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Southwest Airlines lowers its full-year EBIT as bookings are hit by the government shutdown
Southwest Airlines cut the forecast for its key profit metric, EBIT, in 2025 on Friday. The airline cited lower revenues due to the government shutdown that occurred recently and the impact of higher fuel prices. The company now expects to earn about $500 million in earnings for the full year before interest and tax, as opposed to its previous estimate of $600 to $800 millions. In premarket trading, shares of the company fell 2.3%. The longest government shutdown in U.S. History, 43 days, caused flight disruptions across the country, forcing thousands to work without pay. Flight reductions were ordered by the Federal Aviation Administration at 40 major airports due to staffing shortages. Some Wall Street analysts have cut their fourth-quarter profit forecasts for U.S. Airlines by as much as 30% due to the combined impact of both the shutdown and winter weather. Delta Air Lines announced earlier this week that it expected to take a $200 million hit to its fourth quarter pre-tax profits due to the shutdown. Reporting by Abhinav Paramar in Bengaluru
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Analyst: Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports have reduced grain imports.
Analyst Barva Invest stated on Friday that the constant Russian attacks have caused Ukraine's export terminals to reduce grain intake. This has a negative impact on trading. Ukraine is a major corn exporter in the world. It relies on Black Sea Ports near Odesa for 90% of its agricultural products, which are targeted by Russian drones and missiles almost every day. Some ports and terminals have limited the acceptance of goods due to Russian shelling. This has further slowed down the trading activity in the Ukrainian corn markets, which were already struggling with complicated logistics and a lack of supply," Barva Invest stated on Telegram. The Ukrainian economy ministry announced on Friday that the country's corn exports for the season 2025/26 had fallen to 3,99 million metric tons by December 5, compared with 7,6 million tons at the same time last year. UAC, the largest Ukrainian farmer's union, has reported a low rate of corn exports. This is attributed to the slow harvesting as well as the need to dry grain before shipping. Analysts reported this week that farmers harvested corn on 78% of their planted area by December 4 compared to 95% at this time last. Farmers have also complained that there are not enough locomotives to export grain from the central Ukrainian regions. This has led to an increase in the amount of time required to transport grain to the ports.
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Sources say that Poste Italiane is considering selling broadband units as a way to maintain its grip on TIM.
Poste Italiane has been weighing up options for keeping a large stake in Telecom Italia, including the possibility of selling its broadband division to the former phone monopoly, in exchange for stock, according to three sources with knowledge. Poste (which runs parcel, mail, payments, energy, and broadband services) is a state-backed company that operates TIM. It bought stock from France's Vivendi and the French state lender CDP. This stake is below the 25% threshold required to trigger a takeover. One person said that Poste doesn't plan to takeover, but it wants to remain near the new threshold of 30% for buyouts the government will introduce as part of a reform to the financial code. Three people declined to give their names as the information was not public. They said that Poste could sell its PosteMobile division to TIM. Poste would receive TIM ordinary shares in return. Sources said that extra shares could help offset a possible conversion of TIM’s savings shares to ordinary shares, which would reduce Poste’s current stake by about 17%. Sources added that no decision had been made regarding a deal or a timing. Poste and TIM declined comment. Analysts at Intermonte estimate that PosteMobile's deal with TIM to use its mobile network from next year onwards could be worth 900 million euro ($1.1 billion) and serve about five million subscribers. According to LSEG, another option being considered is the purchase of Vivendi’s remaining 2,5% stake. This would be worth around 200 million euros at present prices. Vivendi declined to comment.
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Sources: Russia will increase oil exports to western ports by 27% in December after a November slump.
Sources say and calculations show that Russia will increase oil exports from its western ports and transit by 27% from November due to excess crude storage and large rollover volume from last month because of bad weather and drone strikes. Estimates suggest that shipments of Urals and Siberian Light grades through Primorsk and Novorossiisk, as well as Ust-Luga, could increase to 2.44 million barrels a day (bpd), up from the 1.92 million bpd in November. The loading of crude oil from Novorossiisk (including Urals, KEBCO, and Siberian Light grades) is expected to reach multi-month peaks of around 0.9m bpd. Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and other ports will combine to load about 1.6m bpd for Urals and KEBCO. Industry sources say that November's exports from Russia’s western ports fell far short of the planned 2.3 million barrels per day. Some of last month's cargoes are now being loaded on tankers early in December. Novorossiisk has handled 0.7 million tons of crude oil from the lifting plan for November in December. Around 2.4 million barrels per day were exported and transported from Russia's western port in October, including some volumes that had been carried over from the previous month. The Russian Black Sea port Novorossiisk temporarily halted oil exports following a Ukrainian drone and missile attack on the terminal at Sheskharis on November 14. On November 24, a drone strike disrupted oil flows out of Novorossiisk, and from the CPC terminal. Sources claim that Russia's western port operated at near capacity in September, and October. In October, Novorossiisk's throughput reached 0.85 million barrels per day (bpd), including rollover volume from September. Kirsten Donovan (Reporting and Editing)
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The business empire of the incoming Czech PM Babis includes everything from chickens to fertility clinics
Andrej Babis, a Czech billionaire, will be appointed prime minister by Petr Pavel on December 9 after his populist ANO won an election in October. Petr Pavel announced that he would name Babis as prime minister after the billionaire cleared up any conflict of interest concerns by agreeing for his Agrofert group to be transferred to an independent trust. BABIS HOLDINGS Babis has a net worth of $4.3 billion according to Forbes, making him one of the 10 richest Czechs. Babis acquired a part of Agrofert in the 1990s, a trading company from communist times. Separately, he holds investments in the amount of hundreds of millions of Euros through Imoba and a fund named Hartenberg. He has not stated that he will make any changes in his control over these holdings. GOVERNMENT CONNECTIONS Babis, as prime minister and member of the EU’s top council for heads of government will decide on national and pan European regulations, taxes, and subsidies. Babis' companies have received public contracts and investment incentives, such as tax reductions, worth tens and millions of Euros, from the Czechoslovak and Hungarian government. According to their annual report for 2024, they receive payments from the European Union for land farmed and animals bred. They also received EU funding for innovative investment project. Some of the projects that Babis was in charge of during his previous term from 2017-2021 are either halted or subject to legal and administration battles. Babis, when he was previously prime minister, transferred his assets into trust funds that courts and the European Commission later found to be inadequate. He said the new system is more strict, and goes beyond legal requirements. Agrofert Agrofert is an association of around 230 businesses in central Europe, including agriculture, food processing and distribution, fertilizers, plastics fuels, forestry, and other industries. The largest companies are located in Germany, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. The group had a revenue of 212 billion crowns (10.2 billion dollars) in 2024, and a net attributable income of 7 billion crowns. This was up from 2.1 billion crowns in 2023. One-off profits from the sale the group's chemicals and media business helped to boost the profit. In 2024, the EU will provide 1.7 billion crowns of subsidies to support farm production. PLASTICS, ADBLUE, PLASTILISERS It is an important European manufacturer of the urea-based AdBlue diesel engine additive, as well ammonia and fertilisers. SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz is one of the major players in this sector. Other companies include GreenChem and Duslo. Recent acquisitions included the 810 million-euro takeover in 2023 of Austrian energy company Borealis' nitrogen division and the purchase of Rotterdam port terminal OCI Ammonia Holding last month for 290 millions euros. WHEAT, BREAD MEAT AND EGGS It is the owner of major poultry and beef processing companies, as well as bakeries and milk processing companies in central Europe. In Czech supermarkets, Agrofert products are everywhere. It has farms covering more than 140.000 hectares. It is also a major breeder of poultry, pigs and cattle, and it has interests in forestry and wood. Other Assets Hartenberg Capital is owned by Jozef J. Janov, a professional investor who is also the leader and minority owner. Hartenberg Capital's investments include: According to the website of this company, 60 clinics have been operating in 16 European nations and have delivered 166,956 children. This includes hospitals that provide other services. Enterstore is an e-commerce company that includes brands like Astratex, Miss Mary, and real estate projects. IMOBA is the owner of several restaurants as well as Capi Hnizdo, a conference and entertainment center near Prague. Babis is facing a court case over a fraudulently claimed 2 million euro EU subsidy for the construction of the project. Babis returned the money and denies wrongdoing. Babis was acquitted in the case by an appeals court, which ordered a new trial. Babis can avoid this retrial if his allies vote to keep his immunity. $1 = 20.7350 Czech crowns (Reporting and editing by Alex Richardson).
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Sources: Discounts on Russian ESPO blend crude oils to China are increasing
Four sources reported on Friday that the ESPO blend crude cargoes from Russia, which loaded in Chinese ports in December, were sold at a discount between $5 and $6 per barrel compared to ICE Brent, marking the lowest differential in history. Discounts in China have widened due to a drop in demand, after state refiners stopped buying as a result of recent Western sanctions. Private players are also more cautious. Traders said that ESPO blend oil cargoes were being sold at discounts between $0.50 and $1 per barrel under ICE Brent, as recently as October. In October, the United States imposed sanctions against Russian oil suppliers Lukoil, and Rosneft, resulting in a drop in demand, even from India and China, two of its largest buyers. Traders reported that some ESPO blend cargoes loaded in December had yet to be positioned.
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Sources say that Amazon paid 180 million Euros to Italy to end the tax and labour probe
Sources with knowledge of this matter confirmed on Friday that an Italian unit of the e-commerce giant Amazon had paid compensation to delivery staff and removed a monitoring system, putting an end to a probe of alleged tax fraud, and illegal labor practices. In July 2024, the logistics services unit of the group was accused by the authorities of circumventing tax and labour laws. It relied on limited liability companies or cooperatives to supply it with workers. The unit also avoided VAT tax, and reduced social security payments. Milan's prosecutors confiscated 121 million Euros from the unit at the time. The group, which has paid the Italian tax agency around 180 million Euros ($210 million), joins more than 30 companies that have settled similar investigations in the last two years. According to a document seen by the. Amazon released a statement saying, "We have clarified with the authorities our position and they have acknowledged the high standards that our collaboration model has with our delivery partners." The company said that "our engagement with Italian institutions, and other stakeholders, has improved compliance throughout the industry." Milan's prosecutor's office has conducted investigations into the hiring practices of several large companies, including Italian DHL, FedEx, UPS and Italian supermarket chain Esselunga. Il Sole 24 Ore was the first to report on Amazon's settlement. (1 dollar = 0.8579 euro) (Reporting and writing by Emilio Parodi; editing by Alvise Armilini, Elaine Hardcastle).
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Airbus confirms November deliveries dip after industrial glitch
Airbus said that it delivered 72 planes to bring the total number of planes this year up to 657. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury cited the figure as a sign of a poor November following an industrial glitch. The world's biggest planemaker will have to deliver a record-breaking 133 planes to reach a revised 790 goal for 2025. The November tally is down from 78 the month before and 84 last November, according to a report released this week. The company's lower delivery data comes after a difficult week, in which it announced that there was a quality problem with some metal fuselage panels in its most popular A320 family jets. This came just days after an unexpected recall to fix a bug in a computer. The planemaker reduced its commercial deliveries for the full year by 4%, to "around 790", down from 820. However, it maintained its financial targets. Airbus previously stated that it takes "around" as a 20 aircraft margin of error. Airbus said Friday it had also booked 75 new orders for November. This brings the total of this year's orders to 797 or a net 700, after cancellations. Airbus remains ahead of Boeing in deliveries, even after the fuselage issue linked to a Spanish manufacturer, as Boeing recovers from a long-running crisis. However, Airbus is behind on new orders. Boeing reported net orders of 782 for the period January-October, which is the most recent data available. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman.)
Asia spot prices fall to a new two-month low due to mild weather
The Asian spot prices of liquefied gas have fallen to their lowest levels in the last two months due to high inventories, mild weather and low demand.
Average LNG price for delivery to North-east Asia in January
Klaas Dzeman, a market analyst with Brainchild Commodity Intelligence, said that "Asian Prices are on a slightly downtrend, as the economic demand has not surprised to the upside. China's Manufacturing PMI was disappointing at 49.2".
He said that a weaker coal demand was weighing on prices. The weather is not the coldest for this time of year, and the mainland China could remain warm through the middle of October, while the South Korean cold phase has just passed.
Dozeman said that "the relatively high shipping costs create an additional burden for Asian buyers who will need to bid higher than their European counterparts as long as the situation continues."
Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG pricing, said that spot prices have reached $10, which is the price point where buyers who are price-sensitive will consider imports.
Gas prices in Europe continued to drop on the back of forecasts for warmer and windier conditions.
S&P Global Energy's daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in January, on an ex ship (DES) basis, was $8.787/mmBtu as of December 4. This represents a $0.45/mmBtu reduction from the price at TTF hub.
Argus estimated the price to be $8.830/mmBtu while Spark Commodities put it at $8.827/mmBtu.
Seb Kennedy, an independent gas analyst, reported that investment funds increased their net short positions in TTF futures as a result of the robust LNG supply to Northwest Europe, which offset concerns about EU gas storage depletion.
Senior, Argus' Senior, said that Egypt and Turkey continue to be the main sources of demand for goods in the Atlantic basin. As a result, buyers in northwestern Europe had to increase their bids in order to remain competitive.
The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub gas price spiked to its highest level in the last three years this week at over $5/mmBtu. This was due to a combination between cold weather in the Northeast of the U.S. and an increase in demand for feedstock from LNG plants.
The spread between Henry Hub prices and TTF has decreased to its lowest level since April 20,21.
Some long-term U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas contract costs are now higher than U.S. FOB prices. The stronger spot charter rates also decreased profits for U.S. Gulf of Mexico off-takers. "We are not yet at the point that any U.S. Cargo Turndown would be considered," Senior stated.
According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan, the U.S. arbitrage for the front-month to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope points marginally towards Europe while the arbitrage through the Panama Canal strongly points to Asia.
Afghan said that the global LNG freight rate in the Atlantic has dropped for the first since October, to $130,000/day. The Pacific rates are also down, at $87.500/day.
(source: Reuters)