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Bousso: Trump's sweet spot for oil prices is a 'no-man's-land' for the rest of us.

In recent months, oil prices have fluctuated within a relatively small range between $60 and $70 per barrel. This reflects both concerns over rising supplies of oil as well as trade wars or geopolitical conflict. This may be a sweet corner for U.S. president Donald Trump but it's a "no-man's land" for oil producers. The low end of the range was reached in mid-October. This allowed Trump to carry out his promise to impose severe sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil & Rosneft. These two giants account for 5% of world output. Trump calculated that escalating the economic war against Moscow wouldn't lead to a severe disruption or price spikes, as the oil market was currently oversupplied. At the same, prices at the current level do not threaten the United States as the top oil producer in the world. In October, the U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its production forecasts by 100,000 barrels a day to 13.5 millions bpd. It also raised output forecasts for next year.

CONFUSION REIGNS ON MARKET DIRECTION

Does the U.S. President have a right to expect that prices will stay rangebound?

What you say depends on whom you ask. The International Energy Agency predicts a massive oversupply next year of nearly 4%, or 4 million barrels per day. This could cause prices to crash, and force many producers into drastic production cuts.

The world's leaders in energy do not appear to be overly concerned. The heads of oil trading companies in Abu Dhabi predicted last week that Brent oil would remain within the $60-$70 range for the next year. Some even suggested that the feared oil oversupply might not be as great as the IEA estimates. This is due to disagreements over demand. While IEA analysts expect consumption to increase by 700,000 bpd in this year, OPEC analysts put growth at nearly twice that rate, at 1.3million bpd. China's massive stockpiles this year for which Beijing has not provided any data have further confused the picture of demand. The lack of visibility of a large part of the oil markets due to the increased use of tankers that violate sanctions to transport Russian oil, Iranian oil, and Venezuelan crude has also clouded the picture of supply.

OPEC+ is clearly hedging their bets. Last week, it called for a modest rise in production in December to 137,000 bpd. This would be followed by a break through the first quarter next year.

MAJOR MUDDLE THROUGH

Western oil majors have signaled that they do not expect to see dramatic changes in prices in the foreseeable future.

Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are among the major U.S. producers of shale oils that plan to increase their output in coming years. Exxon Mobil, the biggest U.S. oil company, increased its production forecast for 2025 in the oil-rich Permian Basin by 100,000 barrels per day, to 1.6 millions boed. It maintained the 2027 output of 2 million boed.

Chevron increased its Permian production in the third quarter, and intends to keep it at 1,000,000 boed over many years. In recent years, these firms have made significant cost reductions to be able to pay dividends and generate profits even when crude oil prices are around $60 per barrel. Oil majors have even indicated that they can continue to repurchase shares at current prices. However, they may need debt markets in order to do this.

SWEET SPOT OR "NO MAN'S LAND"?

Does this mean everyone will be satisfied if the prices stay within today's small band? Hardly.

Many OPEC producers need oil prices to be much higher than the current range for their national finances. Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven is $92 per barrel, according the International Monetary Fund.

The current oil price range also poses a problem for the market in general. The supply-demand equilibrium will be in limbo until prices break through the floor of this range. If OPEC's optimistic forecasts of demand do not materialize, a violent price correction could occur.

This is because swing producers, especially U.S. Shale Drillers, won't be forced to drastically reduce production until prices drop below $60 per barrel over a long period of time.

According to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, existing wells in big shale areas can produce profit at U.S. crude oil prices of between $26 and $45 per barrel.

According to the survey, companies are also planning on drilling new wells between $61-$70 per barrel. Big offshore projects can also generate profits for much lower prices, between $40 and $50 per barrel.

The risk of overproduction will continue to increase if these producers maintain production.

There are certainly signs that drilling activity is slowing down in the U.S. Shale. According to Baker Hughes, the number of rigs operating onshore has decreased by 10% this year.

If the IEA oversupply scenario becomes reality, a larger correction will be required. Oil would need to fall to $50 per barrel for a prolonged period of time to force producers into a sharply reduced drilling activity.

President Trump – and U.S. customers – might be okay with it, but U.S. manufacturers and many OPEC member states would not.

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(source: Reuters)