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Commodity markets and China's new five-year plan

China's annual parliamentary session, which begins on Thursday, will see the unveiling of its five-year plan, which outlines Beijing's economic ambitions and sectors that are slated for funding and policy assistance.

Although specific details of implementation are rarely provided, the document is a guide to policy-making and gives an indication of how the world’s largest consumer will steer its economy.

What to look for when buying commodities

CLIMATE AND POWER

Climate activists hope that the plan will tighten controls on China's total carbon emissions. Beijing has promised to reach a peak in 2030, but without specifying what level.

Analysts say that the massive rollout of renewable energy will continue. However, they are focusing on transmission lines and green consumption targets in order to integrate energy better into the grid, and to stop energy curtailment.

The plan is not expected to be a strong opponent of coal-fired power generation. In fact, the shortage of electricity in 2021 will likely lead to record building under the current plan.

In a research report, MERICS analyst Johanna Krebs said that Beijing may not be willing to pay the political price of destroying an entire industry at a time when a 'large part' of China is financially struggling.

The level of investment in alternative fuels such as green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel, that China continues to make despite the pullbacks elsewhere, is also a focus.

OIL AND GAS

After a seven-year effort to reverse the decline in oil production, domestic production reached a record level last year. The next five-year plans may indicate how Beijing intends to react as output is set to reach a new peak soon.

Beijing will also be able to gauge how it feels about the upcoming peak in oil consumption. In December, the National Energy Administration stated that China should 'push for a peak' in its upcoming five-year plan.

Researchers at Sinopec's and CNPC's think tanks predict that natural gas will continue to be a top priority. They expect a growth rate of 5% per year on average over the next five-year plan.

CRITICAL MINERALS

China used its control of rare earths to negotiate a truce in the trade war with the U.S. Rare earths are mentioned only once in the current five-year plan. However, as Washington and its allies move to build alternative supply chain, keep an eye out for China's reaction.

The focus will also be on domestic production and stockpiling. China announced a new push for both in proposals released last October. In February there was a rare announcement that copper would be studied as a system of commercial stockpiling.

It is possible that China will also implement new policies in relation to the huge scrap market. In late 2024, the country may create a state-backed group for the purpose of consolidating the sector.

Overcapacity

This year's "fanneijuan" or anti-involution plan will help officials tackle overcapacity in industries from pork to steel.

Look for stricter rules regarding new or replacement capacities in 'China's giant industry of steel. This could include tying production with carbon emissions.

Over the last year, there has been talk about copper smelters?and refiners as well. Watch for signs that policymakers are planning to do more.

FOOD SECURITY

China is a country with many mouths to satisfy, but an agricultural sector that lacks the technological sophistication and scale of the United States or Brazil. Even Pay, director of policy research group Trivium China, says that more efforts will be made to change this.

A special focus will be on the future of genetically modified crops. Despite being discussed for years in China, GM crops haven't been widely adopted due to high prices and consumer and farmer resistance.

Analysts are also watching for signs of initiatives that will help China reduce its vulnerability to imported grains and soybeans, either by reducing the use of these grains in animal feeds or diversifying their import sources. Reporting by Lewis Jackson in Beijing, Amy Lv in Shanghai, Sam Li in Beijing, Daphne Zhang in Beijing, and Colleen Waye in Beijing; editing by Sonali Paul.

(source: Reuters)