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China's demand for refined Copper depletes stock, risks short squeeze

Six traders and analysts have said that China's copper users are turning more to refined copper due to the shortage of scrap, and they are burning through their stocks quickly, raising concern about a market shortfall as prices increase.

Short positions are bets made on lower prices, or hedges taken by producers. Short squeezes occur when the parties who hold such positions are forced either to sell them at a loss, or to deliver actual copper in order to close out their position.

Scrap metal is often used by some copper manufacturers to make rods and wire pipes. A tight scrap market is forcing some manufacturers to choose more expensive refined copper due to a shrinking U.S. exports as a result of an escalating U.S. trade war.

According to Mysteel analyst, the shift is driving a rapid drop in inventories of refined copper at the Shanghai Futures Exchange. LSEG data revealed that SHFE inventories fell by 36% between 7 March and 18 April, to 171,611 metric tonnes. This was the largest decline since March 20,23.

SHFE copper stock rose by 25% over the same time period last year.

Three traders, who asked to remain anonymous, said that the pace of inventory reduction is creating concern about a possible short squeeze.

"Drawdown is high, and we're worried about a squeeze," said a trader.

The Trump administration's threat to impose tariffs on copper imports has led to a rise in the price of copper on COMEX. Copper is increasingly being diverted towards the United States.

The premium on the SHFE for the front month May copper contract compared to the October contract is 1.2%, as opposed to 0.75% late in March.

Yan Gu, the Head of CITIC Metal's Electrolytic Copper Department, said at a conference held in Nanchang, East China, on Wednesday that stock drawdowns would likely cause the premium to increase.

Customs data revealed that U.S. scrap imported, which was the largest source of scrap last year, fell 16% on an annual basis to 93 215 tons during the first quarter.

The shortage of copper concentrate is forcing smelters to seek alternative feedstocks. $1 = 7.2930 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Pratima Dasai and Rachna uppal; Reporting by Violet Li and Lewis Jackson, Nanchang)

(source: Reuters)