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India's diesel exports in May to SE Asia reached a multi-year record on the back of higher margins

According to three sources and shiptrackers, India's diesel exports for May will be the highest in four years. Traders are looking to make more money in Asia, while high freight costs have deterred shipments from Europe.

Diesel from India is increasing in Asia, which has a cooling effect on spot premiums. It also puts pressure on derivatives markets. In Europe, the fuel supply is tightening and prices are rising.

Data from shiptracking sources LSEG Kpler Vortexa, and two trade sources show that the India-Southeast Asia route has seen a significant increase in shipments, with 600,000 metric tonnes (4,47 million barrels), or more, this month. Kpler data shows that such levels were last observed at the end 2021.

The data revealed that the majority of volumes were headed for Singapore or Malaysia.

LSEG data revealed that the amount of Indian diesel bound to Europe in May was approximately 500,000 tons.

James Noel Beswick, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that the re-direction east of Indian diesel barrels has had two effects.

He said that the first thing it did was to flood the Singaporean market. This led to a rapid rebound in local stocks and put downward pressure on diesel prices since late April.

He added that the decline in Indian supply has caused June ICE gasoil to increase for Europe.

Asian cash premiums for 10-ppm sulphur diesel LSEG data shows that crude oil prices fell to a seven-week low of 20 cents a barrel in the early part of this week, while refinery margins struggled to stay above $16 a barrel.

ARBITRAGE

LSEG data shows that the average discount for the east-west spread in April and may was $22 per ton and $20 per ton respectively. Traders said such levels made it slightly more profitable to sell east than west.

They added that lower shipping costs helped to push more Indian products into Southeast Asia.

SSY Tanker's data on LSEG Workspace shows that the cost of chartering a vessel capable of carrying 40,000 tonnes diesel along the India-Northwest Europe routes has risen to $2.35million in the last week. This is equivalent to $59 a ton.

The data showed that, in comparison, shipping costs for a vessel of similar size on the India-Singapore routes were less than one million dollars.

Ivan Mathews, Vortexa's APAC analyst, stated that India's diesel output also increased in May, after Reliance Industries restarted the crude unit at its Jamnagar refinery. This led to an increase in exports.

Two Singaporean trade sources have said that India is likely to export more diesel next month as the local demand will fall during monsoon. Two Singapore-based trade sources said that the demand for diesel could fall by more than 500,000 tons.

(source: Reuters)