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Comex silver heading back to London after record spot prices

Silver, which flooded the United States in the early part of this year because of fears about tariffs on imports, is likely to return to London's physical market where shortages of metal have driven the spot price over U.S. Futures.

Silver was shipped to the United States by traders who wanted to avoid possible tariffs. This is because it was included on a list of critical minerals for the United States in September. The move is part of an effort to secure domestic supply chain for key metals.

Silver spot was around $50.10 an ounce Friday after reaching a record of $51.22 per ounce Thursday. Comex silver futures were at last $48.1.

Analysts said that the price difference is large enough for traders to profitably bring silver to London.

At a Macquarie briefing, Ryan Mangan, Macquarie's head of global bulks and metals trading said that there was a shortage of silver in London. However, 500 million ounces of silver were sitting on the Comex exchange doing nothing.

Comex silver inventories The 526.1 million troy-ounces is close to the record of 531.9 millions ounces set on October 3.

Adrian Ash, the head of research for online marketplace BullionVault, said that "so much silver has gone to the U.S. there is now nearly four years worth of domestic supply stockpiled." "In London, the lease rates are just over 11%. This is incredible."

Silver lease rates are the costs of borrowing silver, and they are an indicator for demand.

A precious metals trader said that they are high due to low liquidity in London, as a result of a recent surge in demand for silver-backed exchange traded funds. This was on top of the previous flows into the U.S.

In India, the effect of the London market's tightness can be seen. Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company has temporarily stopped new lump-sum investments into its silver ETF to protect investors.

Next week, the metals market will hear from the U.S. investigation into possible tariffs on imports of critical minerals ordered by U.S. president Donald Trump in April. The government shutdown may delay any decisions.

Tai Wong, a metals trader who is independent, said: "I don’t think the market would send back too much unless tariff implications were very clear." Ashitha Shivaprasad reported from London, Polina Devtt contributed additional reporting and Pratima Desai edited the article.

(source: Reuters)