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Hormuz blockage diverts bauxite and alumina ships bound for the Middle East
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made it impossible for ships to travel to their intended destinations. Since the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran began on 28 February, the Middle East is responsible for about 9% of the global aluminium supply. Its smelters are unable to import the bauxite or alumina that they need to continue producing. MarineTraffic.com data showed that three bauxite carriers – the Richmond, the Glory Energy, and the Penelope Oldendorff – were diverting away from the United Arab Emirates. According to LSEG, their combined cargo size is 371,000 metric tonnes. Bauxite is refined into alumina and then smelted for aluminium, which can be used in transport, construction, and packaging. Emirates Global Aluminium is the main bauxite supplier in the region and has an alumina refinery near the UAE port Khalifa. LSEG data show that the Richmond, which left Freetown (Sierra Leone) on January 24, bound for Khalifa, came to a sudden halt in early March off the coasts of Oman as the war escalated. On Friday, it reversed its course and moved eastward towards India. However, since then, the ship has stopped again with no clear destination. Both the Penelope Oldendorff and the Glory Energy, which left Ghana in early February, were originally heading to the Gulf, after having travelled up the East African coast, but they have now moved eastward, suggesting that their route may be diverted towards Asia. Ben Ayre, Kpler's lead Metals Analyst, said that another vessel, Alisios was taking bauxite to the Gulf from Amrun, Australia, but now he is heading north towards China. The vessel was east of the Philippines when it last carried 79,000 tons. The owner of the vessel is being identified to receive comments. ALUMINA AVAILABLE It also appears that two vessels transporting alumina bound for the?Gulf are changing their course. According to LSEG, the Timorsun (also known as the African Sanderling) and the African Sanderling (also known as the African Sanderling) left Australia for Bahrain in February. The African Sanderling was the last ship to leave Sri Lanka's coast, while the Timorsun was further west. Aluminium Bahrain, the only aluminium smelter in Bahrain and which declared force majeure last week on its contracts, did not respond immediately to a comment request. Reporting by Tom Daly & Lewis Jackson. (Editing by Pratima Deai and Mark Potter.
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White House dismisses NTSB Board member after receiving reports of concern behavior
The White House announced on Monday that it had terminated Todd Inman, a member of the National Transportation Safety Board. This was after reports were received about his inappropriate behavior and failure to attend meetings. White?House spokesman Kush?Desai?said?Inman's removal from the NTSB was legal after receiving "highly concerning reports" of inappropriate alcohol consumption on the job. He also received reports of harassment of staff and misuse of government resources. Inman has categorically denied all allegations contained in the White House Statement. It has become increasingly apparent that this was a political hit-job. Inman stated that, "While not my original intention? I look forward to defending me through all legal means." Inman and Jennifer Homendy, the NTSB chairperson, had clashed at times during Inman's tenure. Monday, the NTSB declined to comment. On Sunday, it was reported that Inman had fired. Inman claimed on Sunday that he was fired by the White House on Friday without being given any reasons. Inman was a Republican who served as chief of staff for Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao in the first term of President Donald Trump. He had been on the NTSB's board since March 2024. He was a board member on the scene at the American Airlines crash with an Army helicopter near Reagan Washington National Airport in January?2025 that killed 67 and the November crash involving a UPS cargo aircraft on takeoff from Louisville,?Kentucky airport that killed 15. In May, the White House dismissed Alvin Brown as vice-chair of the NTSB. Brown, a Democrat and the first African American to be elected as mayor of Jacksonville in Florida, has sued over his?dismissal. Brown's departure was not explained. The NTSB investigates all civil aviation accidents. The board also investigates accidents that occur in other modes of transport, such as highways, marine, pipelines, and railroads, to determine the probable cause, and makes safety recommendations. Last month, the Senate confirmed John DeLeeuw as Brown's replacement on the NTSB. DeLeeuw was a Boeing 787 Captain and former American Airlines managing director for safety and efficiency.
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TSX drops 2% as Middle East turmoil reignites inflation jitters
Canada's major?stock index fell to a three-week-low in a broader-based sell-off on Monday. Risk sentiment was hit globally as escalating tensions erupted in the Middle East, sending crude prices soaring, increasing inflation fears. By 10:57 a.m., the S&P/TSX composite index had fallen 1.25%. ET after falling by more than 2% in the earlier session, and in line with an overall decline of more?than 1 percent across major Wall Street indexes. Iran announced that Mojtaba Khmenei would?succeed the slain father of its supreme leader. This signaled to hardliners that they remain in control and that?the war could last longer than expected. As a result of the escalating tension, crude oil prices soared to $119 per barrel, a level not seen since mid-2022. Major producers reduced their?supplies, and concerns about a prolonged disruption in shipping shook markets. The key question is how long and how much damage the energy price spike will cause before it eases. A prolonged rise in energy prices could spark inflation and raise the risk of stagflation. Canada's benchmark index fell more than 6% from the record highs set just one week ago. Fears that a?prolonged Middle East war and rising crude oil prices would fuel global inflation pushed risk assets. Materials, including base and precious metal?miners and fertilizer?companies, fell 4.1% while energy rose 1.1% in line with the increase in crude oil?prices. Shares of Burger King's parent company Restaurant Brands, which fell 4.2%, were among the sector's worst performers. Lundin Mining, a copper miner, lost 6.1% of its value after J.P. Morgan changed the stock's rating from "neutral" to "underweight". (Reporting and editing by Diti Pjara in Bengaluru. Rashika Singh is based in Bengaluru.
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As the Middle East conflict escalates, airlines cancel more flights
The global air travel industry is still severely affected by the Iran war, which forced the closures of major Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. This left tens and thousands of passengers stranded and thousands of flights disrupted. The following is a list of the most recent flights by airline alphabetically: AEGEAN AIRLINES The largest Greek carrier has cancelled flights from Tel Aviv to Baghdad, Erbil, and Beirut through the early morning arrivals on March 25, and flights from Beirut to Erbil. Flights to Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are cancelled until evening arrivals on March 19. AIR BALTIC AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, said that all flights from and to Tel Aviv were cancelled until March 28. Through March 16, all flights to and out of Dubai were cancelled, including the Dubai-Riga flight scheduled for March 17. AIR CANADA The Canadian airline cancelled all flights from Tel Aviv to Dubai and all flights from Dubai to Tel Aviv between May 2nd and March 28th. AIR EUROPA Spanish Airlines has cancelled all flights from Tel Aviv to March 11, 2019. AIR FRANCE KLM Air France has canceled flights from and to Tel Aviv, Beirut and Riyadh until March 10 and from and to Dubai and Riyadh till March 11, including one flight departing from Dubai. KLM has suspended flights from and to Dubai, Riyadh, Dammam and Riyadh until 10 March. Flights to and from Tel Aviv have been suspended for the rest of winter. CATHAY PACIFIC Hong Kong Airlines has cancelled all flights to and from Dubai, and Riyadh until March 14. The U.S. airline has cancelled flights between New York and Tel Aviv until March 22, as well as Tel Aviv and New York. EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES The El?AL? and Sundor flights from Israel to the United States were cancelled up until 2 am local time on Wednesday, March 10th. EMIRATES The UAE airline announced that it would operate a reduced schedule of flights until further notice. ETIHAD AERWAYS From March 6, the UAE carrier will resume limited commercial flights between Abu 'Dhabi and several key destinations. FINNAIR The Finnish airline has cancelled Doha flights and Dubai flights up until March 29, and will avoid the airspaces of Iraq, Iran Syria and Israel. The airline will send at least one plane to Muscat to take customers back home on March 10 and more flights are planned later this week. British Airways, owned by IAG, has cancelled all flights from Tel Aviv to Doha, Amman, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain through March 7. The schedule for flights to Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha was reduced to Larnaca. The airline will also fly BA customers out of Muscat between March 9-12. Other services were not updated immediately. Iberia Express - IAG's low cost airline - has cancelled all flights between Tel Aviv and Tel Aviv until March 10. ITA AIRWAYS ITA Airways has extended the cancellations of flights to and from Tel Aviv till March 22. Dubai cancellations were extended until March 10. JAPAN AIRLINES Japan Airlines has suspended all flights between Tokyo and Doha scheduled to run from 28 February until 21 March, as well as Doha-Tokyo flights up until 22 March. Polish Airlines has cancelled all flights between Tel Aviv, Dubai and Poland until March 28. LUFTHANSA GROUP The German airline group that includes Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines as well as Swiss, Brussels Airlines and Swiss Airlines suspended flights from Tel Aviv to Beirut until March 28 and Amman to Erbil by March 15. Flights from Tehran to Dubai, Abu Dhabi and?Dammam were suspended until April 30. MALAYSIA AIRLINES Malaysia Airlines suspended all flights from and to Doha until the 13th of March. The airline resumed its normal flights to and from Jeddah, Madinah and other destinations on March 8. NORWEGIAN AIR The Norwegian airline will begin flying to Tel Aviv from June 15 instead of April 1, and to Beirut on April 4, as previously planned. PEGASUS The Turkish Transport Minister announced that Pegasus Airlines had removed Iran flights up until March 20. Turkish Airlines also cancelled Amman?and Beirut flights through March 12, and returned through March 13. The Turkish airline has also cancelled flights from Kuwait, Bahrain Doha Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Riyadh Dammam and Dammam until March 9, and returns through March 10. QATAR AIRWAYS The airline operates a limited schedule of flights to and from Doha. It plans to start operating some flights on March 9 following a temporary authorization from the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority. SAUDIA AIRLINES Saudia suspended flights to Amman, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi until 10 March, and Moscow and Peshawar flights until 15 March. The Saudi airline said that flights to Dubai would be partially resumed 'on a limited timetable. TURKISH AIRLINES Turkish Transport Minister said that Turkish Airlines had removed Iran flights until March 12. The Turkish transport minister added that Turkish Airlines had cancelled all flights to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon until March 13. WIZZ AIR The low-cost carrier suspended flights from and to Israel, Dubai Abu Dhabi, and Amman until March 15. (Compiled by Josephine Mason and Jamie Freed; reporting by bureaus. Editing by Barbara Lewis and Louise Heavens; Christian Schmollinger; Matt Scuffham; and Milla Nissi Prussak.
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Ship tracking data shows that a Greek-operated oil tanker carrying Saudi cargo passes through Hormuz.
According to analysis of ship tracking platforms such as 'Kpler' and 'Lloyd's List' Intelligence, a Greek-operated tanker sailed across the Strait of Hormuz on Monday with a cargo of Saudi Arabian crude oil and India listed as its destination. Hundreds of ships are anchored on both sides of the strait as the U.S. and Israel war against Iran continues. The oil and shipping markets are watching for any signs of increased sailings through this critical waterway, through which most of the world's crude oil passes. MarineTraffic data showed that the Shenlong Suezmax, a tanker with a 1 million-barrel capacity, had loaded crude oil in the Saudi port of Ras Tanura. According to data, the vessel last recorded its position in the strait around March 8, before updating its location to indicate that it was sailing towards the Indian port of Mumbai. Dynacom, the vessel's Athens manager, did not respond immediately to a comment request. On Monday, oil?prices soared to $119 per barrel, a level not seen since mid-2022. This was due to a 'cut in supplies by Gulf producers and fears about a prolonged shipping disruption. Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary General of the International Maritime Organization, the United Nations shipping agency, stated on Monday that "all parties, and I reiterate, all parties, must respect freedom of navigation". He told an IMO gathering in London that he was "gravely concerned" about the recent attacks against merchant ships in the area of the Strait of Hormuz. According to an analysis by Kpler Intelligence and Lloyd's List Intelligence, two oil products tankers linked to Iran have made separate trips through Hormuz over the past few days. Ship trackers and traders reported on Friday that at least five tankers, each carrying a total of?around 11,000,000 barrels?of crude oil have left Iranian ports. Liquefied petroleum gas supplies are also on the move. According to United Against Nuclear Iran (which monitors Iran related tanker traffic via ship and satellite tracking), four separate'supertankers', each carrying two million barrels, and operated by Iranian oil tanker group NITC – which is under sanctions, and linked to Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards – arrived?in the waters around Singapore on a Monday. Reporting by Jonathan Saul, Renee Maltezou and Kirby Donovan; Editing by Jan Harvey and Kirby Donovan
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As flights to the Middle East cease, governments plan repatriations
Commercial flights have been grounded in some parts of the Middle East due to an escalating conflict after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. This has left foreigners stranded and prompted governments to plan for repatriation. Here is what the governments have said about plans for repatriation: AUSTRIA Austria’s Foreign Ministry said that it had assisted 117 vulnerable citizens to leave the UAE and Israel through neighbouring countries and had planned for a 170 person?charter flights from Muscat, on March 4, while warning travellers that they would have to take land departures at their own risk. BULGARIA GullivAir and Bulgaria Air, along with the State Aviation Operator, planned three flights to'return Bulgarians from Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Oman between March 4 and March 5. These included a GullivAir flight of 326 seats from Dubai, a Bulgaria Air Boeing 737 via 'Oman, and a 90-seat Government aircraft from Abu Dhabi. CZECH REPUBLIC Petr Macinka, Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that around 1,400 people had arrived in the Czech Republic via repatriation flight. ESTONIA On March 4, the Estonian foreign ministry announced that it had organized a 180-seater flight to Muscat for the next day. This flight was available to Estonian citizens living in Oman or the United Arab Emirates. EUROPEAN UNION As more members request assistance, the European Commission is now coordinating flights for repatriation under the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. A statement by the European Commission on March 9 stated that the EU had supported more than 42 flights to date, which brought over 4,100 Europeans back safely to Belgium, Bulgaria Czechia Italy, Cyprus, Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Austria, Portugal Romania, Slovakia and Sweden. FINLAND The Finnish foreign ministry announced that Finland would be arranging a single flight to repatriate about 160 Finns stranded on the island of the United Arab Emirates, on 8 March. Finnair announced on March 6th that it would be operating flights from Muscat to Helsinki in order to transport customers stranded at Dubai home. The first flight will take place on March 10 with additional flights scheduled later in the week. FRANCE The French Foreign Minister said that several flights to bring back French nationals who are currently in the area (around 400,000) were being planned as of March 4. France has deployed consular teams to Israel's border with Egypt and Jordan in order to facilitate the land exit of people so they can continue their journey by air. A similar mechanism has been implemented in the UAE, at the borders with Oman, Saudi Arabia and other countries, where there is no restriction on airspace. GERMANY After the first flight landed in Frankfurt on March 5, the German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul announced that two flights, each carrying about 250 passengers, were planned for March 5-6. GREECE The Greek Foreign Ministry said that it had repatriated hundreds citizens from Abu Dhabi, Dubai Jerusalem, Oman, and the UAE in the last week. HUNGARY On March 4, 87 people returned to Hungary from Amman in Jordan. Another flight, carrying 88 passengers, is scheduled for March 5. A second flight from Sharm-el Sheikh in Egypt was also scheduled for the 6th of March. Hungary rented a Flydubai aircraft for March '5 and '6 to bring Hungarians back from Dubai. On March 7 and 8, Hungary had two separate flights departing from Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. ITALY The Italian foreign ministry reported that about 25,000 Italians returned from the Middle East via commercial flights facilitated through the ministry. The consular service has been expanded in Oman, the UAE, and Bahrain. It also coordinates the return of large groups from the UAE, and other groups travelling via land to Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Italians living in Oman and Israel as well as the Maldives, Thailand, and Thailand receive assistance. Netherlands The Dutch government said on Friday that it is preparing to use the military to repatriate citizens who cannot leave their countries on their own. The Dutch government did not give any details about specific countries or timing. POLAND Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces reported that the first group of Polish nationals evacuated from the Middle East by military airlift arrived in Poland on 6 March. PORTUGAL The Portuguese Foreign Ministry is planning to repatriate more of the 139 Portuguese and eight foreigners on board a charter TAP flight that landed at Lisbon, Portugal on March 6. ROMANIA The Romanian Foreign Ministry announced on 4 March that FlyDubai had scheduled two flights from Dubai to Bucharest for March 4 and 5. The ministry reported that FlyDubai had scheduled two flights to Bucharest on March 4 and 5. SERBIA Air Serbia's flight from Sharm el-Sheikh landed at Belgrade in the early hours of March 4 with 67 passengers. All were?evacuees from Israel. SINGAPORE The foreign affairs ministry announced on Facebook that the government would deploy an A330 multi-role air force aircraft to assist Singaporeans in departing Riyadh from the country on March 10. A second flight out of Saudi Arabia is planned for the 12th. SLOVAKIA The Slovakian government has conducted six repatriation flight with 248 passengers. 189 of them were Slovaks, and the remainder were foreigners. On Thursday, the Foreign Ministry announced that eight additional evacuation flights from Jordan and Oman would be carried out by the end the week. SLOVENIA The prime minister's statement said that Slovenia organized four buses to transport Slovenian citizens, including families with children, from Dubai to Muscat Airport in Oman on March 3. Two more flights are scheduled for March 4, with the first flight to Slovenia being organised on 3 March. According to Jose Manuel Albares, the Spanish government began evacuating citizens from?the Middle East? on March 3. More than 175 Spaniards arrived on a flight via Abu Dhabi. Albares stated that Spain is also strengthening its embassies to the UAE, Saudi Arabia Oman, Bahrain and Bahrain in order to provide further support and facilitate repatriations. SWEDEN Sweden chartered a plane on Saturday to bring back 180 Swedes who were identified as vulnerable. THAILAND Thailand will?evacuate its nationals by land from Iran to Turkey between March 7 and 10 while those stranded in Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain as well as the UAE, Jordan and the UAE are either returning or will do so once airspace is reopened. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES State news agency WAM reports that the UAE Civil Aviation Authority plans to start operating "special flight" across all of the country's international airports in order to assist some of the tens and thousands of passengers stuck in the region to leave. UNITED KINGDOM The British Foreign Office reported that after 130,000 UK citizens registered for presence in the region, British chartered flight left Oman on 5 March after technical delays on 4 March. Priority was given to vulnerable UK nationals who wanted to leave the area.
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MD: Crude shipping costs from Nigerian terminals to Dangote Refinery quadruple.
David Bird, Managing Director of the Dangote Refinery, said that the cost of?crude shipments to the Dangote Refinery from a?Nigerian terminal has risen to $3.5m a day, up from $800k a week ago. He blamed the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Bird said that the Dangote Refinery is operating at its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and will continue to operate as long as Nigerian crude oil can be purchased at international benchmark prices. The crude oil prices were stable in the mid-sixties a week ago. Bird told reporters in Lagos that the price of crude oil was now $118. "If you 'look 'at freight rates (it) costs us about $800,000.00 a day to bring crude?on tankers from a Nigerian Terminal?to our Refinery. This is currently $3.5 million." Reporting by?Isaac Anyaogu, Writing by Chijioke Ahuocha, Editing by Emelia?Sithole-Matarise & Jan Harvey
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Hungary asks EU for suspension of sanctions against Russian energy
Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister, called for the European Union on Monday to suspend sanctions on Russian energy and convened a government emergency meeting.to address rising fuel costs.just five weeks prior to a pivotal election. The war in Iran has fueled a rise in oil prices that have pushed up diesel and petrol costs in Hungary. Orban is now facing a challenge as he prepares for parliamentary elections on April 12, where he will be fighting to maintain his 16-year hold on power. Orban's Fidesz is trailing the centre-right Tisza despite having launched a series of measures that have increased the budget deficit. However, the result of the election remains uncertain. The figures released earlier on Monday revealed that the budget deficit in the first half of 2026 was close to the target of?half. The Middle East war and Ukraine's oil blockade are pushing up prices. Orban, in a blog post on X, wrote that Europe must accept reality. We need to review all sanctions against Russian energy and lift them. On Monday, oil prices soared above $119 per barrel. This was the highest level since mid-2022. Governments scrambled in an effort to minimize the impact of this on their economies and consumers. Orban claimed he called the meeting to "protect Hungarians" from high fuel costs. He said in a Facebook posting that fuel prices "cannot rise to an unbearable amount." Orban's previous government had set a cap on?fuel prices for April 2022 in an attempt to control inflation. Orban won the election by a large margin. He was forced to remove the fuel price cap in December 2022 due to fuel shortages caused by a lack imports and panic buying. Hungary faces additional pressure as the?flows? of Russian oil through Druzhba?pipeline are suspended since late January, when Kyiv claimed that the pipeline had been damaged by a Russian strike. This interruption has caused tensions between Kyiv and Hungary.
Bousso: Mideast oil shock signals a supply crunch.
The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has caused a sudden and acute disruption in Middle East oil supply, forcing buyers to use every barrel available. This is quickly destroying forecasts for an oil glut. The International Energy Agency predicted in February that the global oil supply would exceed demand by 3.7 million barrels a day (bpd). This surplus was expected to last into 2026. One month later, this projection seems outdated. After the nearly complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf is effectively stranded with 15 million barrels per day of crude oil production and 4.5 millions barrels per day of refined fuels. The Strait of Hormuz was closed shortly after the launch of the joint U.S. and Israeli aerial bombing campaign on Iran, which Tehran responded by targeting Gulf States and regional energy infrastructure. Oil markets and wider economies have been shocked by the loss of a massive amount of supply, which is equivalent to nearly a fifth daily global consumption. Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged over $90 per barrel on Friday. This is a gain of nearly 30% in the last week since the conflict began. Asia, which imports 60% of its crude oil from the Middle East is the worst hit. To conserve feedstocks, refineries and petrochemicals in the Middle East have reduced production or closed their doors. Other energy-intensive industries such as ceramics, car manufacturing and others are also facing severe shortages. It is impossible to know how long the conflict and the Hormuz shut down will last. The pressure on the oil supply chain increases with every passing day.
You are running out of time and space
The Gulf producers have run out of options. Crude is being pushed to offshore and onshore tanks due to the blockage of exports. Iraq, with limited storage options has already stopped at least one-quarter of its production of 4.3 million barrels per day. Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia - the world's biggest exporter - have some storage capacity left – but it is measured in days not weeks. Saudi Arabia and UAE are able to divert crude oil through other export routes but this only partly offsets the loss of Hormuz. Storage will fill up, forcing more producers to reduce output and idle refineries.
It is difficult to shut down oil fields in a safe manner. It can take weeks or even days to restart them and reach full production, which has a far-reaching impact on the market. Refiners, particularly in Asia, are scrambling to get barrels.
TAPPING AVAILABLE STOCK The good news is, inventories have been increasing in recent months due to the increased output of producers such as OPEC. According to the IEA, global oil inventories increased by 1.3m bpd or 477m barrels in 2025. This was their highest level since March 20, 21.
Kpler's data shows that around 80 million barrels of oil are stored at sea on tankers, and nearly two thirds of them are in Asia.
Most buyers are unable to access a large portion of this "floating storage", as it comes from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. All three countries are subject to Western sanctions. Around 50 million barrels of Iranian crude are alone. But some of this oil is beginning to move. On Thursday, the U.S. granted India a waiver for buying Russian crude in order to assist refiners. New Delhi cut its imports sharply last month in accordance with a deal reached with Washington.
By March 6, the amount of Russian crude oil in floating storage had already dropped from 7,7 million barrels, just before the Iranian strikes.
Independent Chinese refiners are expected to take the majority of Iranian barrels located outside of the Gulf, or those that can get through the Strait.
Middle East producers will almost certainly draw on their overseas stock to meet their contractual obligations with buyers.
If the disruption continues, governments will be under increasing pressure to tap into their own reserves. OECD member countries hold strategic petroleum reserves that were created in the 1970s to address supply shocks. According to IEA regulations, countries that import oil net must have stocks equal to 90 days of imports. The U.S. is the largest oil consumer and producer in the world. It currently has more than 400,000,000 barrels of reserves. This is well below the 700 million barrels that it can hold, but since it is not a net energy importer, there is little risk in cutting into its reserves. China is the biggest unknown. According to the IEA, Beijing quietly accumulated vast reserves of oil in recent years. It added an average amount of 300,000 bpd just last year. It hasn't announced any plans to release the stocks yet, but it has told refiners to reduce fuel exports.
UNPRECEDENTED CRISE Global reserves, although ample at the beginning of this crisis are finite. This is a shock: the Strait of Hormuz was never completely blocked before. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to be reopened tomorrow it would still take weeks to restore finely calibrated supply chain and rebalance markets.
If some Gulf oil production was diverted, it would take more than 100,000,000 barrels of stored oil to offset a disruption in supply of 15,000,000 bpd. A prolonged outage at that rate would quickly erode global stocks.
Paul Horsnell is an independent oil analyst. He said, "It's very difficult for stock to compensate for flows. Especially when the reduction in flows is that large." In the event that stocks are depleted then governments and traders will need to replenish them. This would mean a higher demand for oil, as well as a higher price, in the next year. The Middle East's supply shock has already flipped expectations of a glut to a scenario that is more realistic: undersupply.
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(source: Reuters)