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Maguire: China's rare reduction in power pollution is offset by increased US emissions

Some people have said that it's pointless for other countries to reduce their pollution, while China continues to build new coal plants and raise its own emissions.

The Chinese power sector has so far managed to achieve a rare reduction in pollution due to the use of fossil-fuels. This bodes well for those who track climate change and hope that China's massive pollution trends will soon peak.

The cuts in China were more than offset by the sharply increased emissions from power plants in America, where coal-fired electric generation in 2025 has reached a three-year-high.

Even if China's emissions drop, global pollution in the power sector will continue to rise this year due to the higher pollution load coming from America.

The U.S. offset for pollution also negates the argument it's pointless to reduce pollution when China's emissions are increasing, and shows that other countries could be closer to capping the power sector discharge of the world if they follow China's example.

COAL CUTS

Data from the energy think tank Ember show that between January and July 2024, China's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels used in power generation fell by 30 million metric tonnes.

This emission reduction represents a 1% drop from the previous year and follows two years of pollution increases in China between January and July.

China's fossil fuel power emissions have grown for nine years in a row. A modest reduction in emissions in 2025 will be a milestone in China’s efforts to reduce pollution.

The total power emissions due to fossil fuels were 3,24 billion tons CO2 from January to July 2024, down from 3,27 billion tons from January to July 2024.

The first reduction in coal-fired electricity generation since 2022 has played a key role in the drop in emissions. This has also been made possible by an increase of 14% in clean electricity production year-over-year.

The total clean electricity produced during the window of January to July was 2,445 Terawatt Hours (TWh), approximately 303 TWh higher than the amount generated in the same months last.

The electricity generated by coal-fired plants, which remain China's primary power source, was 3,277 tWh from January to July. This is a decrease of around 30 tWh or about 1% compared with the same months in 2020.

The generation of electricity in China from gas-fired power plants was also down around 1% compared to a year earlier.

US POWERING UPS

While China's power sector reduced coal consumption this year, U.S. energy firms increased it. Coal-fired electricity supply grew by 16% between January and July 2024 compared to the same period in 2019.

The total coal-fired electric supply in the United States was 435 TWh from January to July. This is up from 375 tWh one year earlier and represents the highest level since 2022.

The increase in CO2 emissions from the spike in coal consumption was 37 million tons more than in the same months of last year.

The total U.S. emissions of fossil fuels from the power sector during January-July were 978 millions tons of CO2, compared to 941 millions tons in 2024.

The increase in the coal share in the U.S. generation mix, from under 15% to almost 17% in 2025.

This increase in coal consumption was driven primarily by the rise in natural gas prices during the first months of the new year.

Gas prices are expected to be 65% higher in the first half of 2025 than they were in the same period last year.

In order to compensate for lower gas supplies, the power companies burned coal, which was cheaper, but had higher emissions. This caused the pollution surge.

CLEANING UP

In addition to the higher output of coal, U.S. utilities generated 30% more solar power from January to July than a year ago, as well as 3% more hydro and wind-powered energy.

The total U.S. generation of clean electricity from January to July increased by 6%, reaching a record high of 1,155 TWh.

The share of clean power in the U.S. electric generation mix increased to a record 44 % from January to July. This is up from a little under 43 % the previous year.

U.S. utilities still rely heavily on fossil fuels to produce the majority of their electricity, despite the fact that total electricity demand is at its highest level in decades.

Many utilities will continue to use coal in their generation mix to reduce costs, as thermal coal is still around 20% cheaper than natural gas.

It is possible that U.S. emission levels will continue to rise, pushing global pollution to new heights even if China can manage to limit its fossil fuel consumption for the remainder of the year.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)