Latest News

Maguire: Turkey's increasing power pollution is a sign for the future

In 2024, Turkey overtook Germany as Europe’s leading polluter of fossil fuels in power production. This marked a significant shift in the main polluting centres away from Europe’s traditional industrial centers to its edges.

The rise of Turkey in terms of pollution extends far beyond its power. In recent years, the production of energy-intensive products such as steel and chemicals in Turkey has increased while that of Germany has decreased.

The divergence of smokestack patterns highlights a change in location for Europe's most polluting sectors, moving from areas with strict emission limits and overloaded power grids into regions with less stringent pollution standards and rapidly growing energy supplies.

This means that pollution trackers must now extend their monitoring beyond Europe's industrial heartland and into emerging economies, where policies may conflict with climate change goals.

Emissions Toll

According to Ember, the energy think tank, Turkey's electricity sector will discharge 154,5 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2024 from fossil fuel based power generation.

This is the first time since decades that Germany has not been Europe's biggest emitter of CO2.

Turkey's dependence on coal as the main source of power and electricity is the key factor behind its swelled power pollution.

In 2024, coal-fired power stations will generate around 35% (or more) of Turkey's electricty. This is the second highest coal share in major European economies after Poland.

In addition, Turkey's coal-fired electricity output reached its highest level ever in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of growth.

This coal consumption trend is in contrast to that of Germany, Poland, and other coal-consuming countries where coal usage has been steadily declining this decade.

In fact, Turkey is the only major country to have seen a growth in fossil fuel emissions by 2024. This was due to its expansion of the use coal as a power source while other major European countries reduced their coal usage.

Ember reports that Turkey's fossil fuel emissions increased by approximately 11 million tonnes of CO2 or 7.5% in 2024 compared to 2023.

This compares with declines in fossil-fuel power emissions of 9% for Germany, 12% for Italy and 13% for the United Kingdom by 2024.

STRUCTURAL CHANGES

The trends in emissions for the power sector is a sign that broader changes are taking place across Europe.

Germany, Europe's former industrial superpower, has dramatically reduced its output of key products, such as steel and fertilizers, due to high electricity costs and natural gas shortages, since Russia's invasion in Ukraine 2022.

Over the same time period, production of these same industrial ingredients in Turkey has increased. A large population, as well as policy support for sectors that create jobs, has spurred growth across many industries.

The sharp differences in electricity and power prices between the two countries have also been a factor in these industrial shifts.

According to Eurostat, the average household electricity price in Turkey will be less than 10 cents per kilowatt-hour (KWh) during the first half 2024. In Germany, this is nearly 40 cents/KWh.

The importance of different economic growth rates has also been emphasized.

According to the International Monetary Fund, since 2020, Turkey has experienced an average annual growth of 5.3% in its gross domestic product, compared with less than 1% for Germany.

Turkey's GDP is expected to grow by 3.4% per year between now and the end decade. Germany will only see a 1% growth.

These projections of growth should continue the trend of industrial relocations from Germany to Turkey in the coming years.

To maintain a competitive edge, Turkey's electricity costs must be lower than those in northern Europe where the industries are still struggling with lower natural gas volumes compared to a few short years ago.

This means that Turkey's energy producers will continue to be heavily reliant upon coal to meet their needs. It should keep the overall cost of energy lower than anywhere else in the region, even if this leads to an increase in emissions.

These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)