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Maguire: Germany's weak wind output will continue into 2026.

Germany, Europe's biggest wind power producer, has been suffering from subpar wind energy production for years due to wind speeds below average at the turbine level.

The total German wind-powered electric output dropped by around 4% from the previous year in 2025, following a growth of less than 1% annually?in 2024. This was despite Germany's wind power capacity increasing steadily every year for more than a decade.

Recent forecasts by LSEG for wind power production indicate that generation levels will be below the long-term norm throughout the first quarter this year.

The first quarter of the year is traditionally when Germany's production of wind peaks. Therefore, any projected shortfalls in wind generation will strain the national utilities who must make up for the wind shortages by increasing their other sources.

LONG STRETCH

According to the think tank Ember's estimates, total wind-powered energy production in 2025 will be around 131 Terawatt Hours (TWh). This compares with annual outputs of 136.2TWh for 2024 and 135.2TWh for 2023.

Monthly, the wind output was below that of the previous year for?the first four months in 2025 and again in December.

The German wind power capacity increased by the most in 2017 despite this underperformance.

According to Germany's Federal Network Agency, the total capacity of wind energy in Germany will increase by 4.9 gigawatts to 77.7 GW by 2025.

Germany's energy system has also upgraded its existing wind power fleet in order to increase the generation of each wind farm. Older turbine blades have been replaced with larger and more efficient models across the country.

In the early part of 2026, however, the German wind network will again be affected by long periods of low wind speeds.

According to the German Meteorological Service (DMS), the average wind speed at turbine level was below 5.5 meters per seconds (12,3 miles per hour) during the first quarter 2025. This was the lowest reading in that time period for more than 50 years.

According to the weather service PredictWind for 2026, average wind speeds are between 4 and 5 meters per second at key?wind farms. This is below the long-term average between 6 and 7 metres per second.

The Earth's Poles are experiencing higher temperatures than the average global temperature. This is reducing pressure differences between Central Europe, the Arctic and other parts of the world. It also results in less wind for long periods.

BALANCING ACT

Since 2023, wind farms are Germany's largest source of electricity. Therefore, sustained periods of lower-than-expected production have ripple effects on its entire power network.

Ember data shows that in 2025, utilities will increase gas-fired power by nearly 6%, to reach the highest level since 2021. This is to compensate for wind output reductions and a 19% drop year-over-year in hydropower generation.

In 2026, after a near 40% increase in regional natural-gas prices this year alone, utilities will probably turn to more affordable generation sources to make up for system shortages.

LSEG data shows that coal-fired power plants are most likely to be the source of replacement energy. They have so far increased their generation levels in 2026 compared with the same period in the year 2025.

Nevertheless, sustained periods of increased coal-fired power generation will result in an increase in emissions in the power sector.

Ember data indicates that Germany's coal-fired plants emit approximately 1 million metric tons per terawatt of electricity. Gas plants, on the other hand, emit around 460,000 tonnes of CO2.

Even a three month period of increased coal-fired production could cause a significant increase in power pollution and undermine ongoing efforts to clean the energy sector.

As Germany's electricity consumption peaks early in the year, due to increased heating requirements, it is likely that the fossil fuel power stations will continue to produce at a high level for the next few months.

Wind speeds would have to increase in order for this trend to be reversed. This would allow utilities access more wind energy and power networks could reduce the output of fossil fuel plants.

For the moment, however, there are few brisk wind gusts, which means that one of the largest networks of wind power in the world is a burden, rather than an asset, to Germany's energy system.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)