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Norway expects Russian sabotage and spying to increase in the Arctic.

The Norwegian security services expect Russia to increase its spying on Norway in the coming year with an emphasis on the Arctic. Moscow could also 'commit' acts of sabotage that undermine Oslo’s support for Ukraine.

Norway, a close ally of Ukraine, and Europe's largest supplier of pipeline natural gas, is increasingly worried that Russian intelligence agencies may target its energy infrastructure either physically or through cyberattacks.

In a report on the annual threat assessment published on Friday, Norwegian security services (PST), said that they expect Russian intelligence services will increase their activity in Norway by 2026. They are expected to continue focusing on military targets, allied exercises, Norway’s support for Ukraine and operations in "the High North and Arctic region".

Russia has consistently denied any involvement in sabotage plans or attacks and rejects these accusations as Western scaremongering.

EXPELLED RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS

Norway has expulsed Russian intelligence officers working under diplomatic cover and closed most of its ports for Russian vessels. This limits Moscow's flexibility. Security services expect Russian agencies to adapt.

PST's Head?Beate. Gangaas said that "they will seek to compensate for what they have lost... and find other ways to obtain information."

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, officials in Europe are growing more concerned about what they see as a rise in hybrid threats coming from Russia.

NATO's top commander warned that the alliance needs to be prepared to deal with these threats in order to defend itself.

PST reported that Russia will likely continue to monitor the rugged Norwegian coast and map its critical infrastructure using civilian vessels.

ATTEMPTS to RECRUIT UKRAINIAN Refugiees

It was also warned that Russian services were increasingly recruiting Ukrainian refugees to Norway for intelligence gathering and sabotage. This is especially true of those who have family or property located in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

The Russian Embassy in Norway was not available to comment.

PST said that with around 100,000 Ukrainian refugees living in Norway, this recruitment is "a major challenge".

Norway monitors Russian military activity on the North Atlantic coast and in the Kola peninsula, which is home to the Northern Fleet of Russia and its majority of second-strike capability.

Vice Admiral Nils Steensoenes of Norway's military intelligence said: "We are NATO's eyes and ears in northern Europe, and we call it rightfully so."

He sees China as expanding its Arctic presence, and Beijing laying the groundwork for a future Arctic actor. "Militarily,?that's a long time away," he said.

The NIS reported that Beijing operated five research ships in the Arctic Ocean in 2018. This is up from just three in 2024, and only one the year before.

"It is still mainly in the eastern part and less in our region." Stensoenes said, "We see very few Chinese activities on the Greenland coastline further west."

(source: Reuters)