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Asian spot prices remain stable on low demand

The Asian spot LNG prices remained stable this week, as regional demand was muted. Meanwhile, a gas supply agreement between Russia and China could curb future LNG shipments by the largest Asian importer.

Average LNG price for delivery in October to Northeast Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $11,30, a slight increase from $11,15/mmBtu in the previous week.

Masanori Odaka of Rystad Energy said that east Asian importers showed a muted interest in purchasing cargoes, although some Japanese and Korean firms offered to deliver them by the fourth quarter. Current prices are still above what some end users consider acceptable.

He added that Chinese importers also stayed away from the current spot price, and most utilities were only interested in buying at $10.50/mmBtu.

Beijing and Moscow signed an agreement this week to increase the gas supply through the existing Power of Siberia pipe and to build the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. However, they are yet to agree on the pricing.

Klaas Dzeman, an analyst at Brainchild Commodity Intelligence, stated that China is sending out a geopolitical message that it wants to receive more Russian natural gas. This will reduce its LNG dependence from other sources by 2027, and influence the profitability of LNG producers.

Analysts and industry players are also watching to see if more tankers sanctioned with Arctic LNG 2 supplies will deliver additional cargoes into China.

In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights set its daily North West Europe Gas Marker benchmark price for cargoes to be delivered in October ex-ship at $10.475, a discount of $0.625/mmBtu from the October futures prices at the Dutch TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities set the price at $10.442/mmBtu while Argus put it at $10.49/mmBtu.

Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for S&P Global Commodity Insights.

This also comes as imports to Europe have experienced a slight decline, due to the cooling of heatwaves. Also, easing concerns over storage has added more bearish tailwinds in the market.

Qasim Afghan, Spark Commodities analyst, stated that the U.S. arbitrage for Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope has shrunk significantly in recent weeks, and only marginally influenced U.S. cargo shipments to Europe. Arbitrage via Panama also increased and now opens to Asia.

He said that the Atlantic LNG rates dropped to $28,500/day last Friday while Pacific LNG rates fell to $32,500/day.

(source: Reuters)