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Bousso: Shuttles to Hormuz keep oil flowing at high costs

The Middle East oil markets are being reshaped by a new system of shuttling, as producers try to maintain exports despite the escalating conflict in the region. The question is now whether this expensive, complex process is just a temporary measure or is the new norm for the global energy markets.

Rows of tankers are anchored several miles off the coast of Oman, south of the Strait of Hormuz. They sit next to each other and are connected by ropes or hoses. This allows them to transfer crude oil from one vessel?to another, forming a floating link between the Middle East’s oilfields?and?the global markets.

Transfers from ship to ship (STS), which are now in their seventh month, have been a lifeline for Gulf producers who must adapt?to?the disruptions brought on by the Iran War. After loading, the tanker disengages from its ship and travels to its destination. This is usually a refinery located in Asia. The "mother ship" returns via Hormuz back to the Gulf to reload, and repeat the entire process.

The system reduces the distance that any ship must travel and thus the risk of transiting through the strait. This is even though an increasing number tankers are passing through a narrow, protected corridor along Oman’s coast with their navigation systems turned off.

Kpler data shows that exports through Hormuz reached 6.5 million barrels a day (bpd), the highest level since the short spike following the ceasefire in June.

This operation is proof of the remarkable adaptability of the energy industry to supply shocks. It is also a sign that it's becoming more and more expensive to transport oil from the world's largest exporting region.

HORMUZ STANDOFF

The Strait of Hormuz was responsible for a fifth of the global oil demand before the US-Israel conflict erupted with Iran in February. Iran's blockade forced producers to cut production and divert traffic where they could.

Shipowners were reluctant to send their vessels into an active conflict zone. Those who did take the risk, however, demanded premiums that were unprecedented.

Energy industry is a dynamic field that?rarely remains still.

ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, developed STS as a workaround to the shortage of tankers. In April, instead of using the vessels for round-trip trips of several weeks, to buyers in Asia it began to use them as shuttle tankers transporting crude oil from Gulf terminals into the safer waters of?the Gulf of Oman. The cargoes can then be transferred onto larger vessels for the next journey.

This strategy allowed for the continuation of some essential exports by maximising the use and cost-effectiveness of a small and expensive fleet.

The UAE is expected to export 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, which is higher than the average for 2025 of 3.4 millions bpd.

ARAMCO'S IN TOO

What started as an emergency response is now a thriving new industry.

Saudi Aramco relies more and more on STS operations, as disruptions in the Red Sea export routes have reduced the effectiveness of its alternative outlet.

Yemen's Houthi forces, backed by Iran, have tightened their grip in recent weeks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near the southern entrance of the Red Sea. On September 10, Iran-backed militants attacked the East-West oil pipeline in Iraq, cutting off approximately 4% of global supplies of oil that were flowing into international markets through the Red Sea port Yanbu.

This confluence pushed Brent crude above $108 per barrel last week, before the Saudis informed buyers that they would continue to ship via STS transfers through the Omani route.

STS has been adopted by other regional producers.

Kpler estimates that around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude will be transferred via STS in the Gulf of Oman alone in September, compared to 1.4 million in August. This is roughly 40% of what currently passes through Hormuz. STS was used very rarely before the war.

PARALYSIS IS NOT ADAPTATION

This floating?logistics system has prevented a much more severe supply-side shock. However, it comes with a high price.

According to LSEG, benchmark freight rates for a VLCC transporting Gulf crude oil to China have risen in recent months, to $30 per barrel. This is the highest rate ever recorded. With crude oil prices at around $105, the freight cost now accounts for over a quarter, compared to just 2% or 3% prior to the war.

Each additional transfer adds to the cost of global oil markets.

To keep their exports competitive, producers have had to offer steeper discounts on their crude. They also paid a part of the higher transportation costs.

Due to the expansion of STS in the Gulf, the number of available tankers has also been limited, which has led to a dramatic increase in global freight rates.

Keshav Lakhya, CEO at HiLo Analytics, said: "We're witnessing the largest wealth transfer from oil producers to owners of tankers."

Fundamentally, today's global energy market adapts to the increased geopolitical risks rather than being paralysed. The Middle East's oil trade has become increasingly inefficient. It is dependent on a patchwork system of military escorts. temporary transfer hubs. and alternative routes, which were never designed to handle this volume.

The more fragile and expensive the global energy system is, the longer the conflict continues and the more routes are threatened.

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(source: Reuters)