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Europe gas markets escape hectic LNG summer storage race: Bousso

Gas traders in Europe have been racing against time to fill up depleted storage facilities before winter.

As demand on Asian markets is waning, Europe will see a spike in liquefied gas imports. This will give traders and governments more breathing space.

It was once considered a niche issue to ensure that European gas supplies are at maximum levels before the cold weather arrives. But it has now become a political necessity after Russia's invasion of Ukraine 2022 led to a sharp reduction in pipeline gas imports.

The EU implemented rules in that year that have since been relaxed, requiring that storage reach 90% capacity each November. These measures created price distortions and disrupted the supply, leading to a frantic scramble to get supplies.

This year, there is no rush to buy.

Gas Infrastructure Europe's (GIE) data shows that European storage capacity is at only 76%, or approximately 85 billion cubic meters, as of 25 August. This is down from 92% one year ago, and the 10-year-average of 80.5%.

According to Kpler data, the region's LNG imports dropped from an annual peak of 11 million metric tonnes in March to an estimated 7.4 million tones in August due to a weaker regional market and stronger purchases from Asia.

This is similar to the spike in Asian LNG imports in August, when they reached 26 million tons. In February, this had dropped to 21 million tons.

The Asian market is expected to be significantly slower during the remainder of 2025, due to large inventories in China and other import nations. This will free up LNG volumes to Europe.

The increase in LNG imports will help to offset the decrease in regional supplies due to seasonal maintenance being completed on several Norwegian gas fields until late September.

Storage is set to reach 90% easily by the start the heating season, in October. No scrambling needed.

SUPPLY BOOM

The summer LNG storage filling frenzy will not return to Europe for at least five years.

According to LSEG, the global LNG capacity will increase from 550 billion cubic meters last year to 649 bcm by 2026 and 890 bcm by 2030.

According to LSEG, the growth was mainly driven by the United States. Exports to the United States in the first seven month of 2025 were up 22% compared to a year ago, to 83 bcm. This is due to the start-up of several large Gulf Coast LNG liquefaction plants, including Venture Global’s Plaquemines.

According to current projections, while the supply and demand are expected to be roughly equal this year, there will be a glut in 2026 of up to 200 bcm.

A large disparity between supply and demand will lead to a reduction in LNG production. The United States is likely to be the first to cut back, as its producers are more price sensitive than those in other regions.

CONSUMER IMPACT

The weather will have a significant impact on gas prices in Europe during the winters to come. Last winter, for example, was much colder than previous ones, causing a huge draw in inventories that pushed up prices.

For the moment, however, the growing oversupply on the market is good news for the consumers. They will benefit from several years with relatively low LNG prices. This, in turn, may help stimulate industrial activity in Africa.

This market dynamic may allow European leaders to also breathe a sigh if relief. They could achieve their dual goal of reducing their reliance on Russian supplies of gas while also lowering the energy bills of their citizens.

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(source: Reuters)