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Asia spot prices flat on ample supply, soft demand

The Asian spot price of liquefied gas was flat this week due to ample supplies and a soft demand.

Average LNG price for delivery to northeast Asia in December Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is $11.10.

Martin Senior, head LNG pricing at Argus said that the spot demand in Northeast Asia was weak. There were ample inventories, and forecasts did not deviate too much from seasonal averages.

He said that "Spot charter prices have continued to increase, which is the primary reason behind the wider spread between Asian-European prices. Asian prices must hold a higher premium in order to continue to attract the same flows."

Senior added that the tightness in the market is only temporary, as forward charter rates for January are less than half the current spot price.

Toby Copson is managing partner of Davenport Energy Partners. He said that the market was also well-supplied for now, as cyclical heating demands in China, the top importer, have yet to appear and marginal demand has been absorbed by pipeline flows.

The Situation in Europe

In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights set its daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker benchmark price for cargoes to be delivered in December, on a ship-to-ship basis, at $10.138/mmBtu, on November 6. This is a $0.54/mmBtu reduction from the December price at TTF's Dutch hub. Prices were rangebound throughout the week due to healthy supplies, ample storage and a muted demand.

Spark Commodities determined the price to be $10.129/mmBtu. Argus set it at $10.17/mmBtu.

Gas inventories in Europe are still around 83% due to the weather, but LNG imports remain high, said Siamak Adibi. He is director of gas and LNG supply analysis at consultancy FGE.

Seb Kennedy, an independent gas analyst, said that hedge fund managers were shorting TTF contracts hard as the bearish pressure on benchmark EU gas futures was increasing.

US LNG LOADINGS AT NEW HIGH

Siamak said that on the supply side U.S. LNG loads have reached new record highs while new projects ramp up smoothly. He was referring to recent projects such as the start-ups of Train 2 at LNG Canada and Golden Pass, Texas, early next year.

The U.S. front month arbitrage for Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope is still closed and points to Europe rather than Asia this week, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan. However, arbitrage via Panama is still open.

He added that LNG freight rates have risen to new highs of $68,000/day in the Atlantic and $44,500/day in the Pacific, both year-to date highs. (Reporting and editing by Mark Potter.)

(source: Reuters)