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Bousso: Europe's weak energy spot is re-emerging in Greenland dispute

The U.S.-Europe trade war over President Donald Trump’s attempt to purchase Greenland has left the EU vulnerable, due to its reliance on one supplier for all of its energy needs.

In less than four years, Europe's economic situation was severely affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The nations were forced to find alternative sources of gas to replace the Russian natural resources they had been relying on for decades. This scramble caused a "severe" supply shock, and the European gas price quadrupled in the first six month of the conflict. Europe solved this problem by swapping one dependence for another. After the Russian share of EU gas imports dropped to 12% in 2012, from 45% prior to the invasion, Europe quickly turned to U.S. LNG. According to Kpler, the imports of U.S. LNG soared from 18 million metric ton in 2021, to 65 million ton last year. This represents 57% of all LNG that will be imported by Europe and Britain by 2025. The U.S. currently supplies almost a quarter (25%) of all gas imported by the EU. In addition, the U.S. and EU trade agreement signed last August stipulated that Brussels would buy $250 billion worth of energy from the U.S. in the period 2026-2028. This figure dwarfs the $75 billion it spent on energy last year. Now, fast forward to this week. European leaders are faced with the uncomfortable truth that their lopsided relationship in energy has made the region vulnerable. Trump may try to use Europe's dependency on energy as a bargaining tool in the escalating battle over Greenland.

STRATEGIC LIABILITY

Trump threatened on Saturday to impose an import tax of 10% on goods from several European countries who have been opposed to his plan to take over Greenland. The EU ambassadors met quickly the next day to discuss possible responses. The EU could impose tariffs on imports from the United States worth 93 billion euro ($107.7billion) or use its "Anti-Coercion Instrument", which is still untested. This instrument could be used to restrict services, reduce access for public tenders and investments, and limit financial systems. France has said that it would be in favor of suspending the trade agreement if the spat escalated.

These threats, which are essentially a retaliation for the other's tit-fortat actions, could spark a new economic war between two major global powers.

It is too early to tell how this conflict will unfold, but two things are certain. The showdown is a low in the transatlantic relations between NATO allies who have shared economic and security concerns for decades. Second, Europe's strategy on energy remains a liability for national security.

LESSONS NOT LEARNED European Leaders do recognize this vulnerability and are attempting a longer-term solution. Several governments are rethinking their stance on exploitation of domestic oil and natural gas reserves. There are many reasons to not panic in the near future. Even with the increasing tensions between Washington, Brussels and the EU, the U.S. LNG supplies to the EU are far more secure than they were before. U.S. gas supplies are supported by long-term contracts among a variety of companies, which are governed under international trade rules. Russian gas was primarily delivered through the Kremlin controlled?Gazprom.

The heavy dependence on Europe is a problem in both directions. Last year, the U.S. exported around half its LNG to Europe. The U.S. has seen a meteoric rise in the past few years and is now the top producer of the super-chilled fuel. A disruption of exports to Europe will have a tangible impact on LNG producers, gas drillers and the Trump administration. Energy as a weapon of political warfare has always been high-risk, and tends to drive buyers towards alternative suppliers. Gazprom's profits have been shrinking since 2022, as European customers moved away. This does not mean that Europe can relax. Under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, the U.S. President has the power to restrict the export of energy and goods for reasons of national security. Trump declared a "national emergency" when he returned to the White House in January last year, giving him additional powers.

The long-standing alliance that exists between Europe and Washington may allow the icy relations to ease. Europe's reliance on U.S. natural gas will continue to be a strategic weakness if and when the next dispute arises with the White House.

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(source: Reuters)