Latest News

What does the Houthis' threat to attack Red Sea shipping mean for the oil markets?

The Houthis, who are Iran-aligned in Yemen, announced on Monday they would stop ships from Israel leaving the Red Sea. This comes after Israel re-initiated its military strikes against Iran.

Here's why it matters, and what it means to the Iran War and the global energy crisis.

How big is the risk to global energy markets?

The Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, since Israel and the United States attacked it on February 28, has disrupted the majority of?oil exports and other energy from the Gulf. Prices have risen and there's been a major energy shock.

Saudi Arabia responded by diverting 70% of its daily crude oil exports to Yanbu, a Red Sea port.

This has helped to lower the global oil price.

A sustained disruption of Red Sea shipping by the Houthis, including possible attacks on ports or shipping, could be a major problem.

According to a Houthi source, preventing Israeli ships transiting the Red Sea is "a first step". However, if the escalation continues, the group will stop all ships headed towards Israel and take other measures.

The group that attacked the shipping during the Gaza War stated its target as?Israel-linked vessels', which included any vessel owned by any company using Israeli ports. Its attacks on these ships discouraged most companies from using this route.

Who are the HOUTHIS?

In the 1990s the Houthis emerged in north Yemen as a military, religious and political movement, which fought guerrilla warfare against the government of Sanaa.

The Zaydi sect is a branch of Shi'a Islam. After the Arab Spring in 2011, they strengthened their ties with Iran, seizing on the instability to take over the capital city, thereby sabotaging a Gulf-backed plan for political transition.

Saudi Arabia, along with its Arab allies, launched a military operation months later in order to restore the government that was ousted and remove a group they viewed as an agent of?Iran - Riyadh’s arch regional enemy.

The Houthis, as Yemen's civil conflict dragged on to a standstill, attacked Saudi Arabian oil installations and other infrastructure with drones and missiles.

The truce that was agreed between the warring sides in Yemen for 2022 has mostly held.

AREN'T THE HOUTHIS IRANIAN PROXIES?

Iran supports the Houthis in its regional "Axis of Resistance", including Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shiite militias. However, its ties to the Yemeni movement is less clear than those with these other groups.

Houthis don't recognise Iran's supreme religious leader as their ultimate authority, like Hezbollah or Iraqi groups. Although ideologically aligned to Iran, its motivations are mostly domestic.

Hezbollah is said to have helped Iran arm, fund and train the Houthis. The Houthis claim to be independent and deny that they are Iranian proxy forces.

What happened when the HOUTHIS attacked RED SEA SHIPS before?

The Houthis, who claim to be supporting the Palestinians, began shooting at Israel after the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 and Israel's destructive campaign in Gaza.

The Houthi attack in the Red Sea caused global shipping to be severely disrupted, forcing Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and other major companies to divert through Africa, a much longer, more costly route.

The U.S. led mission to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea included repeated strikes against Houthi targets and a defensive offensive that destroyed hundreds of drones, missiles, and other?targets.

Some Houthi attacks continued through the summer of last year, but only ended completely in October with the Gaza ceasefire.

WHAT HAS THEY DONE IN THE LATEST WAR WITH IRAN?

Hezbollah, Iraqi groups and other terrorists joined the war with a flurry of?rockets and drones after the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran. The Houthis however have been relatively quiet.

Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the leader of the group, said on March 5, "Our fingers are ready to fire at any time if circumstances warrant it."

Esmaeil Quds Force Commander of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, Esmaeil Quaani, said on June 1, that the Houthis may join the war.

Before this week, however, the group was only involved in a few drone and missile attacks against Israel that took place late March?and earlyApril.

It is not clear why the Houthis are so quiet.

The Iranians and they may have been trying to use the threat to close another major energy route to scare Israel and the United States into not escalating further.

Houthis might also be less concerned about Iran's security compared to other regional allies.

The group might not want to anger its wealthy, powerful neighbour Saudi Arabia or risk re-igniting conflict in the country.

(source: Reuters)