam at all times empty to accommodate surges.

In response to questions, a spokesperson from China's Foreign Ministry said that the hydropower project "has undergone rigorous scientific studies on safety and environment protection and will not negatively impact the water resources or ecology of downstream countries."

The spokesperson said that "China has always taken a responsible approach to the development and use of transboundary river systems, and has maintained a long-term relationship and communication with countries downstream such as India and Bangladesh."

Modi's Office and the Indian Ministries responsible for Water and External Affairs did not reply to questions. State-owned hydropower giant NHPC did not respond to a comment request either.

India's Foreign Ministry has confirmed that S. Jaishankar, a top diplomat in India, raised concerns over the dam when he met with his Chinese counterpart August 18. In August, a Jaishankar deputy told lawmakers that the government had taken measures to protect the lives and livelihoods in downstream areas. This included building the dam.

India was accused of weaponizing the water by Pakistan, an ally of China with whom it had a brief clash in May. Delhi suspended its participation this year in a 1960 treaty on water sharing with Islamabad, and it is now considering diverting the flow of another important river away from its neighbour downstream.

Delhi claims that the tribunal lacks jurisdiction.

DEVELOPMENT OR DESTRUCTION?

In May, when NHPC workers were moving surveying materials near Parong village, angry locals destroyed their machinery, destroyed a bridge nearby and looted tents sent by police to guard the operation.

The majority of these people are from Arunachal, the Adi, who farm paddy, sweet lime, and oranges in the misty hills and valleys that the Siang nourishes.

Villagers have installed makeshift checkpoints on regional roads in order to prevent NHPC employees from entering. This has led to security personnel trekking miles to reach the potential site of the dam, sometimes at night.

According to two sources, at least 16 Adi village are expected to disappear from the storage area. This will directly affect an estimated 10,000 people. Leaders of the community say that more than 100,000 people are affected.

Odoni Pabin, an Adi grocery store owner and mother of two, said, "The cardamom we grow, the paddy, the jackfruit, and the pear that we produce on this land, help us educate our children and provide for our family." "We will fight this dam until it is destroyed."

Arunachal chief minister has backed the dam. He is a Modi party member and has called the Chinese plan an existential danger. The project "will ensure water security and flood moderation in order to counter potential water surges", the state government stated in a press release. It added that it had decided in June that detailed compensation discussions would be held with families who could be affected.

Alo Libang is an Adi lawmaker who represents a region that would be submerged under the Indian project. He believes locals can be persuaded to relocate if they receive generous compensation.

Three sources cited instructions from Modi’s office and said that NHPC plans to spend over $3 million for education and emergency infrastructure in order to encourage villagers to relocate.

According to the Arunachal Government and dozens locals, this is a sign of progress. Three villages in the region recently agreed to allow NHPC officials to carry out dam related work.

India's history is dotted with activist movements that have slowed down large dam projects or forced them into a scale-down.

Four sources claim that even if the Upper Siang Dam is approved, it will take at least a decade for the dam to be built. This means that the project will likely be finished after China's project. Beijing is expecting to generate power in the early-to mid 2030s.

Two sources stated that the delay would make an Indian project vulnerable to a sudden release of water by Beijing during the monsoon, which could cause a flood and wash away temporary dams.

Adi activists and international experts have warned that the construction of large dams on seismically active Tibet or Arunachal can increase risks to downstream communities.

Sayanangshu modak, an expert in the India-China relationship on water at the University of Arizona, said that the Chinese "dam" is being constructed in a seismically active zone and in one where extreme weather conditions are common.

He said that extreme weather events can cause mudslides and landslides as well as glacial lake flooding. "That raises concern about dam safety... It's a legitimate concern, and India should engage China."

(source: Reuters)