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Asian spot prices rise on Europe's gas outlook uncertainty

The Asian spot price of liquefied gas (LNG), which is a form of natural gas, rose to its highest level in a month this week as uncertainty over Europe's gas future was caused by the expiry date for a transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

Average LNG price for February deliveries to Northeast Asia Industry sources estimate that the cost per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is $14.60.

Ukraine allowed Russia to continue pumping gas through its territory, despite almost three years of conflict. However, Kyiv refused a five-year contract that expired on New Year's Day.

The European gas balance is still uncertain, despite the fact that this risk was anticipated. The relatively high withdrawals of European gas inventories that are currently 16% less than last year due to higher gas demand, is a key concern, said Siamak Adibi analyst at consultancy FGE.

Adibi added that while the loss of Russian gas won't directly affect Northwest Europe's gas supplies, increased demand from eastern European markets such as Slovakia could bring additional volumes from Western supply pools.

The suspension of Russian gas via Ukraine could lead to a loss on the European market. This would require higher LNG imports in order to balance the market by 2025.

Martin Senior, the head of LNG prices at the commodity pricing agency Argus, stated that gains in Northwest European delivered gas prices outpaced Asia’s price increases. This was due to the termination of the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement, the downward revisions of minimum temperature forecasts, and the unplanned outage of Norway's Hammerfest terminal.

He said that the inter-basin arbitration has been closed since a few weeks. This means that most U.S. Gulf cargoes are already heading to Europe and not Northeast Asia.

"European Prices Closing Above Asian Prices has also caused most west African cargoes head to Europe rather than Asia -- where they were mostly delivered in 2024."

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily Northwest Europe Gas Marker (NWM), a price benchmark, for cargoes to be delivered in February ex-ship on January 2, at $14.785/mmBtu. This represents a $0.225/mmBtu reduction from the gas price for February at the Dutch TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities set the price for the product at $14.904/mmBtu. Argus put the price at 13.995/mmBtu.

Due to the TTF rally in February, the U.S. Arbitrage to Northeast Asia through the Cape of Good Hope is closed, signaling that U.S. cargoes will be delivered to Northwest Europe, according to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan. He also added that the U.S. Arbitrage to Northeast Asia through the Panama Canal has been closed.

According to Afghan, the rates for LNG freight in the Atlantic region rose to $24,750/day last Friday. The rates in Pacific increased to $21,750/day.

(source: Reuters)