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How the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea strengthens Iran's grip over global energy supplies

Houthis, who are allied with Iran, in Yemen, will blockade Saudi Arabia's maritime traffic, they announced on Monday. This would further restrict a global market for energy, which is already severely restricted due to Iran's closing of the Strait?of Hormuz.

Why it matters, and what it means to the Iran War and the global energy crises:

How big is the risk to global energy markets?

It's not clear what the Houthis will do to blockade Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea Coast, their northern neighbor. Or if they would return to attacking shipping.

Yemen is located on the strait of?Bab el-Mandeb - the southern entrance to the Red Sea - so closing it would create a 'new front' in the conflict between Iran and the U.S. and the energy crisis.

The Red Sea is now a vital alternative outlet for Gulf Oil and other products, with Hormuz disrupted. If both major Middle East oil export routes were closed simultaneously, a serious disruption would be the result.

The partial blockade of Iran's Strait of Hormuz by Israel and the U.S. after their attack on it on 28 February disrupted the majority of oil and other Gulf exports, causing prices to rise and a global energy crisis.

Saudi Arabia responded to this by redirecting more than 70% its daily crude oil exports to Yanbu, a port on the Red Sea. Ships bound for Europe leave Yanbu via the Suez Canal. Those headed to Asia pass through Bab el-Mandeb.

According to Kpler's and Signal Ocean's data, Yanbu has shipped an average of 4 million barrels per day over the past few weeks. This is up from 973,000 bpd one year ago.

According to Kpler, the total petroleum volume transiting Bab el-Mandeb in June was 7.4 million bpd, which is about 7% global oil production. This represents an increase from 4.2 million bpd a year ago.

This has helped to stabilize the global oil price by stabilizing the energy market. Last week, it was reported that Saudi Arabia is looking at expanding its crude oil pipeline along the Red Sea Coast.

Gulf oil exports flowed freely when the Houthis attacked?Red Sea Shipping in November 2023.

Who are the HOUTHIS and do they close RED SEA ENERGY routes on behalf of Iran?

In the 1990s the Houthis were a military, religious and political movement that fought guerrilla warfare against the Sanaa government.

Since more than a century, they have waged a civil war with the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government and attacked Gulf neighbours using missiles and drones.

The truce of 2022 between Yemen's warring parties largely held up until last week when Yemen's internationally recognised government claimed it had attacked Sanaa Airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing.

The Houthis claimed that Saudi Arabia was to blame and, in response, fired missiles into Abha Airport in the mountainous southwest of the Kingdom.

In an interview with Press TV, a senior Houthi, politburo-member Mohammad al-Farah warned that if things continued to escalate, Bab el-Mandeb could be closed.

Iran supports the Houthis in its regional "Axis of Resistance", including Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shiite militias. However, its ties to the Yemeni movement is less clear than those with these other groups.

Houthis don't recognise Iran's supreme ruler as their ultimate authority religiously in the same manner that Hezbollah or Iraqi groups do. They are motivated primarily by domestic issues, even though they share Iran's ideology.

Hezbollah is said to have helped Iran arm, fund and train the Houthis. The Houthis claim to be independent and do not accept that they are Iranian proxies. It is not clear to what extent the Houthis' stance on Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and their own strategic priorities are influenced by Iran.

What happened when the HOUTHIS attacked RED SEA SHIPS before?

The Houthis started firing on Israel and ships in the Red Sea after the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 and Israel's devastating Gaza campaign. They said they were doing this in support for Palestinians.

The attacks caused a major disruption in global shipping. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, among other large companies, diverted around Africa, a route that was much longer and more expensive.

Suez Canal Authority data show that the Red Sea traffic is still not recovering. The traffic through the Suez Canal in 2025 will be 52% lower than in 2023 and its lowest level in 50 years.

The U.S. led mission to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea included repeated strikes against Houthi targets, and a defensive offensive that destroyed hundreds of drones.

Some Houthi attacks continued until last summer. They only ended completely after the Gaza ceasefire.

The Houthis announced last month that they would ban all ships from the Red Sea linked to Israel after Israel re-launched military attacks on Iran.

Maersk announced this month that the threat never materialized and that Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk are now resuming certain Red Sea routes they abandoned last year during Houthi attacks.

WHAT HAS THEIR ACTION BEEN DURING THE LATEST IRAN WAR?

Hezbollah, the Iraqi groups and even the U.S. military joined the war with rocket and drone attacks after the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran. The Houthis were relatively quiet.

Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the leader of the group, said on March 5, "Our fingers are ready to fire at any time if circumstances warrant it".

Iranian commanders warned repeatedly that the Houthis might join the war. In late March and earlyApril, the Houthis launched some missiles and drones attacks against Israel.

Esmaeil Quds Force Commander Esmaeil Quaani of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force said on June 1, they could choke off Red Sea.

It may have changed now with their announcement on Monday of the blockade against what they called "criminal" Saudi Arabia as retaliation to what they said the kingdom was sieging its ports and airports including last week's strikes. (Compiled and edited by William Maclean, Jason Neely and Angus McDowall)

(source: Reuters)