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Iran War Anxiety Sends Global Container Shipping Rates Soaring

Costs of shipping goods from Asia to America have doubled since the start of the Iran War, due to a spike in fuel prices and a surge in demand by importers worried that costs will continue to rise as the conflict continues.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at freight pricing platform Xeneta, said: "If you're looking for a way to gauge how serious you should take the energy crisis threat, then look at container shipping instead of?oil prices?because that risk is more clearly priced into the spiraling rates."

This dynamic could feed into the already high inflation rate in the United States and represents a major challenge to the U.S. Administration of President Donald Trump since it began its war against Iran.

U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright stated on Friday that in order to lower fuel prices, a solution with Iran is needed to increase oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the most recent weekly Drewry World Container Index (WCI), the off-contract spot price to send a container of 40 feet from Shanghai to Los Angeles on Thursday was $4,565, while the rate for Shanghai to New York was $5,505.

Xeneta's and Drewry's Asia-to-U.S. Spot Rates are both up by almost 100% since the Iran Conflict began at the end February. However, they remain well below the $16,000 high of the COVID Pandemic that prompted a spree-buying frenzy by consumers.

BUNKER SPIKE FUEL

The U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, which have been raging for over 100 days without an end in sight - choking off the flow of oil via the Strait of Hormuz – the normal conduit for nearly?20% of world supply - are causing tensions to escalate. As a result, global oil reserves and emergency supplies are rapidly diminishing. Fuel analysts and maritime specialists warn that it may take a year to restore bunker fuel supply to normal, even if Trump can quickly seal an Iran?deal.

Although there is no shortage of "bunker fuel" (a tar-like fuel found at the bottom of the barrel) used by marine vessels currently, the supply has been reduced and the fuel is being diverted to areas that are less affected by Iran's war.

These disruptions, combined with some 'frontloading' by shippers, contributed to the price of this very-low sulfur?fuel oil (VLSFO), which rose to $845 on Tuesday across 20 major fueling centers since the start the Iran War, according to global marine fuel publisher Ship & Bunker.

Prices were wildly different. Prices varied wildly. They were $1,211 at Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, where ships transporting oil and fuel to the Gulf refuel. In Singapore, they were $770.50; in Rotterdam, Europe's main hub, $676; and in Los Angeles, the home of the busiest U.S. port, $918.

Analysts said that bunker fuel can make up as much as 60 percent of the cost of a container vessel's voyage. Therefore, even small changes in price can cause freight rates to rise above what demand would warrant, they added.

Gisele Wieddershoven of Blue Water Strategy, an energy and maritime advisory firm, said that if Hormuz is closed or only partially accessible in the second half 2026, there will be shortages, but not everywhere. Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis estimates that the Middle East conflict added $5.5 billion to bunker fuel costs since late February. Container carrier Hapag-Lloyd spends up to $50 million per week more just in order keep its ships moving.

Some carriers, including?MSC and Maersk, have passed on some of these costs to their customers by adding emergency fuel surcharges to spot shipments. Many vessel operators are incorporating these costs into their annual contracts with customers on July 1.

Steve Hughes, CEO at HCS International - a company that specializes in automotive shipping and sourcing - said, "Importers once again are?racing against the clock" to prevent higher costs.

FACTORIES SQUEEZED

Zac Rogers is the lead author of Logistics Managers' Index. This index provides an early indication of U.S. economic activity.

He said that "there will be much less fuel used to move ships, and also less fuel needed to run factories that produce the components for filling up these ships."

Collin Shaw of MEMA Original Equipment Suppliers, the president, stated that some vehicle part suppliers are frontloading raw material used to manufacture plastics and resins.

In ?South and Southeast Asia, it is becoming more costly to replace the ?Middle East crude oil and liquefied-natural-gas-derived products in everything from plastic packaging to synthetic fabric. Henning Gloystein is the managing director for energy, climate, and resources at Eurasia. He said that some?factory operators may be forced to decide between closing down or losing money.

He said that the "feeder ship" services, which shuttle goods from these factories to major port for global distribution, are also at risk of being reduced to conserve fuel for more lucrative shipping routes.

Gloystein stated that the fuel shortage is more a result of high prices than a lack of supply. The effect is the exact same. (Reporting and editing by Rich Valdmanis, Aurora Ellis and Rich Valdmanis; Additional reporting and editing by Kale Hall and Mike Colias)

(source: Reuters)