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Asian spot LNG prices soften on weak demand

Average LNG price for delivery to North-east Asia in December Industry sources estimate that the price of British thermal units (mmBtu) has dropped to $13,40 from $13,80 per mmBtu in the previous week.

Samuel Good, director of LNG pricing for commodity pricing agency Argus, said that the spot demand in North-East Asia has been slow.

Good said that temperatures in both Seoul as well as Shanghai are expected to remain above average through the end of December, which could impact gas demand.

Alex Froley is a senior LNG analyst with data intelligence firm ICIS. He said that Chinese LNG imports in October were at their highest level ever. This could have been more of a stocking-up for winter rather than an indication of a long-term bullish pattern.

The LNG market has largely shrugged Trump's return as president, but is still closely watching his stance. This includes Joe Biden's decision to halt approvals for new LNG projects and also on Middle East, China, and Russia.

It will be a long time before we see the full impact of Trump's election victory in the U.S. Froley stated that the general environment for gas and LNG will be better than under a Democrat President.

He added that "it's difficult to judge the impact of new tariffs on global trade and major changes in foreign policy at this time, but we can expect volatility to continue."

Gas inventories in Europe have begun to decrease due to the colder weather, and a few days with no wind or solar production. This has caused some price pressure at the Dutch TTF Hub, according to Hans Van Cleef. He is chief energy economist for PZ – Energy Research & Strategy.

Backwardation is the phenomenon whereby Summer 2025 TTF contracts are more expensive than Winter 2025.

"Europe is likely to end this winter with fewer stocks than the previous winter. This means its LNG demand will increase next year, and the region will need to outbid the price-sensitive Asian buyers, which already supports summer prices," said Florence Schmit. Energy strategist at Rabobank London

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe (NWM) LNG Marker price benchmark on Nov. 7 at $12.82/mmBtu for cargoes to be delivered in December ex-ship. This represents a $0.22/mmBtu reduction from the December gas prices at the Dutch TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities set the price at $12.79/mmBtu while Argus put it at $12.20/mmBtu.

According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan, the U.S. arbitrage - diverting a cargo from one market into another - to North-East Asia in December currently costs $-0.23/mmBtu. This means that cargoes in the U.S. prompt month are encouraged to go to north-west Europe, for a 7th consecutive week.

He added that the Atlantic LNG rates rose for the first week in seven to $20,500/day. Meanwhile, Pacific LNG rates fell for a thirteenth consecutive week to $38,250/day.

(source: Reuters)