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Floods in Angola suspend trains through the Lobito critical minerals corridor
The railway that runs through the Lobito corridor in Angola, which is a critical?source for minerals such as copper and 'cobalt, was forced to suspend operations on Sunday due to flooding caused by nearby rivers. Heavy rains have flooded bridges across the Halo River between Cubal Station and Caimbambo Station, as well as a bridge crossing the Cavaco river near Benguela. In a press release, it stated that "as a consequence, rail traffic is suspended indefinitely" on the affected sections. Angola granted the Lobito Atlantic Rail - a consortium consisting of Trafigura Mota-Engil Vecturis SA, a 30-year-long concession to operate and provide a fast route for copper and coal exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo to the Lobito port on the 'Atlantic coast. Trains also transport agricultural products and industrial goods from the port in a?opposite directions to DRC mines. Climate change is worsening floods in southern Africa, causing frequent disruptions to transport. (Reporting and writing by Miguel Gomez, Tim Cocks, Christina Fincher).
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Trump: US will block the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible
Donald Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will 'immediately begin blockading?the?Strait of Hormuz?and interdict any vessel in international waterways which has paid a toll for Iran. Trump's remarks were made in a Truth Social post, hours after U.S.-.Iran talks ended without a deal. Trump said that the meeting went "well," adding that the two sides were not in agreement on Iran's nuclear program. "Effectively immediately, the United States Navy will begin the BLOCKADING of any and all ships trying to enter or leave the 'Strait of Hormuz,'" said Trump. He is opposed to the idea of Iran charging a toll for ships to pass through the strait. "I also ordered our Navy to search for and intercept any vessel in international waters that has paid tolls to 'Iran. He said that anyone who pays an illegal toll on the high seas will not be allowed safe passage.
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China offers incentives for Taiwan after opposition leader's visit
China announced 10 new incentives for Taiwan on Sunday, including easing tourist restrictions, allowing "healthy" TV dramas and facilitating the sale of food, after a visit from the island's opposition leader. Cheng Li-wun (chairwoman of Taiwan's largest political opposition party, the Kuomintang) made this decision at the end of a visit to China. She spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the importance of peace and reconciliation. The official Xinhua News Agency announced 10 measures that "explore" a number of issues, including the resumption of flights between China and Taiwan, and the permission to individuals from Shanghai or Fujian Province to visit Taiwan. Xinhua reported that a mechanism would be created to reduce the inspection standards of food and fishery items, but it must be based on a political platform "opposing Taiwan's independence". Taiwanese TV dramas, documentaries, and animations will be allowed to air, as long as "they have a correct orientation, healthy contents, and high-quality production," the statement added. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (which is responsible for the island's China Policy) said in a recent statement that Beijing's "unilateral" concessions are merely poison pills disguised as "generous gifts packages." It said that the Taiwanese Government supports healthy and orderly exchanges across the Strait, but these should not be dependent on political objectives or preconditions. The?KMT issued a statement in which it welcomed China's declaration, calling it a "gift" for the people of Taiwan. China has refused to speak with Taiwan President Lai Ching Te, claiming that he is a separatist. He rejects Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over the democratically-governed island. China and Taiwan blame each other for the lack of Chinese tourism on the island following the COVID-19 pandemic. Taiwan has also complained before about Chinese restrictions on the import of certain agricultural and aquatic products. Taiwan claims that China uses unjustified excuses in some cases to prevent the spread of pests.
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Saudi Arabia restores capacity to the East-West oil pipeline at 7 million barrels per day after the attacks
Saudi Arabia said that it had restored the full capacity of the East-West oil pipeline to about seven million barrels per day. This was after assessing the damage caused by the attacks on the energy sector during the Iran conflict. According to the ministry, the energy facilities and pipelines that were damaged during the conflict are now operational again. Saudi Arabia did not say who was behind the attack, but it has intercepted Iranian missiles and drones many times in recent weeks. The strikes also disrupted key oil, gas and refining sites, as well as petrochemical, electricity and petrochemical sites, in Riyadh and the Eastern Province. RESTORE OUTPUT TO CONTINUE SUPPLY Saudi Arabia said that the attacks on Thursday had reduced its oil production by approximately 600,000 barrels a day, and its East-West Pipeline throughput by about 700,000. Saudi Arabia has only one crude export route, the East-West Pipeline, due to the closure of Strait of Hormuz. Reports on Wednesday claimed that Iran had attacked the 'pipeline just hours following the ceasefire. The ministry said it had'recovered affected volumes' from the Manifa field, where production had been reduced previously by approximately?300,000. The ministry said that work was underway to restore the full output at the Khurais plant after attacks on it reduced Saudi Arabia's capacity by a further?300,000 bpd. The company said that a quick recovery would improve the "reliability and consistency of supplies for local and global markets." Reporting by Menna Alaa Al-Din, Muhammad Al Gebaly and Bernadette B. Baum
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China offers incentives for Taiwan after opposition leader's visit
China announced 10 new incentives measures for Taiwan on Sunday, including relaxing tourist restrictions, allowing "healthy" TV dramas and facilitating the sale of food. This follows a visit by Taiwan's opposition leader. Cheng Li-wun (chairwoman of Taiwan's biggest opposition party, the Kuomintang KMT) made the decision at the end of a visit to China. She spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the importance of peace and reconciliation. The 10'measures', announced by the official Xinhua News Agency, "explore" establishing a'regular communication system between the KMT, and China’s Communist Party. They also include the full resumption of flights between both sides, and allowing individuals from Shanghai, and Fujian Province, to visit Taiwan. Xinhua reported that a mechanism would be created to reduce the?inspection standard for food and _fishery products. However, this must be based on the political basis of "opposing Taiwan's independence". Taiwanese dramas, documentaries, and animations will be permitted to be shown, as long as they are "correctly oriented, have healthy content, and are of high production quality," it added. Taiwan's government did not immediately respond. China has refused to speak to Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te because it believes he is "separatist." He rejects Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over the democratically-governed island. China and Taiwan blamed eachother for the failure of a large-scale Chinese tourism on the island after the end of the COVID-19 epidemic. Taiwan complained before about Chinese restrictions?on the imports of certain agricultural and aquatic products. It claimed that China had in some cases used unjustified reasons to stop the spreading of pests and disease.
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Israel reprimands Spain for blowing up an effigy of Netanyahu
Israel announced on Saturday that it had reprimanded Spain’s most senior diplomat in Tel Aviv for the explosion of a giant effigy?of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week in a Spanish town. Maria Dolores Narvaez, the mayor of El Burgo in southern Spain, told local TV that the seven-metre-high (23-foot-high)?figure had been packed with?14 kg (31 lb) gunpowder during a ceremony held for decades on April 5. Israel's Foreign Ministry stated in a press release on X that highlighted a video, "The appalling hatred of Jews on display is the direct result from Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Government's systematic incitement." I was not able to confirm the video immediately. "The Spanish government is committed to combating antisemitism, hate and discrimination in any form. We reject any 'insidious allegations' that suggest the opposite, a Spanish Foreign Ministry?source said. El Burgo Mayor Narvaez stated that the town had previously used effigies for U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin at the annual event. Spain has always been a vocal critic of U.S. military operations in Iran and Lebanon. This is despite U.S. warnings to punish non-cooperative NATO members. Spain and Israel have been involved in a long-running dispute that began with the Gaza War. Gideon Sa'ar, Israeli Foreign Minister said that a Spanish ban on aircraft or ships transporting weapons to Israel through its?ports and?airspace was antisemitic. Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares has accused Israel of breaking international law and the two-week truce after a wave of airstrikes across Lebanon this week. Netanyahu claimed on Wednesday that Lebanon is not a part of the ceasefire, and Israel's military continues to attack Hezbollah with force. Sanchez, who is a prominent opponent of the Iran War, has shut down Spanish airspace for any aircraft that may be involved in an encounter he describes as reckless and illegal. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Reporting by Graham Keeley)
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The pilots' union has called for strikes on April 13 and 14.
?Union VC called on 'pilots 'at Lufthansa on a saturday to strike for two days starting on Monday over a pension dispute, saying the company has failed to make an acceptable offer. The union has asked pilots at Lufthansa CityLine, Lufthansa CityCargo, and Lufthansa Cargo to strike between April 13, 0001 CET (2221 GMT) and April 14, 2359 GMT (2159 GMT), the union stated. The ban excludes flights to the following Middle East countries: Azerbaijan (Azerbaijan), Egypt (Bahrain), Iraq, Israel (Israel), Jordan (Jordan), Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman and Saudi Arabia. The union has also asked pilots at Lufthansa's subsidiary Eurowings to go on strike from 0001 to 2359 CET on the 13th of April. The Cockpit 'union felt compelled to make this move after the employers showed no real willingness -to reach a resolution in several collective bargaining Disputes, said VC President Andreas Pinheiro. "Despite our deliberate choice not to strike over Easter holidays, no serious offer has been made." Lufthansa stated in a press release that VC's announcement was a "completely a new escalation" and questioned the union's demands to "double a company pension plan which is already excellent and above average". Reporting by Christoph Steitz, Ilona Knowebach. Jane Merriman edited the article.
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India increases export duties on aviation turbine fuel, diesel
India has raised its windfall 'tax' on the export of diesel and aviation turbine fuel, which it had imposed last week to ensure an adequate supply at home. India's Finance Ministry increased taxes on diesel exports to 55.5 rupees/litre from just 21.5 rupees/litre. The tax on aviation turbine fuel exports was also raised from 29.5 rupees/litre to 42 rupees/litre. India cut the excise tax on petrol and diesel last month by 10 rupees ($0.11). To control the rise in airfares it also set a limit of 25% on domestic airline fuel prices. Jet fuel can account for up to 40% of airline expenses. The global oil price has risen to $100 per barrel as the U.S. - Iran war continues to restrict the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. This is the conduit that carries 40% of India's crude?oil?imports. India is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, and it relies heavily upon foreign supplies. (Reporting and writing by Nikunj Ahri; editing by Jan Harvey).
Bousso: The bet of the oil markets on a short Iran shock will soon be tested.
Investors bet on the short-term disruption of oil supplies in the Middle East. This optimism, however, may not be justified. The oilfields in the Gulf have escaped damage so far, but the inability to ship fuel out is straining the global energy system. Each day of disruption increases pressure on both?producers?and?consumers?, causing bottlenecks in the Middle East for exporters?and?deepening shortages elsewhere for buyers? The oil prices rose by more than 10% on Monday, reaching the highest level in over a decade. They then fell back to $79. This was a reaction to the extensive U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran that took place over the weekend. These strikes killed the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and provoked retaliatory attacks against Israel and Gulf States, plunging this region into the gravest crisis it has experienced in decades. The oil industry was hit hard by the fallout. After at least three vessels had been struck, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway that connects Iran and Oman - which carries 20% of the world's oil supplies - has all but ceased.
Although the strait is not officially closed, on Monday, 150 ships were stuck nearby as their operators avoided entering into the Gulf for fear of further attacks, or being trapped. Iran has also attacked ports and energy infrastructure in the region. Saudi Aramco on Monday shut its largest domestic refinery, the 550,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Ras Tanura plant, after a drone strike. Qatar, the second largest producer of natural gas liquefied in the world, has halted production at its massive Ras Laffan plant following drone attacks. The news caused European benchmark gas to surge by up to 50%. The global oil market will likely be able to absorb this disruption if it lasts for only a few short days. Global oil supply is abundant due to increased production around the globe. Several major consumers such as China and the U.S. could use strategic reserves to temper price spikes and cushion shortages.
If the conflict continues, the backlog of work could be overwhelming.
The clock is ticking. Around 15 million barrels per day of crude oil and over 4 million barrels per day of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel leave the Middle East via the Strait. If the war doesn't end soon, producers may be forced to divert oil into onshore storage when tankers are full. The region does have extensive storage facilities but they are only able to accommodate a few days worth of normal exports in the event that flows remain blocked.
According to Augustin Prate, an analyst at Kayrros, Saudi Arabia has around 82 millions barrels of crude in onshore storage. This represents 56% of the country's capacity. The remaining storage space could be filled in 10 days if production and exports are both at around 7 million barrels per day. According to Prate, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have respectively 34 million and 28 millions barrels of storage. This is equivalent to more than 40% in both cases.
Saudi Arabia could ease pressure by diverting its exports via a pipeline to the Red Sea Port of Yanbu, which can transport around 5 million barrels per day.
The UAE has also built a pipeline that connects it to Fujairah, a storage terminal beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Both pipelines are already in use. Their capacity to transport 'extra oil' is therefore likely limited. The key unknown is the duration of the conflict. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on the weekend that military activities could last for at least four weeks. The Republican President, who has promised to combat the high cost living at home, is likely to deploy all available tools - including U.S. Navy to secure shipping lanes and keep oil prices down.
This effort is not guaranteed to be successful. Even if there are formal assurances in place, insurers and shipowners will likely remain cautious. They may limit flows even with naval escorts.
Long considered the worst-case scenario for the energy industry, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now a reality. The more the Strait of Hormuz remains "clogged", the greater the pressure on Middle East producers who may be forced to reduce output as the storage capacity fills.
This would then transform what the markets currently treat as a temporary event into a much more lasting challenge for global oil systems.
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(source: Reuters)