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Asia LNG spot prices fall to a three-week low due to tepid demand

The Asian spot price of liquefied gas (LNG), which is a form of natural gas, fell to its lowest level in three weeks on Friday due to the lacklustre demand for gas and the decline in European wholesale prices.

Average LNG price for April deliveries to North-east Asia Industry sources estimate that the price of a million British thermal unit (mmBtu) was $14.00, down from $16.10 per MMBtu last week and at its lowest level since late January.

Charles Costerousse is a senior LNG analyst with data analytics firm Kpler. He said, "We are bearish on Asian LNG prices due to the expectation of mild temperatures in north-east Asia during March and a recovery in LNG supply."

Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG pricing, stated that Japanese stock levels have been depleted due to a recent cold snap, but spot demand has been low.

He added that prices are still too high for second-tier Chinese buyers as well as Indian firms. This is limiting the demand on the spot market in Asia.

Gas prices in Europe fell this week to near four-weeks lows, but they have since stabilized as the U.S. talks with Ukraine to end the conflict and EU member states are discussing the relaxation of storage targets.

Alex Froley is a senior LNG analyst with ICIS. He said that market volatility could still lead to large price swings, depending on the outcome the Ukraine peace negotiations and EU storage goals.

The European Commission, according to a draft EU document, will be working on a more flexible target for EU countries in order to fill their gas storages ahead of the winter after being concerned that strict deadlines might drive up prices.

"Fundamentally the European storage is still lower than in the past two mild winters, but it will be sufficient for the rest of the winter. It will take a large amount of gas to fill up before the next winter. Froley said that this will help keep the prices stable throughout summer.

According to Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank, Europe may need to import 70 billion cubic meters (bcms) of LNG in the summer to fill the storage sites for next winter.

Schmit said that if storage targets were relaxed this year, the strength of summer prices relative to winter prices would diminish.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe (NWM) LNG Marker price benchmark on a basis of ex-ship (DES), for cargoes to be delivered in April, at $13.927/mmBtu. This represents a $0.67/mmBtu reduction from the April gas prices at the Dutch TTF Hub. This marks an 8% decline weekly.

Spark Commodities set the price for delivery in March at $13,96/mmBtu.

Qasim Afghanistan, Spark Commodities analyst, says that the U.S. arbitrage for north-east Asia through the Cape of Good Hope has decreased for the fourth consecutive week. However it still indicates the U.S. cargoes have an incentive to be delivered to Europe and not Asia.

Afghan said that global LNG freight rates have recovered from previous record lows. On Friday, Atlantic rates were $6,250/day and Pacific rates were at a new record low of $10,000/day.

(source: Reuters)