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Venture Global's profits will increase as Calcasieu provides long-term clients with a new LNG plant

Venture Global Inc. is set to sell liquefied gas cargoes at its Louisiana export terminals to long-term clients rather than the highest bidder. It plans to use the controversial, but lucrative practice in a larger terminal it is building.

Venture Global is finally completing the commissioning of its Calcasieu Pass facility, in Louisiana. This binds Venture Global to all contractual obligations that it signed when developing the facility.

Many LNG plants take months to commission a plant or ensure that its systems work as intended. Calcasieu Pass took three years to commission, or ensure that the plant's systems are working as designed.

Shell, BP Orlen Edison and Repsol filed arbitration claims alleging Venture Global intentionally failed to meet their supply contracts by dragging its heels to commission the facility so that it could profit off higher spot prices. Venture Global claimed that a malfunctioning power system caused the delay in normal operations.

Venture Global's larger and newer Plaquemines LNG facility is increasing production to meet the demand of the lucrative spot market. The plant began producing at the end of December. Venture Global has said it will commission its plant in two-year stages, which analysts believe will improve the company's profit outlook.

Adam Baker, a Morningstar energy analyst, stated that "we still expect the majority of sales to be made on the spot market by 2025".

According to a filing made by the SEC last Thursday, Plaquemines now produces at 140% its design capacity. In three months it has sold 29 cargos for an average fee of $7.26 million British thermal unit (mmBtu) per liquefaction.

Jason Feer is the Poten and Partners business intelligence chief. He said: "One can reasonably expect the company's total revenue to increase from LNG sales at the spot market in Plaquemines and some revenue generated from Calcasieu Pass".

UBS, in a Friday note to clients, said that Venture Global's LNG revenues should double from $4.972 to $9.98 Billion in 2025. They will continue to grow through 2029, thanks to higher volumes and high prices.

UBS informed investors that the company expected to sell between $10 and 12 billion worth of cargoes at the spot market from Plaquemines during the period of commissioning. The margin is $5 to $6 per mmBtu.

Exxon Mobil is one of the contracted customers who receive LNG from Plaquemines. However, they did not respond when asked for comment.

Shell declined to comment on its 2 MTPA Plaquemines facility. Shell, according to a person familiar with its position, is bracing itself for another long period of commissioning and possible delays when receiving LNG.

Venture Global has not yet commented.

Venture Global is second in the United States behind Cheniere. Both companies saw a boom in exports as the U.S. became a major global supplier of supercooled gas after Russia invaded Ukraine.

CALCASIEU LEGAL FEIGHT

SEC filings reveal that Venture Global has earned over $19 billion in LNG sales at the spot market during the last three years. This was almost exclusively from its Calcasieu Pass terminal. The margins of that terminal will begin to shrink on April 15 when it begins supplying customers with long-term contracts.

Two people who are familiar with the contracts said that the liquefaction fee at Calcasieu Pass is among the lowest in the Gulf Coast, at $1.75 per million British Thermal Unit (mmBtu).

Venture Global warned investors during its initial public offering of the decline in revenue when Calcasieu pass is commercialized.

Customers who have signed contracts with Venture Global have been waiting for years to receive the cheaper cargoes. Shell, Orlen, and Repsol all say they will continue to fight Venture Global after they receive cargoes.

Shell's CEO Wael sawan said last month, at the Capital Market's Day of the company in New York, "We hope that we will be able have some sort of readout in the coming months and hopefully this year."

Magdalena Bartos, Orlen's chief financial officer and Repsol CEO, confirmed their respective companies' arbitration processes in separate earnings calls held last month.

Orlen, who has contracted with Calcasieu Pass for 2 MTPA, expects to receive its first shipment from the facility by April 23.

Josu Imaz, CEO of Repsol, said that the company plans to resell the LNG at low prices from Calcasieu in Europe and Asia if it is priced right.

Imaz stated that Calcasieu is "a very competitive LNG plant, and probably the best in the Gulf" from a cost perspective.

Shell intends to also sell its LNG contracts from Calcasieu. A Shell source confirmed this. Reporting by Curtis Williams, Marwa Rashed in London, and Marek Stzelecki in Warsaw. Editing by David Gregorio.

(source: Reuters)