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India's diesel exports in May to Southeast Asia are at a multi-year high on the back of higher margins

According to three sources and shiptrackers, India's diesel exports for May will be at least four times higher than they were in the previous year. This is because traders are looking to make more money in Asia, and higher freight costs have deterred shipments from Europe.

Diesel exports from India - one of the biggest suppliers in Asia - are lowering spot premiums in Asia, putting pressure on derivatives markets and reducing fuel availability in Europe.

Shiptracking data from LSEG Kpler Vortexa, and two trade sources revealed that the India-Southeast Asia route saw a shipment increase of 600,000 metric tonnes (4,47 million barrels) this month.

Kpler data revealed that such levels will last until the end of 2021.

The data revealed that the majority of volumes were headed for Singapore or Malaysia.

LSEG data revealed that the amount of Indian diesel destined for Europe in May was approximately 500,000 tons.

James Noel Beswick, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that the re-direction east of Indian diesel barrels has had two effects.

He said that the first thing it did was to flood the Singaporean market. This led to a rapid rebound in local stocks and put downward pressure on diesel prices since late April.

He said that the decline in Indian supply has caused June ICE gasoil to increase for Europe.

Asian cash premiums for 10-ppm sulphur diesel LSEG data shows that crude oil prices fell to a low of 20 cents a barrel in the first week of this week. Meanwhile, refining margins struggled to stay above $16 - despite the price.

ARBITRAGE

LSEG data shows that the average discount for the east-west spread in April and may was $22 per ton and $20 per ton respectively. Traders said such levels made it slightly more profitable for sellers if they looked east rather than west.

They added that lower shipping costs helped to push more Indian products into Southeast Asia.

SSY Tanker's data on LSEG Workspace shows that the cost of chartering a medium-range ship carrying 40,000 tonnes of diesel along the India-Northwest Europe routes jumped from $2.05million last month to $2.35million in the past seven days, or $59 a ton.

The data revealed that, in comparison, the shipping costs for a vessel of similar size on the India-Singapore routes were less than one million dollars.

Ivan Mathews of Vortexa, head of APAC Analysis, stated that India's diesel output also increased in May, after Reliance Industries restarted its crude unit at Jamnagar. He added that the early start of monsoon season may have dampened domestic consumption.

He said that these factors resulted in more diesel barrels being available for export.

Two Singaporean trade sources have said that India is likely to export more diesel in the next month, as monsoon season intensifies. Two Singapore-based trade sources said that the local demand may drop by more than 500,000 tons.

(source: Reuters)