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RPT-Asian spot LNG prices decline on muted demand, high inventories

The Asian spot LNG prices fell this week as a result of weaker demand, strong inventories, and buyers in South Asia finding current prices too expensive.

Average LNG price for September deliveries into North-east Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $12.30, down from $12.90/mmBtu a week ago.

Prices have been on a slow decline this week because of the abundance of supply and increased inventories. Toby Copson is the chairman of Davenport Energy Partners.

He added that "Demand is still relatively weak at a macro level, with hubs in the U.S. and Europe reflecting this."

Martin Senior, head LNG pricing at Argus, says that coal has been able to meet the majority of cooling demand due to a heatwave across Japan and South Korea. He said that some production outages occurred, such as at Australia's Gorgon third LNG train, U.S. Elba Island Terminal and United Arab Emirates Das Island, which were undergoing maintenance. Senior said that the outages had not forced Asia to compete with other countries for cargoes from the Atlantic basin. Current prices were also too high for some price-sensitive buyers in South Asia and China.

Gas prices in Europe rose slightly last week due to unplanned maintenance by Norway, but fell on Friday when the supply from Norway increased. The European Union agreed on Friday to an 18th package against Russia for its war in Ukraine. This included measures that would further damage the Russian oil industry.

This package includes a ban on transactions with Russia, including those relating to the Nord Stream pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea and its financial sector.

The new EU sanctions package does not alter the outlook for the European gas market. "The 2027 Russian phase-out is still in place, which is the reason why TTF market reactions were rather muted," Florence Schmit said, energy strategist at Rabobank.

She said that the threat by U.S. president Donald Trump to impose 100% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy within 50 days did not shake the market.

Schmit said that "the tariff rate and the 50-day break signalled this could be more noise than real...Russia sanctions are still an upside risk, although it is limited for now."

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in September ex-ship on July 17 at $11.397/mmBtu, a $0.450/mmBtu reduction from the September futures prices at the TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities rated the August price as $11.269/mmBtu.

Arbitrage by the U.S. to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope is still pointing to Europe. Qasim Afghanistan, an analyst at Spark Commodities, says that the arbitrage via Panama also points to Europe and not Asia.

Afghan said that on Friday, the LNG market in Atlantic increased to $33,750/day while Pacific rates were relatively stable at $38,250/day. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney; Marwa Rashad)

(source: Reuters)