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Asian spot LNG prices decline on muted demand, high inventories

The Asian spot LNG prices fell this week as a result of weaker demand, strong inventories and buyers in South Asia finding current prices too expensive.

Average LNG price for September deliveries into North-east Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $12.30, down from $12.90/mmBtu a week ago.

Prices have been on a slow decline this week because of the abundance of supply and increased inventories. Toby Copson is the chairman of Davenport Energy Partners.

He added that "Demand is still relatively weak at a macro level, with hubs in the U.S. and Europe reflecting this."

Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG prices, says that coal has been a major part of meeting the cooling demand due to a heatwave in Japan or South Korea.

He said that some production problems have occurred, including the third LNG train of Australia's Gorgon, at Elba Island in the U.S. and Das Island in United Arab Emirates, which is undergoing maintenance.

Senior continued, "However the outages did not push Asia to compete with Atlantic basin (cargos), and current prices are too high for price-sensitive buyers in South Asia and China to compete on spot supply."

Gas prices in Europe rose during the week due to unplanned maintenance in Norway, but fell on Friday when supply from Norway increased.

The European Union agreed on Friday to an 18th set of sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine. These include measures that aim to deal further blows with the Russian oil industry and energy sector.

This package includes a ban on transactions with Russia, including those relating to the Nord Stream pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea and its financial sector.

The new EU sanctions package does not alter the outlook for the European gas market. "The 2027 Russian phase-out is still in place, which is the reason why TTF market reactions were rather muted", said Florence Schmit. Energy strategist at Rabobank.

She said that the threat by U.S. president Donald Trump to impose 100% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy within 50 days did not shake the market.

Schmit said that "the tariff rate and the 50-day break signalled this could be more noise than real...Russia sanctions are still an upside risk, although it is limited for now."

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in September ex-ship on July 17 at $11.397/mmBtu, a $0.450/mmBtu reduction from the September futures prices at the TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities rated the August price as $11.269/mmBtu.

Arbitrage by the U.S. to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope is still pointing to Europe. Qasim Afghanistan, an analyst at Spark Commodities, says that the arbitrage via Panama also points to Europe and not Asia.

Afghan said that on Friday, the LNG market in Atlantic increased to $33,750/day while Pacific rates were relatively stable at $38,250/day. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney; Marwa Rashad)

(source: Reuters)