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INDIA RUPEE - Rupee finishes month and quarter slightly lower than most Asian counterparts
The Indian rupee fell on Monday, ending the month and the quarter slightly lower. It trailed most Asian counterparts amid muted portfolio flows and was weighed down due to the country's deficit in external investments. The dollar closed the day at 85.7550 against the currency, down by 0.3%. In the face of a general dollar decline, most Asian currencies have suffered modest losses. The Indian rupee has not changed much in the past year, but Asian currencies such as the Taiwan Dollar and Korean won, which are closely monitored by the rupee, have increased about 13% and 8 % respectively. Meanwhile, the offshore Chinese Yuan, another closely-tracked currency, is up more than 2%. Analysts cite India's deficit in external investment as one of the main reasons for the rupee's poor performance. Investors are hedging against the persistent weakness of the dollar and boosting currencies in countries like Korea and Taiwan that have large investment surpluses. The dollar index has fallen over 10% in the first half of the year, weighed down by concerns over U.S. fiscal and trade policies, fears over the future independence and expectations for a reduction of benchmark interest rates. The rupee has also suffered from a sluggish portfolio flow, with foreign investors pulling a net of about $0.5 billion out of local bonds and stocks over the quarter April-June. Analysts expect the rupee to be supported by a weaker dollar despite the relative underperformance. DBS stated in a report that "we see scope for USD/INR consolidating in an 84 to 86 range with a downward bias." It added that it might lower its USD/INR forecast if US Federal Reserve pivots toward a rate reduction later this year, setting the stage for further USD weakness. On that day, traders reported that dollar bids by foreign banks and state-run bank weighed down on the rupee despite the fact most Asian counterparts posted gains.
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Second ally of Biya's Biya in the presidential race
Bello Bouba Maigari, the Tourism Minister of Cameroon, has accepted nomination by his party to run for president in an upcoming election expected to take place in October. The long-serving president Paul Biya is yet to declare whether he intends to run again. Why it's important Maigari is a former Prime Minister who has served President Biya as a close ally for over 30 years. He accepted the nomination of the National Union for Democracy and Progress on Saturday. However, he did remain in his cabinet position. In recent days, he is the second minister of government from the north to announce his presidential candidacy. This could signal a possible rupture in the strategic alliance that Biya’s central government has with influential northern elites. CONTEXT Biya, 92, has been in power since 1982. He hasn't confirmed if he intends to run for reelection. Maigari announced her candidacy last week, following the resignation of Issa Bakary from the government. He was a former spokesperson for the government and cited widespread calls for change. Three provinces in northern Cameroon, Adamawa, North, and Far North, have over 2,000,000 voters. They hold significant electoral power. By the Numbers According to preliminary data, more than 8 million Cameroonians are registered to vote in the nation of 30 million people that produces cocoa and oil. Reporting by Amindeh Blaise Atabong, Editing by Ayen deng Bior and Joe Bavier
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Early heatwave causes wildfires to rage in Turkey and France
On Monday, a heatwave in the region prompted firefighters to battle wildfires across Turkey and France. The wildfires in Turkey have raged for the second day, and were fanned on by strong winds. Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli confirmed this, and said that four villages, as well as two neighbourhoods, had to be evacuated. As smoke billowed from hills marked by charred trees, footage of teams using tractors and water trailers as well as helicopters to carry water was shown. Scientists say that climate change has caused the summers to become hotter and dryer, causing wildfires in Turkey's coastal areas. Authorities and local media reported that in France, where temperatures will peak on Tuesday and on Wednesday, wildfires broke on Sunday, when temperatures reached 40 degrees Celsius. Authorities said Monday that the fires had been brought under control, but they were not yet out. Meteo France, the weather service in France, has issued an orange heatwave warning for 84 departments of France. This alert will last until mid-week. The Education Ministry announced that 200 schools would be closed at least in part over the next few days due to the heat. HEATWAVE RHINE SHIPPING IMPACTS Commodity traders claim that the heatwave has caused a drop in water levels along Germany's Rhine River. This has affected shipping and increased freight costs for cargo owners. The Rhine is a major shipping route for grains, minerals and petroleum products. Cologne could see temperatures of up to 40 C. Temperatures were predicted to reach 42 C in Seville, south Spain, where world leaders were gathered for a United Nations Conference. The heat was a problem for tourists. Mehrzad Joussefi from the Netherlands said that it was "really hot right now". The national weather service AEMET has said that Spain is on track to have its hottest ever June. AEMET has forecast that the heatwave will peak on Monday. Ruben delCampo, spokesperson for the weather service, said that intense heat would continue to be felt in Spain over the next few days. The Health Ministry of Italy issued red alerts on heatwaves in 21 cities including Rome and Milan. IlMeteo.it, a weather forecast website, said that temperatures could reach 41 C on Monday in Florence and 38 C in Bologna. According to its president, the Lombardy Region, which is part of northern Italy's industrial heartland and includes the region of Lombardy, plans to ban outdoor work during the hottest hours of the day. This follows a union request. Heat can have a variety of health effects, but experts are particularly concerned for the elderly, babies, outdoor workers, and those who are struggling financially. Swiss Re stated earlier this month that extreme heat worldwide kills 480,000 people each year, exceeding the combined toll of floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes. It also poses a growing risk to infrastructure, economy, and healthcare systems. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service C3S said this month that global surface temperatures were 1.4 C above the pre-industrial period between 1850-1900, when humans started burning fossil fuels at an industrial scale. Scientists believe that the burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause of climate changes. The planet experienced its hottest year ever in 2018. (Additional reporting from Emma Pinedo and Alvise Arinelli in Madrid; Writing by Ingrid Melander, Editing by Janet Lawrence.
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Moody's: India's new rules on infrastructure lending will support loan growth
Moody's Ratings stated on Monday that India's final rules for easing provisions in loans to infrastructure projects under construction are likely to boost credit growth. Moody's reported that the Reserve Bank of India cut its provisioning requirement from 5% to 1% earlier this month. This move is expected to increase banks' willingness and ability to fund infrastructure development. Moody's stated that they expect that the finalization of guidelines will reduce uncertainty and support medium-term economic growth. Moody's reported that infrastructure credit declined by 0.8% from April 2024 to April 2025, after the Reserve Bank of India tightened lending standards in May. Moody's added that non-bank financiers of infrastructure also lagged behind, with an annualised growth rate of 6.9% between March 2024 and September 2024 compared to 13.2% for NBFCs as a whole. In India, prolonged project delays and overly-optimistic revenue forecasts led to major loan defaults. Lenders are now cautious about infrastructure lending. The new rules will be in effect starting Oct. 1. Ratings agency says state-owned banks, non-bank lenders and those most exposed to infrastructure will see a slight negative impact on their profitability if loans aren't disbursed before October 1. However, this is likely to be a one-off event. Moody's stated that additional steps, such as extended deadlines and commercial operations for project completion will support asset quality. (Reporting by Nandan Mandayam in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
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Dubai at 17-year High, Dubai and other Gulf markets mix in early trading
The major Gulf stock markets traded mixed on Monday morning, with the Saudi index falling on profit-taking while the Dubai exchange reached its highest level for seventeen years. Dubai's main stock index rose 0.7% to its highest level since May 2008. Blue-chip developer Emaar Properties also gained 0.8%. National Central Cooling Co. (Tabreed), meanwhile, grew by 2.1%. Tabreed, a private equity firm, and CVC DIF's infrastructure strategy division, CVC DIF plan to buy Multiply Group, based in Abu Dhabi,'s district cooling company. CVC DIF has entered into a partnership with Tabreed to purchase PAL Cooling Holding for a value of approximately 3.8 billion dirhams (1.03 billion dollars). Multiply Group shares rose more than 6%, to 2,52 dirhams. This is the highest since over a year. In Abu Dhabi the index rose 0.6%. Market attention was also focused on the resumption of trade negotiations between the United States, and Canada. Canada has repealed its digital service tax to help advance trade negotiations with America, Canada's Finance Ministry said in a Sunday statement. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index fell 0.1% on Monday, ending a five-day streak of gains. The drop was caused by the 1.4% decline in Al Rajhi Bank, and a 0.2% fall in Saudi Aramco, an oil giant. The oil prices, which are a major catalyst for Gulf financial markets, have continued to fall on fears about increased production from OPEC+. Last week's 12% drop was a result of this. Qatar Navigation lost 1.3%, while the Qatari index dropped 0.2%.
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Planning ministry: Egypt's economy will grow by 4.77% during Q3 2024/25
The planning ministry reported on Monday that Egypt's economy increased by 4.77% during the third quarter 2024/25 fiscal, compared to 2.2% a year ago, thanks to a recovery in manufacturing. The fiscal year runs between July and June. The manufacturing sector grew 16.3% during the third quarter. This is a recovery from the 3.9% drop in the same quarter in the previous fiscal. The oil and gas extraction industry continued to contract, with a contraction of 10.38%. The Planning Ministry also released the fourth-quarter revenue numbers for the Suez Canal. These figures show a decrease to $900 millions from $1.1 billion one year ago. The planning ministry reported that activity for the third quarter fell by 23.1%, compared to a decline of 51.6% in the previous year. It did not give exact figures.
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Poland's Orlen won't buy Russian oil anymore, CEO of the company says
Ireneusz Fafara, the chief executive of Orlen's Czech refinery, said that after June 30th, it will no longer purchase Russian oil. Orlen said that the contract with Rosneft to supply Russian oil to the Litvinov Refinery in Czech Republic is the last contract linking it to Russian oil. Fafara said at a press conference that "we freed Central Europe today from Russian oil." In April, the Czech Republic announced that it was becoming Fully independent The completion of the capacity upgrades of the TAL pipeline from the west has resulted in the first time ever that Russia will be able to supply its own oil. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Czech Republic has tried to reduce its dependence on the Druzhba Pipeline, which has delivered supplies from Russia for years and accounted for half of the country's oil imports each year. At the end of last year Czech pipeline operator MERO completed an upgrade along the Transalpine (TAL) pipeline, which carries oil from tankers in the Italian port of Trieste to Germany, where it feeds into the Ingolstadt-Kralupy-Litvinov (IKL) pipeline to the Czech Republic. Orlen stated that the Czech refineries currently receive crude oil from a variety of sources, including the North Sea, Mediterranean, South and North America and Africa. (Reporting by Marek Strzelecki, Editing by Louise Heavens)
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Middle East flights suspended by airlines
After the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, which ended on Tuesday with a ceasefire brokered by the United States, many airline services are still disrupted throughout the Middle East. Safety concerns and airspace closures continue to impact airline traffic in this region. Here are a few airlines that have canceled flights from and to the region. AEGEAN AIRLINES The Greek airline has cancelled flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut as well as to Amman and Erbil until the early flight on September 8th. AIRBALTIC AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, has announced that it will cancel all flights from and to Tel Aviv up until 30 September. AIR CANADA The Canadian carrier suspends its flights between Toronto and Dubai until the 4th of August. The Canadian carrier had already delayed the resumption to service between Canada and Israel until September 8. AIR EUROPA Spanish airline cancels flights from and to Tel Aviv through July 31. AIR FRANCE-KLM Starting July 7, the French flag carrier will resume its flights between Paris-Charles de Gaulle to Tel Aviv. The French flag carrier plans to resume flights between Paris-Charles de Gaulle, and Beirut on June 28. KLM has cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv, until at least the 31st of July. DELTA AIR LINES Travel to, from or through Tel Aviv could be affected between June 12 and July 31. EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES The Israeli airline reported that flights were running as planned on June 29. Only a few flights had been cancelled. Sundor will resume flights on July 1. EMIRATES Emirates has cancelled all flights from/to Tehran up to and including the 5th of July. Baghdad operations will resume on July 1, and Basra operations on July 2. FINNAIR Finnair has cancelled all flights from and to Doha until June 30th, as well as flight AY1982 for July 1. Finnair also added that they would not be flying over the airspaces of Iraq, Iran or Syria. FLYDUBAI The UAE airline announced that it would resume its full network schedule on July 1. British Airways, owned by IAG, has announced that flights to Tel Aviv will be suspended until July 31, and flights to Amman or Bahrain until June 30. Iberia Express - IAG's low cost airline - has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv up until October 25, 2010. ITA AIRWAYS Italian Airlines announced that it will extend the suspension of Tel Aviv flight until July 31. This includes two flights scheduled for August 1. JAPAN AIRLINES The Japanese airline has cancelled all flights to Doha from July 2 until July 2. LUFTHANSA GROUP Lufthansa has suspended flights from and to Tel Aviv, Tehran and Beirut until July 31. Amman and Erbil flights are cancelled through July 11. German Airlines added that they would not use the airspace of these countries until further notice. PEGASUS Turkish Airlines has announced that they have cancelled all flights to Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan until the 7th of July. QATAR AIRWAYS Qatar Airways will resume its flights to Baghdad on 30 June. Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Najaf will be available from July 1. Basra and Basra are scheduled to begin July 3. Qatar Airways will resume all flights to Beirut, Amman and Najaf from July 1. Flights to Iran are temporarily suspended. RYANAIR Ryanair has cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv, and Amman up until October 25. UNITED AIRLINES According to the U.S. airline, travel from and to Tel Aviv could be affected between June 13, and August 1, 2018. There may be problems with flights to and from Dubai between June 18th and July 3th. WIZZ AIR Wizz Air announced that it has suspended all flights to and from Tel Aviv, Amman and Jordan until September 15, 2015. Hungarian airlines will not fly over Israeli, Iraqi and Iranian airspaces until further notice. (Reporting and compilation by bureaus, compiled by Agnieszka Olesnka, Elviira Loma, Tiago Brancao, Alison Williams, Matt Scuffham)
Bousso: Mideast conflict highlights Egypt's weak energy spot
Israel stopped gas exports to Egypt following the start of the war with Iran
The exports resumed on the 23rd of June, but Egypt's gas challenges remain.
Egypt's gas production has declined dramatically in recent years and is unlikely to recover anytime soon
Ron Bousso
LONDON 30 June - Egypt is one of the worst economic losers in the 12-day Middle East war, after Israel cut off vital natural gas supplies to Egypt.
After Israel and Iran agreed on a ceasefire, President Donald Trump of the United States declared it on June 23. However, the incident highlights Egypt's vulnerability as well as the fading hope that the Eastern Mediterranean region could become a major exporter of gas.
In the 2000s, the discovery and development offshore gas reserves near Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus has transformed the energy landscape of the region, making it a major hub for production and attracting international companies.
Egypt was especially benefited by the surge in production. The rapid development of the Zohr gas field in 2017 and the discovery of the largest gas deposit in eastern Mediterranean in 2015 provided Egypt with vital energy for its internal market, as well as income from LNG exports, which will reach 7 million tons by 2022, or nearly 2% global supply according to Kpler's data.
Egypt's production started to decline rapidly in the early 2000s, especially at its flagship Zohr oil field. According to JODI, Egypt's production dropped from 6 billion cubic feet per a day (bcf/d), at the beginning of 2021, to 3.5 bcf/d in April 2025.
Martin Sherriff is an analyst with Welligence Energy Analytics. He predicts that production will average between 4.4 and 4.6 bcf/d in 2014. He added that it is unlikely to grow significantly in the future, given the limited success of the country's offshore gas exploration in recent years.
Egypt's energy problems were compounded due to the rapid population growth from 100 million people in 2015 to over 115 million people by 2023. Egypt's domestic gas production was not enough to meet its population's demands, so in 2020 it began to import gas from Israel. Israel had seen a boom in gas production over the past decade after the discovery of offshore resources. Israel's gas production increased by 70% between 2010 and 2024, reaching 2.5 bcf/d. Around half of this volume was exported to Egypt and Jordan.
Egypt will resume LNG imports for the first since 2018 due to the sharp decline in production. Egypt will import 160 LNG cargos in 2019 and 2020 at prices that are far higher than those it can produce or purchase from Israel where the export pipelines have already reached capacity.
WAR CASUALTY
Egypt's vulnerability to energy was brought into sharp focus by the recent conflict between Israel and Iran.
Israel and Egypt signed a peace accord in 1979, after years of conflict. Their interdependence increased as their gas trade developed.
Following the outbreak of violence on October 7, 2023, these gas flows were mostly uninterrupted. Israel's decision to stop operations at Leviathan and Karish offshore gas fields after launching a wave of airstrikes on Iran led to a suspension of natural gas sales.
According to Jodi, Egypt imported more than 0.9 bcf/d of Israel's total observed consumption in the first four month of 2025.
The drop in Israel's gas deliveries, just as the demand for electricity was approaching its peak during summer, threatened to be a serious blow to Egypt’s economy.
As part of an emergency plan by the Egyptian government to cope with a drop in Israeli gas supply, Egyptian fertilizers producers had to close their operations. Power plants in Egypt increased their use of fuel oil while others switched over to diesel in order to maintain the grid stability in a nation that has suffered from massive blackouts.
According to a calculation done on the back of a piece of paper, for every week that Israel's gas imports were disrupted, Egypt would need to purchase two additional LNG cargoes to compensate or find other fuel sources.
RELIANCE IS RISING
Israel has resumed its gas exports to Egypt, which is a relief for Cairo. This does not solve Egypt's fundamental problems.
Energy majors such as BP, Exxon Mobil Shell and Chevron are still exploring for new gas reserves in Egypt. If found, these resources could offset the natural decline of its existing fields.
The Israeli gas exports could increase to Egypt when the Leviathan field operated by Chevron expands its production from 12 bcm to 14 bcm by 2026. However, delays in expanding the pipeline capacity between Egypt and Israel could hinder that expansion.
For now, however, the outlook for the country's gas production is bleak. The nation also struggles with sluggish economic growth, and significant revenue loss from Suez Canal Transit Fees, due to the attacks of Iran-backed Houthi Rebels in Yemen.
The decline of Egypt's oil and gas industry has wiped out hopes that the Eastern Mediterranean would become a major LNG-exporting hub in coming years.
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(source: Reuters)