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As Trump tariffs continue to pull markets down, Asian spot LNG prices are still at a 6-month low.
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas (LNG), which is a product of the United States, remained at its lowest level for nearly six months as President Trump's "liberation" day tariffs caused global markets to fall amid fears about a global economic recession. Average LNG price for delivery to North-east Asia in May The price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) remained at $13, the same as last week, and is now the lowest since October 11, according to industry sources. Alex Froley is a senior LNG analyst with data intelligence firm ICIS. He said that fears of slower economic growth would also impact energy prices. Around the world, countries threatened to retaliate for Trump's tariffs. China announced an additional 34% tariff on U.S. products on Friday. This is the most significant escalation of a trade war that has worsened between Beijing and Washington. Klaas Dzeman, a market analyst with Brainchild Commodity Intelligence, said: "This is not the ideal environment for China to be confronted with unseen import duties of up to 34%, and 24-26% for India. South Korea, Japan and South Korea." He said that "the widely held opinion is this will harm the global trade and industry production, reducing demand for LNG further." Froley, of ICIS, said that earlier tariffs had already affected U.S. LNG exports to China. Since February 6, no cargoes have arrived in China. On Friday afternoon, gas prices in Europe fell to their lowest levels in more than six months in response to the sharp drop in oil and stock markets. Martin Senior, the head of LNG prices at commodities pricing agency Argus, said that hedge funds with exposure to commodities and equities, as well as oil, sold gas on Thursday in order to de-risk portfolios. Oil and equities were also down. He added that "stop losses" were also activated when TTF (Dutch Title Transfer Facility) prices fell below certain thresholds. This exacerbated losses. Analysts said that the European Union is prepared to counter Trump's tariffs by implementing countermeasures. However, they added that Europe had no other choice than to continue importing U.S. LNG and ruled out retaliatory duties on this commodity. The tariffs had an indirect effect on the dollar, which weakened against other currencies. This meant that U.S. gas cargoes were becoming cheaper than those from other countries. Dozeman explained that this increased the incentive for Europe's LNG buyers to purchase more U.S. Gas to maximize the filling of storage in the months to come. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe (NWM) LNG Marker price benchmark on April 3 at $12.071/mmBtu for cargoes to be delivered in May ex-ship. This represents a $0.75/mmBtu reduction from the gas price for May at the Dutch TTF Hub. Spark Commodities set the April price for delivery at $12.044/mmBtu. Argus based its assessment on the May price of $12.07/mmBtu. Qasim Afghanistan, Spark Commodities analyst, says that the arbitrage between North-East Asia and Europe via Cape of Good Hope is continuing to encourage U.S. cargoes being delivered to Europe. On Friday, the LNG market saw a drop in the Atlantic rate for the second consecutive week, to $23,500/day. Meanwhile, the Pacific rates increased to $26,750/day.
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Maguire: Coal traders may be the rare winners of Trump's tariff war.
Coal traders may be the only ones to benefit from President Donald Trump’s new, drastic tariff regime. The new tariffs add at least 10% on the price of almost all goods imported into America. Energy providers in Asia, who have been hit by some of the most expensive new U.S. Tariffs, will be under pressure from their customers to reduce power costs. This includes many of the largest goods producers around the world. Asia's utilities can help manufacturers maintain some sales, even after the tariffs are implemented, to the largest importer in the world, by lowering the operating costs of factories. To produce the most affordable power, Asian power producers must increase the use coal and reduce the use of more expensive fuels. This would be great news for the coal miners and traders in the area, but bad news for the regional emission levels which will continue to rise as more coal is burned for electricity. HARDEST HIT The new U.S. Tariff Levels are most affecting the Asian manufacturers, with China and Vietnam being hit by new tariffs of 34 and 44 percent, respectively. China and Vietnam produce a large share of electronic, clothing, furniture, and sporting goods purchased by U.S. customers. Indonesia (32%), Cambodia (49%) Malaysia (24%), and the Philippines (17%) are other Asian countries with large manufacturing bases that export. Due to the soft consumer demand in the U.S., the companies won't be able pass on the increased costs caused by tariffs without a significant drop in sales. Many companies will instead try to absorb some of the tariff impacts themselves and find ways to cut costs to maintain a profit margin. Local governments will probably be a big help in this search for cost savings, as they will want to keep manufacturing jobs despite the new hostile trading environment. COAL FIX Coal traders are willing to assist in cost-saving efforts by providing power producers with additional volumes of thermal coal used for electricity production. According to Ember, coal is the cheapest, largest, and most efficient source of thermal energy production in Asia. It will account for 56% of the region's electricity supply in 2024. Natural gas has replaced some coal in certain countries as part of the effort to reduce pollution. It accounted for 10% of regional electric supplies last year. In the future, however, coal is likely to see a revival as utilities prioritize cost above all else in order to help manufacturers weather a tariff storm. This will mean that coal traders can supply higher volumes to coal burning hubs in the region more frequently. According to Kpler, global trade intelligence company, the largest coal consumers in the region are the region's manufacturers. In 2024, coal imports will have increased in nearly all major Asian manufacturing hubs, including China (10%); Vietnam (28%); Cambodia (26%); the Philippines (5%); and Malaysia (3%) The imports to these countries also reached record levels in 2024 despite the fact that shipments to other countries continue to fall. The combination of increasing demand from a small group of consumers is good for coal traders who can optimize their shipments. The coal volume shipped to Asia will probably increase in 2025 due to the cost-cutting initiative triggered by Trump’s new tariffs. The region's power grid is trying to reduce power costs, so coal traders should expect to see both growth in volume and margins. These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.
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CPC: Russian court orders that the Caspian oil export terminal will not be suspended by the Russian court
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said that on Friday, a Russian court fined the consortium 200,000 roubles (2,370 dollars) for oil transhipment infractions. However, it was ruled by the court that its Black Sea Export Terminal facilities would not be suspended. This decision is likely to prevent a possible fall in Kazakhstan oil production via CPC. Around 80% of Kazakhstan's exports are oil. Sources in the industry told of a frenzy of diplomatic activity before the court's ruling regarding the pipeline operations between Russia and Kazakhstan. Transneft, the Russian oil pipeline monopoly, announced on Thursday that Nikolai Tokarev met with Askhat Khassenov from KazMunayGaz in Moscow. Both companies are major CPC shareholders. Transneft didn't mention CPC in its statement regarding the meeting. After a series of inspections in response to a major oil spill that occurred in December, the Russian transport regulator ordered CPC, which includes Chevron, Exxon Mobil and other shareholders, to suspend its operations at two moorings on its Black Sea Export Terminal. CPC reported on Friday that the court had, after considering the inspection, found the Russian portion of the CPC consortium responsible and imposed a fine of 200,000 Russian roubles, without suspending the exporting facilities. When the CPC export terminal will resume normal operations was not immediately apparent. CPC refused to comment on timing. The CPC pipeline was set to export 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in April, which is approximately 6.5 millions metric tons. CPC is a major oil-export route for Kazakhstan. Due to the rising production of the Tengiz oilfield, owned by Chevron, Kazakhstan has exceeded its export quotas in the OPEC+ producer groups, which include OPEC, Russia, and other countries. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries have also pressed Kazakhstan to reduce production in order to meet its quotas. OPEC+ announced on Thursday that it would increase output before the scheduled date, indicating its confidence in non-compliant member countries to reduce production.
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Australia PM: Working on plan to sell Darwin Port to Australian hands
The Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced on Friday that his government is working on a proposal for Australian superannuation companies to purchase the strategically located Darwin Port from its Chinese owner, on grounds of national interest. In 2015, then-President Barack Obama criticized the sale of the port commercial on a 99 year lease to the Chinese company Landbridge. In the north of the city, around 2,000 U.S. Marines train for six months a year. Albanese stated in an interview with ABC Darwin Friday evening that "we want it in Australian hands". He said that he preferred that the money be raised through superannuation or another vehicle, which doesn't involve direct taxpayers. However, if that's not possible, he was willing to accept direct taxpayer involvement. Albanese, who is in the middle of an election campaign said that his opponent, Liberal Leader Peter Dutton was expected to announce his party's intention to buy back the Port if elected on Saturday. Albanese stated that his government has been working for some time on a plan to sell the port to "Australians" and had spoken to potential buyers. He said that if the Commonwealth needed to intervene directly, he would be willing to do so. As it intensifies defence cooperation with the United States, Australia is expanding its northern military base, which will rotately host U.S. fighter jets and bombers. Albanese stated that "we live in a world of uncertainty at the moment. The idea that the major port located in northern Australia would be owned by a foreign entity is not in Australia’s national interest." Landbridge stated that there were no discussions on the port. Terry O'Connor said, in an email statement sent on Friday, that the port was not for sale. "Landbridge or Darwin Port has not been involved in any discussion with the Federal Government regarding our lease arrangements." Reporting by Kirstyn Needham
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Sources: Indian oil tanker banned from transferring Russian oil to sea
According to two sources, and data from ship tracking, an old tanker that was blocked by Indian authorities but loaded with Russian oil is now transferring the cargo to another ship to complete delivery. Sources said that the Andaman Skyes will transfer its crude oil cargo to the vessel Ozanno flying the flag of Sao Tome & Principe. India and China are still keen buyers of Russian oil, despite the fact that many have avoided it since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. India was the largest buyer of Russian crude oil by sea, accounting for 35% of India's crude imports in 2020. The Andaman Skies, which is more than 20 years old, was denied entry into the Indian port of Vadinar last week because its seaworthiness certification had not been issued by a classification agency approved in India. LSEG shipping data indicates that the vessel with the Tanzanian flag, which is carrying around 100,000 metric tonnes (or about 800,000 barrels), of Varandey Russian Oil sold by Lukoil in the northern port Murmansk sits off the port Mumbai in western India. Sources said that the Aframax tanker Ozanno (built in 2008) is expected to deliver cargo to Indian Oil Corp. at Vadinar next week. IOC has not responded to a comment request. According to Indian port entry regulations, tankers older than 20 years must be certified as seaworthy by an organization that is a member of International Association of Classification Societies or by an authorized entity by India's maritime administration. Indian refiners purchase Russian oil delivered, and the seller arranges for ship, insurance, and other services. The United States and the United Nations do not sanction the Andaman Skyes or Ozanno. India adheres with United Nations sanctions. LSEG data shows that the Ozanno delivered 100,000 metric tonnes of Urals to Sikka, a port in India's western Gujarat State. Western nations have sanctioned hundreds of ships that they suspect Russia uses to circumvent price caps on crude oil exports and other cargoes. These vessels are not covered or regulated by the conventional Western insurance companies, which poses the risk of unreliable tankers and environmental damages in the event that a shipwreck occurs. The Norwegian authorities are investigating a small Norwegian company that issued fake insurance for dozens of old oil tankers owned by Russia.
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Maguire: Coal traders may be the rare winners of Trump's tariff war.
Coal traders may be the only ones to benefit from President Donald Trump’s new, drastic tariff regime. The new tariffs add at least 10% on the price of almost all goods imported into America. Energy providers in Asia, who have been hit by some of the most expensive new U.S. Tariffs, will be under pressure from their customers to reduce power costs. This includes many of the largest goods producers around the world. Asia's utilities can help manufacturers maintain some sales, even after the tariffs are implemented, to the largest importer in the world, by lowering the operating costs of factories. To produce the most affordable power, Asian power producers must increase the use coal and reduce the use of more expensive fuels. This would be great news for the coal miners and traders in the area, but bad news for the regional emission levels which will continue to rise as more coal is burned for electricity. HARDEST HIT The new U.S. Tariff Levels are most affecting the Asian manufacturers, with China and Vietnam being hit by new tariffs of 34 and 44 percent, respectively. China and Vietnam produce a large share of electronic, clothing, furniture, and sporting goods purchased by U.S. customers. Indonesia (32%), Cambodia (49%) Malaysia (24%), and the Philippines (17%) are other Asian countries with large manufacturing bases focused on exports that were also hit by steep new tariffs. Due to the soft consumer demand in the U.S., the companies won't be able pass on the increased costs caused by tariffs without a significant drop in sales. Many companies will instead try to absorb some of the tariff impacts themselves and find ways to cut costs to maintain a profit margin. Local governments will probably be keen to help in this search for cost savings, as they will want to maintain jobs in the manufacturing industry despite the new hostile trading environment. COAL FIX Coal traders are willing to assist in cost-saving efforts by providing power producers with additional volumes of thermal coal used for electricity production. According to Ember, coal is the cheapest, largest, and most efficient source of thermal energy production in Asia. It will account for 56% of regional electric supply in 2024. Natural gas has replaced some coal in certain countries as part of the effort to reduce pollution. It accounted for 10% of regional electric supplies last year. In the future, coal is likely to see a revival as utilities prioritize cost above all else, in an attempt to help manufacturers weather a tariff storm. This will mean that coal traders can supply higher volumes to coal burning hubs in the region more frequently. According to Kpler, global trade intelligence company, the largest coal consumers in the world are the manufacturers of the region. In 2024, coal imports will have increased in nearly all major Asian manufacturing hubs, including China (10%); Vietnam (28%); Cambodia (26%); the Philippines (5%); and Malaysia (3%) The imports to these countries also reached record levels in 2024 despite the fact that shipments to other countries continue to fall. The combination of increasing demand from a small group of consumers is a good thing for traders of coal, as they can optimize their shipments towards a limited number of destinations. The coal volume shipped to Asia will probably increase in 2025 due to the cost-cutting initiative triggered by Trump’s new tariffs. The region's power grid is trying to reduce power costs, so coal traders should expect to see both growth in volume and margins. These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.
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Executives, trade and labor associations comment on Trump's reciprocal duties
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he will impose a baseline 10% tariff on all imports into the United States, and higher duties for some of the biggest trading partners. This could escalate a global trade war and upset the global economy. The latest responses from business executives, unions and trade associations. Companies On Holding We've noted the tariffs announced and we are continually monitoring the changing situation and policy changes. "Our global value chain and supply chain is well-positioned." GERMANY'S FRESENIUS "We... strongly support the proposal to exclude pharmaceuticals from the reciprocal tariff, as such a tariff could potentially lead to shortages of important medicines for American patients." STEEL GROUP APERAM We will examine the feasibility of moving some of our production to the U.S. if we are able to export limited quantities from the EU. The current lack of predictability in regulatory matters creates a hostile business environment both on the US and European sides. STELLANTIS The automaker announced that it would temporarily stop production in some of its Canadian assembly plants and Mexican assembly factories, including its Windsor assembly facility in Canada. ANTONIO BARAVALLE is the CEO of LAVAZZA We had planned to increase the local production (in the U.S.A.) by 100%. "We're ready to go... but there's this other element to investigate, the duties for Brasil... If they put 10% on Brazil, then the duty (of 20%) is already half. The coffee maker produces about 50% of the amount it sells locally in the U.S. FERRARI The purchase contracts for Ferraris contain standard and clear clauses that allow the company to adjust the price in the event of a change in the market conditions before the vehicle is delivered. A Ferrari spokesperson confirmed that new tariffs would also be applied to Ferrari cars that were ordered in the past but have not yet been delivered to the U.S. MOTOFUMI SHITARA, CEO, YAMAHA MOTOR "Our exports will certainly be affected." We will have to raise prices or reduce costs if these tariffs are extended over time, even for vehicles. MAERSK "We expect our customers to be more careful about their stock levels." We're likely going to see some air freight rush orders in the U.S. very soon, before the tariffs go into effect. We will also see a rise in the demand for bonded warehouses as customers want to delay clearing their goods until they have more certainty." GERRESHEIMER Tariffs are affecting primarily our exports to the U.S. from our Mexico-based plant. Injection vials are one example. We will pass on these customs fees to our customers as an additional cost. We will be able, if necessary and if customs duties remain in place for a longer period of time, to move our capacities." MASSIMO BATTAINI is the CEO of PRYSMIAN The announcement seems to have had a positive effect on the local production. The tariffs are applied to the finished products and removes any risk of U.S. producers being undercut by foreign production. ANDERS VINDEGG HEAD OF MEDIA RELATIONS, HYDRO "We work actively from Norway as well as in Brussels, the EU to inform and work actively with organisations and other initiatives that we are a part of in order to leverage the importance Norwegian aluminium for Europe." ASSOCIATIONS IPC, A Global Association for Electronics Manufacturing "We are pleased with President Trump's focus on revitalizing American defense industry, and his commitment to strengthen American manufacturing. Tariffs won't achieve this goal...Trade essential for supply-chain resilience and innovation. Tariffs will only increase costs and drive production overseas. RETAIL INDUSTRY LEADER ASSOCIATION The President's plan will not only hit the budget of every family, but also American innovation and national security. These newly announced tariffs - and the anticipated retaliatory duties on American businesses - risk destabilizing U.S. economic growth and manufacturing. EUROCOMMERCE, EUROPEAN RETAIL INDUSTRY BODGE "EuroCommerce urges the EU and U.S. Administrations to engage constructively in dialogue. In the event that negotiations fail, EU can use its legal authority to take action against unfair trade practices by a third country. The EU has a wide range of tools to help it address the situation. International Apparel Federation The announcement by the U.S. Government of high taxes on trade with the rest is a shock to the global apparel industry. This unnecessarily creates an entirely new, often irrational world that affects billions of dollars in investments and the lives and livelihoods of tens and millions of people who work in our industry worldwide. Someone will pay the price at some point." CANADIAN STEEL ASSOCATION To reduce its dependence, the Canadian Steel Industry urgently needs the adoption of border measures to address unfair trade in steel in Canada, and help recapture the Canadian Market for our industry, workers, and communities. The Spanish Association of Olive Oil Exporters This 20% is a serious disadvantage for the Spanish olive oil industry, as compared to other countries that produce olive oil but do not belong to the European Union. "98% (of the olive oil consumed by Americans) is imported, so these tariffs would result in an increased purchase price which will be paid by U.S. consumers." consumers." KEVIN C RAVEN, CEO of ADS GROUP on AEROSPACE COMPONENTS We are not sure if the exemption from all tariffs (on items classified as airworthy by regulators) is still in place and if these tariffs are applicable or not. This could make the situation worse. COPA-COGECA EU FARMING GROUPS The introduction of additional tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and drive up prices. It would also limit the market access of farmers and agricooperatives from both sides of Atlantic. This will have significant economic implications for the agricultural industry. ANTHONY BRUN, HEAD OF FRENCH GROWERS ASSOCIATION (UGVC) "One might have been frightened by much higher tariffs. However, this risk remains and is associated with a possible conflict over bourbon whisky. Already, we face tariffs from China. Now, there is the U.S. and the consequences are going to be brutal for wine growers. SIGRID de VRIES, Director General, European Automobile Manufacturers' Association "We urge both leaders to meet immediately to find a resolution to any issues that prevent free and fair trading between historical allies, and to allow the EU-US relations to flourish again." SWISS BUSINESS GROUP ECONOMISSE "We must prevent a further escalation in the trade conflict. Swiss economic diplomacy and the Federal Council are urged to find quick solutions with the U.S. Government at the negotiation table. "From an economic perspective, the U.S. tariffs on Switzerland are not comprehensible - rather the opposite." DIRK JANDURA HEAD OF GERMANY EXPORTERS ASSOCIATION (BGA) "We'll have to pass on these tariffs as price increases and this will impact turnover in many instances." It is an economic dead end that will result in welfare losses on both sides of Atlantic. Reporting by Bureax; compiled by Mrinalika, Roy, Pasquini, Alessandro, and Linda Pasquini. Editing by Alan Barona and Milla Nissi.
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Caspian Oil Pipeline Consortium prepares for court battle with Russia over stoppage orders
Three industry sources said that the Western-backed Caspian Pipeline Consortium was preparing to take on a Russian court to challenge a regulatory order which has crippled their export capabilities and threatens to cut off oil flow to global markets. After a series of inspections in response to an oil spill that occurred on the Black Sea, the Russian transport regulator ordered CPC, which includes Chevron, Exxon Mobil and others, to suspend its operations at two moorings. A court in Russia will review the decision of the regulator. Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the CPC intends to contest the decision during the hearings. The CPC declined comment. Rostransnadzor did not respond to a comment request. CPC is a major oil export route in Kazakhstan. This is due to the fact that the country has exceeded its export quotas, primarily because of the production increase from the Chevron-led Tengiz Oilfield. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries have also pressed Kazakhstan to reduce production in order to meet its quotas. OPEC+ announced on Thursday that it would increase its output before the scheduled date, indicating the group's confidence in non-compliant member countries to reduce their output. Traders estimate that the CPC pipeline which transports about 1% of global oil supply could lose 50% of its capacity, if it is only allowed to use one berth. The CPC pipeline was set to export 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in April. This is approximately 6.5 millions metric tons. Therefore, more than 800,000. barrels could be lost per day. The traders also stated that the oil production of Kazakhstan, which exports 80% of the total oil through this route, will decline if these restrictions are in place for longer than a week. CPC announced this week that the restrictions would continue at the terminal until the irregularities discovered by the watchdog and which were not made public are addressed. In the past, Russia has imposed restrictions on the exports of the consortium due to bad weather and technical problems. A court in Novorossiisk, Russia, ordered CPC to stop the terminal operation for 30 days because of its documentation on oil spills. Benjamin Godwin is a partner of PRISM Strategic Intelligence in London, an investment advisory company. The pipeline is used by major energy companies in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere. The restrictions were implemented after U.S. president Donald Trump expressed his displeasure with Russia for the slow pace of peace talks in Ukraine and threatened to impose secondary duties on Russian oil buyers. Tengizchevroil is Chevron's Kazakhstan-based oil venture. In an email, it stated that the company was focused on ensuring safe and reliable operations. It referred any further questions to CPC. On Wednesday, Russia, the second largest oil exporter in the world, imposed further restrictions on a major oil export route. It suspended a mooring from the Black Sea port Novorossiisk, just a day after CPC's restrictions took effect. Mark Potter, David Evans and Mark Potter are responsible for reporting.
Russia's Yamal LNG gets new tanker, LSEG information programs
Russia's melted gas plant Yamal LNG, led by Novatek, has acquired a brand-new gas provider for shiptoship operations near the Arctic port of Murmansk, shiptracking LSEG information showed on Thursday.
According to the information, the tanker called North Moon is located near the island of Kildin in the Barents Sea, where LNG dispatched from Yamal LNG is being re-loaded from ice-class Arc7 tankers.
Ship-to-ship transfers generally involve moving LNG from ice-class tankers on to conventional ones, but can also be utilized to complicate cargo tracking.
Yamal LNG restarted the operations in the Murmansk region last November.
Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine in addition to shortages of gas providers are a challenge for Russia in its pursuit of raising its share on international LNG marker to 0% of the international LNG market by 2030-2035, compared to around 8% at present.
Nord Moon was built in 2024 and is owned by Singapore-registered Arctic Emerald no. 2 LNG Shipping, operated by Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL).
Russia, the world's fourth largest LNG manufacturer behind the U.S., Australia and Qatar, currently has two massive LNG plants: the Novatek-led Yamal LNG, which produced around 20 million tons in 2015, and Gazprom's Sakhalin-2, with an output of more than 10 million loads in 2015.
Novatek's another plant, Arctic LNG 2, has been having a hard time to offer freights despite starting operations in late 2023. An market source informed Reuters last October that Novatek shut down commercial operations at Arctic LNG 2 without any plans to restart it during winter season.
(source: Reuters)