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Bousso: The IEA's optimistic oil forecast is a wink to Trump and a wake-up for the world.

The International Energy Agency’s latest outlook indicates that oil demand could continue to rise into 2050. This is a dramatic shift from previous reports, and it serves as a reminder of the importance of black gold in the global economic system.

The IEA published its annual World Energy Outlook on Wednesday. It outlines different paths for energy demand up to 2050. This is a fairly routine release, but this year it has become a political issue. The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump has accused the Paris-based energy watchdog of politicising its report that suggests fossil fuel demand could plateau in 2030. Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary of the United States, has called peak oil demand a "nonsense".

The 2025 report presented a new scenario that showed that oil consumption will not plateau by 2030, but instead will reach 113 million barrels a day at mid-century. This is an increase of around 13% over 2024.

TROUBLING MESSAGE ABOUT GLOBAL WINTER WARMING

The Current Policy Scenario's (CPS) "existing policies", which are baked into it, range from renewables laws and fossil fuel extraction to construction standards and vehicle emissions standards.

The CPS scenario, which is the most common among IEA's projections, takes a "prudent perspective" in regards to the adoption rate of new technologies. It therefore gives fossil fuels a greater role in the future. This reversal may be welcomed by former critics of IEA as a dose of reality that is needed to counteract the organization's green tendencies. To be fair, the previous scenarios were probably overly optimistic regarding the implementation of climate friendly policies and the move away from fossil-fuels.

The message CPS sends is disturbing, even if you put aside the political issues.

The report indicates that temperatures will rise by 2.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2100. This is far more than the 1.5 degree target set by scientists to prevent the worst impacts of climate changes.

If you're right, then the world is in serious trouble.

CPS IS BASED ON QUESTIONABLE ASSURANCES

The CPS, however, is based on some very questionable assumptions.

It assumes, first, that recent technological leaps, which led to sharp drops in the costs of batteries, renewables and electric vehicles, will stagnate or even decrease in certain countries until 2035. The report also assumes that internal combustion engine efficiency will slow after 2035. This is a trend that has lasted for decades.

The CPS's optimistic oil demand forecast is based on a conservative estimate of the growth rate for EV sales. In 2025, EV sales will account for 25% of global new car sales, up from 5% of sales in 2020.

The energy outlook is impacted by the projections related to automobiles because today, road transport accounts for 45% of oil consumption worldwide.

The CPS assumes that the EV market share in the United States, India and China will remain at 15%.

It is difficult to extrapolate from the fact that EVs have become cheaper and more advanced in recent years to project future demand.

Will U.S. customers really continue to use an old technology when newer technologies become more affordable?

The CPS also assumes that gasoline and diesel will continue to increase in consumption until 2050. This would require new refinery capacity. This type of investment, which is capital intensive, will not be possible unless oil prices continue to rise for a significant period.

Obviously, higher gas prices will make internal combustion vehicles less competitive with battery-powered cars. CPS is based on the assumption that the barriers to the adoption and development of low-carbon technologies are only going to increase. These assumptions are somewhat baffling, given the huge investments that are expected to be made in this field globally. Investments in clean energy technologies are projected to reach $2.2 trillion by 2025.

NET 'ZERO HOUR'?

The IEA has a right to acknowledge the political and economic realities which have prevented the world from meeting various climate commitments. The IEA is correct to note that climate change has slowed down in recent years due to the shock of energy prices that came after Russia's invasion in Ukraine in 2022. Energy security has become the focus of attention, as opposed to energy transition. After President Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Paris Climate Accord on the first day his second term, the United States dealt a severe blow to energy transition efforts. Since then, he has rescinded many of the green policies and regulations that were prominent under his predecessor.

The energy transition remains an economic necessity. This is because the scientific consensus shows that the rising costs to prevent climate change are far greater than the costs associated with deploying cleaner technologies. The IEA's forecast will be a sobering read as world leaders and scientists gather at the COP30 Climate Summit in Belem Brazil.

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(source: Reuters)