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Bousso: The oil fortress of China will change the global order.

China surprised the oil industry during the Iran War, using powerful levers in order to protect itself from the largest energy shock for decades. It established itself as an independent, opaque and massive force on the global energy market. China's efforts to counter the "energy supply shock" -- a sharp cut in crude imports, a restriction on exports of refined fuels, and a reliance on its domestic stocks -- culminated ten years of campaigning to reduce China's heavy reliance on foreign energy supplies. This gives a glimpse of how future crises might unfold. China's assertive policy, despite the lack of transparency surrounding many Beijing's policies, points to a future where energy market blind spots could be more important than visible data.

It also suggests we may be entering a new era where China's energy dynamic is a weapon, both offensive and defensive - rather than a vulnerability.

DIAL UP or DIAL DOWN

China was insulated from the price volatility following the war in Iran that began on February 28. Brent crude soared from $72 to $118 a barrel in late March after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. By early July, it had returned to its pre-war level. In recent days, the global benchmark rose again as U.S. - Iran strikes increased. Beijing stopped purchasing as prices increased. Customs data revealed that June deliveries fell by more than 41% compared to a year ago, reaching 7.12 million barrels a day (bpd), their lowest level since Oct. 2016. This continued a steep decline in May. The magnitude of the slowdown that caught many analysts and traders off guard was a crucial factor in allowing the global economy absorb the loss of more than 13 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern exports.

This shift was particularly striking, given China's significance to the world oil markets. In 2025, China imported an unprecedented 11,55 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly two thirds of its total oil consumption and 16 percent of the global demand. This dependence made China highly vulnerable to disruptions in Gulf supply. Beijing was well-prepared for the crisis. China's 4,4% increase in crude oil imports was largely due to an aggressive stockpiling program that resulted in an estimated 1.3 to 1.5 billion barrels of crude in storage. This is equivalent to over 100 days worth of imports. However, reducing?imports is only one part of the strategy. China suspended the export of refined products in March to ensure that its domestic market is well-supplied. The controversial move concerned Asian countries such as?Australia and the Philippines who were already struggling with acute fuel shortages.

Beijing will export around 800,000 barrels per day of fuels by 2025. This is about 12% of Asian refined oil imports. In July, the government eased some of its restrictions to relieve Asia's fuel markets. The episode showed how quickly Beijing could tighten supply if conditions worsened again.

OIL FORTRESS MINDSET What is China's strongest line of defense -- its huge oil stockpile -- was only deployed sparingly, suggesting Beijing has considerable dry powder.

Beijing does not provide official data about inventory levels and movements. Traders and policymakers must rely on indirect indicators to get a picture. Calculations based on crude exports and domestic production less refinery throughput suggest that inventories declined between April and July by a modest rate of 500 000 to 1 million barrels per day. Beijing reduced refining instead, which led to a limited inventory draw. The June throughput, at 12.5 million?bpd was 18% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest since March 2020 when COVID-19 reached its peak. China's capacity to release stocks on a larger scale remains untested. The Hormuz Crisis showed that Beijing has a tool to radically alter the global oil balance. Beijing has also steadily decreased its dependence on oil imports, by increasing domestic production. This reached a record of 4.3 million bpd in last year. Electric vehicles are reducing demand and reducing its strategic importance.

These trends, taken together, suggest that China's position in the global energy system is changing.

PRICE TAKER TO PRICES MAKER

China has been viewed as the largest oil consumer in the world for decades. Its consumption was heavily influenced by global conditions. Iran's crisis proved that it could also affect those conditions. China's ability to quickly adjust imports and exports, up or down, effectively transforms it into a price maker. This role is traditionally associated with major producers like OPEC, Russia, and more recently the U.S.

Oil is not the only issue.

China has shown that it is less dependent on international energy markets by demonstrating its ability to withstand a major shock in the supply of fuel while reshaping global and regional fuel flows. This marks a significant break from the deep interdependence of energy that characterized the last two decades. This resilience is obvious for Beijing but a less dependent energy relationship creates new frictions. China's ability to withstand global shocks, and influence market balances in its own way, could lead to tensions with the U.S. The greatest impact of the Iran 'war may not have been the chaos it caused, but rather the fact that China has the ability to handle such shocks on its own. This could have a profound impact on the global oil markets, as well as the balance of power in the world.

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(source: Reuters)