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Minister: Three Indian flagged oil tankers have cleared the Strait of Hormuz
Sarbananda Snowal, the shipping minister said that three Indian-flagged oil tankers with more than 860,000 metric tonnes of 'oil and 94 Indian crew have safely transited 'Strait of Hormuz. They are now en route to India. Sonowal announced on X the Desh Vaibhav?, Desh Vibhor?? and Sanmar Herald have all completed their transit. The United States and Iran have signed a ceasefire agreement, which has led to an increase in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf producers are preparing to boost?exports regardless of concerns about?conditions that Tehran set for the use of the waterway. Washington and Tehran have released the text for the interim agreement they signed on Wednesday. U.S. president Donald Trump has warned that if the commitments made are not kept, he will resume his attacks against Iranian officials. Thirteen cargoes with Indian flags were stranded at the Strait of Hormuz prior to the?transit of?three cargoes Sonowal said, "Our Ministry is actively working with all relevant agencies in order to ensure 'the safety of the?Bharat seafarers as well as energy lifelines.
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Judge rules that the wife of Spanish PM must face corruption charges
A 'judge' ruled that the?wife of Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez must face corruption charges, and is banned from leaving Spain. Begona Gómez is being investigated over allegations that she abused her position as wife of the Prime Minister to obtain work contracts. She denies all wrongdoing. The far-right groups brought the case. The investigating judge,?Juan Carlos Peinado, ordered Gomez surrender her passport and barred her from leaving Spain. She was also required to appear in court twice per month. Sanchez, Europe's last leftist leader, is weighing down by several corruption cases that are nearing or have already been tried. He hasn't been named in any of these cases, and he has claimed that they are all part of an effort to remove him from his office. The Socialist Party reacted quickly to the ruling of the judge, posting on social media X that "(Begona has been subjected?)to judicial and politcal persecution for two year. The development of today is a step forward in this process." Investigations are underway against several close friends, including the number three of the Socialist Party and Sanchez's ex-transport minister. The cases involve alleged kickbacks in connection with public works contracts, oil and gas deals, and the purchase of masks for the pandemic. They deny any wrongdoing. Separately the Spanish High Court announced that it was investigating ex-prime minister?Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero for allegations he led a?network?that benefited from lobbying government authorities on behalf third parties including airline Plus Ultra. He denies these claims. Reporting by Graham Keeley. Mark Potter edited the story.
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Nine people are still in critical condition following fatal UK train accident
The 'driver' of one of the trains was killed in the crash that occurred on Friday near Bedford, approximately 60 miles (100km) north of London. Around 5.15 pm local time (16:15 GMT), two passenger trains headed for London collided on Friday. One of the drivers of the two trains died at the scene. British Transport Police Chief Constable, Lucy D'Orsi, provided an update of those injured in the crash that occurred on Saturday. She said more than eighty people were hospitalized on Friday evening. She said that as of "this morning", 28 people were still in the hospital and nine are in critical condition. D'Orsi said that investigators were trying to determine what caused the accident. One of the passengers posted a video on Facebook on Friday showing what appeared to be the damaged front of one railcar entangled with another's back, while the carriages remained upright. In a blog post on X, Prime Minister Keir starmer called it a "devastating event". Buckingham Palace, the official residence of King Charles I, also released a statement saying that "His Majesty is deeply saddened by yesterday's rail crash in Bedford and is regularly kept updated on developments." "His thoughts?and sympathies are with the family of the deceased as well as with those who were injured or affected in such a tragic event." (Reporting and editing by William James)
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Judge rules that the wife of Spanish PM must face corruption charges
A?judge's ruling?on Saturday said that the wife of Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will be tried on corruption charges, and is banned from leaving the country. Begona Gomez faces an investigation for allegedly using her position as wife of the Prime Minister to obtain work contracts. She denies all wrongdoing. The case was brought by?far-right groups. The investigating judge Juan Carlos Peinado required Gomez to surrender her passport, bar her from leaving Spain, and require her to "report twice a monthly to court." This case is just one of many corruption?probes that are nearing or have already been tried and weighing down on?Sanchez. He's one of Europe’s last leftist leaders. He hasn't been named in the cases, but has claimed that they are all part of an effort to remove him from his office. Investigations are underway against several?close ally, including the number three of the Socialist Party and Sanchez's ex-transport minister. The cases involve alleged kickbacks in connection with public?works?,?oil contracts?, and the purchase of masks for the pandemic. They deny any wrongdoing. Separately the Spanish High Court announced that it was investigating Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero for allegations that he led a 'network' of lobbyists who profited by lobbying public authorities on behalf third parties including airline Plus Ultra. He denies these claims. Reporting by Graham Keeley. Mark Potter edited the story.
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Business Post reports that Ryanair CEO O'Leary believes fares will remain 'flat' this summer.
Michael O'Leary, Chief Executive Officer of Ryanair Group, told Ireland's Business Post newspaper that: He said: "We believe that?bookings will get a little boost as we move into the summer peak. I would use 'inverted commas' to say 'the peace agreement between Iran and the US.' But spot oil prices have fallen significantly." * "We don't expect prices to rise this summer into the peak. "I'm not sure that prices will drop, volumes are high, but pricing appears to be similar to last year," said he. We're not under pressure to hedge into May, June or July of next year. If prices fell to the low $80s, or even below $80, we would certainly start hedging summer '27. Here is the source text for more company coverage.
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Uganda: Islamic Development Bank approves EUR650 Million Loan
The executive board of the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), announced late Friday, approved a EUR650.7m ($746.2m) loan to Uganda 'to help finance its standard gauge rail project. Uganda is raising money for the EUR2.7billion?project. It has already received backing from lenders such as the World Bank and?African Development Bank. Citibank has been appointed to assist in the mobilisation of?financing. Turkish company Yapi Merkezi is responsible for the construction of the railway. IsDB was one of Uganda's largest sources of external funding and had, as of the end May, projects in a country east of Africa worth $896.5 Million, according to government data. The 272-km line (169-miles) will connect landlocked Uganda to Kenya's rail system, giving it access to the Indian Ocean port at Mombasa through which Uganda imports most of its goods.
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Drone attack on Panama flagged ship in Black Sea kills one, injures two
Panama's Maritime Authority said that two crew members were injured and one was killed in a drone attack against a Panama flagged ship in the Black Sea. The AMP'said that the incident took place on Thursday - and that one of those injured was in a'serious condition. It?added that the ship was able?to continue?on course. The authority said that it had "activated relevant protocols to collect official information about the incident and maintain communication with the parties concerned." The AMP 'didn't say where the drone came from but advised ships to avoid travelling?through Ukrainian - and Russian waters in Black Sea, & the Sea of Azov,??to the north. Panama is the largest ship registry in the world, with 16% of the global merchant fleet under its flag. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes; Elida Moreno)
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Trump unveils Qatari Boeing 747 before joining Air Force One
The President Donald Trump got to see his upgraded Boeing 747, which was a gift from Qatar, on Friday at the Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, as the aircraft approached delivery and would join the Air Force One fleet. This is the most luxurious aircraft in the world. It was built to a standard that was probably never seen before," Trump said in front of a crowd gathered at a brand new hangar on the base. The jumbo jet, which Qatar gave to Trump as a present last year, has been overhauled and repainted in the red, white and dark blue livery that Trump chose. This is a departure from Air Force One's iconic design. Trump said that the upgrade was needed to keep up with foreign leaders who fly more modern aircraft. "These countries respect us a great deal, but they also have an aircraft that is much better and newer." Trump said, "It's a bit ridiculous." Trump has said that the rest of Air Force One's fleet will be redesigned. The new addition to Trump’s fleet will provide a modern, luxurious aircraft that the president, his aides and security detail, as well as the media, can travel on. The cost of the upgrade has not been revealed, and because it was completed so quickly, some experts are concerned that it might not be as safe as Air Force One. Air Force fast-track program skipped some planned modifications to the next-generation Presidential jet to deliver interim version earlier, but officials claimed?it was upto presidential standards. In a Friday statement, Secretary of Air Force Troy Meink stated that "the safety and security of the commander-in-chief is our top priority." "We meticulously evaluated each requirement from the start to ensure delivery was expedited while maintaining the high standard expected for the presidential mission." JULY 4, WASHINGTON FLYOVER Trump said the aircraft would lead the formation, which he called the "biggest in American history", during the July 4th ceremony on the National Mall. Trump said, "This will lead a large group of planes." Trump arrived back in the United States on Thursday morning, aboard a Boeing 747-200 military grade that has been serving U.S. Presidents for over three decades. Trump announced that this was the final flight of the aircraft, and it would be eventually placed in a Museum. The U.S. government accepting the 747 luxury jet from Qatar raised concerns about whether this was an excessively expensive gift. Trump dismissed criticisms of the arrangement by saying that it would be "stupid' to reject the offer. Experts said that retrofitting the luxury aircraft required upgrades in security, communication to prevent eavesdropping and missile defense capabilities. Democratic senators estimated that the conversion would cost more than $1 billion, and increase security risks. The Qatari aircraft is being used as a temporary bridge while Boeing delivers two 747-8s built to order under a fixed-price $3.9 billion contract signed in 2018. The program is currently four years behind schedule. Delivery will not be expected until the middle of 2028. This delay could leave Trump without a plane by January 2029, when his term ends. The Boeing program has cost more than $5 billion. Boeing posted $2.4 billion of charges against its earnings. The new color scheme is a departure from the two-tone white and blue design that dates back to President John F. Kennedy. The Air Force has revived a palette of red, white and navy blue that Trump had pushed for but was scrapped by the service in 2022 because darker colors were deemed to be overheating. The new livery, which includes red, white and dark blue, will also be used on the VC-25B, the military designation of the Boeing 747-8, and four modified Boeing 757 200s that are used to transport senior officials, including the vice president and cabinet members. (Reporting from Washington by Mike Stone; Jarrett Renshaw, additional reporting; and Alistair Bell, Stephen Coates and Edmund Klamann editing)
Bousso: Trump's sweet spot for oil prices is a 'no-man's-land' for the rest of us.
In recent months, oil prices have fluctuated within a relatively small range between $60 and $70 per barrel. This reflects both concerns over rising supplies of oil as well as trade wars or geopolitical conflict. This may be a sweet corner for U.S. president Donald Trump but it's a "no-man's land" for oil producers. The low end of the range was reached in mid-October. This allowed Trump to carry out his promise to impose severe sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil & Rosneft. These two giants account for 5% of world output. Trump calculated that escalating the economic war against Moscow wouldn't lead to a severe disruption or price spikes, as the oil market was currently oversupplied. At the same, prices at the current level do not threaten the United States as the top oil producer in the world. In October, the U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its production forecasts by 100,000 barrels a day to 13.5 millions bpd. It also raised output forecasts for next year.
CONFUSION REIGNS ON MARKET DIRECTION
Does the U.S. President have a right to expect that prices will stay rangebound?
What you say depends on whom you ask. The International Energy Agency predicts a massive oversupply next year of nearly 4%, or 4 million barrels per day. This could cause prices to crash, and force many producers into drastic production cuts.
The world's leaders in energy do not appear to be overly concerned. The heads of oil trading companies in Abu Dhabi predicted last week that Brent oil would remain within the $60-$70 range for the next year. Some even suggested that the feared oil oversupply might not be as great as the IEA estimates. This is due to disagreements over demand. While IEA analysts expect consumption to increase by 700,000 bpd in this year, OPEC analysts put growth at nearly twice that rate, at 1.3million bpd. China's massive stockpiles this year for which Beijing has not provided any data have further confused the picture of demand. The lack of visibility of a large part of the oil markets due to the increased use of tankers that violate sanctions to transport Russian oil, Iranian oil, and Venezuelan crude has also clouded the picture of supply.
OPEC+ is clearly hedging their bets. Last week, it called for a modest rise in production in December to 137,000 bpd. This would be followed by a break through the first quarter next year.
MAJOR MUDDLE THROUGH
Western oil majors have signaled that they do not expect to see dramatic changes in prices in the foreseeable future.
Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are among the major U.S. producers of shale oils that plan to increase their output in coming years. Exxon Mobil, the biggest U.S. oil company, increased its production forecast for 2025 in the oil-rich Permian Basin by 100,000 barrels per day, to 1.6 millions boed. It maintained the 2027 output of 2 million boed.
Chevron increased its Permian production in the third quarter, and intends to keep it at 1,000,000 boed over many years. In recent years, these firms have made significant cost reductions to be able to pay dividends and generate profits even when crude oil prices are around $60 per barrel. Oil majors have even indicated that they can continue to repurchase shares at current prices. However, they may need debt markets in order to do this.
SWEET SPOT OR "NO MAN'S LAND"?
Does this mean everyone will be satisfied if the prices stay within today's small band? Hardly.
Many OPEC producers need oil prices to be much higher than the current range for their national finances. Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven is $92 per barrel, according the International Monetary Fund.
The current oil price range also poses a problem for the market in general. The supply-demand equilibrium will be in limbo until prices break through the floor of this range. If OPEC's optimistic forecasts of demand do not materialize, a violent price correction could occur.
This is because swing producers, especially U.S. Shale Drillers, won't be forced to drastically reduce production until prices drop below $60 per barrel over a long period of time.
According to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, existing wells in big shale areas can produce profit at U.S. crude oil prices of between $26 and $45 per barrel.
According to the survey, companies are also planning on drilling new wells between $61-$70 per barrel. Big offshore projects can also generate profits for much lower prices, between $40 and $50 per barrel.
The risk of overproduction will continue to increase if these producers maintain production.
There are certainly signs that drilling activity is slowing down in the U.S. Shale. According to Baker Hughes, the number of rigs operating onshore has decreased by 10% this year.
If the IEA oversupply scenario becomes reality, a larger correction will be required. Oil would need to fall to $50 per barrel for a prolonged period of time to force producers into a sharply reduced drilling activity.
President Trump – and U.S. customers – might be okay with it, but U.S. manufacturers and many OPEC member states would not.
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(source: Reuters)