Latest News

Bousso: The bet of the oil markets on a short Iran shock will soon be tested.

Investors bet on the short-term disruption of oil supplies in the Middle East. This optimism, however, may not be justified. The oilfields in the Gulf have escaped damage so far, but the inability to ship fuel out is straining the global energy system. Each day of disruption increases pressure on both?producers?and?consumers?, causing bottlenecks in the Middle East for exporters?and?deepening shortages elsewhere for buyers? The oil prices rose by more than 10% on Monday, reaching the highest level in over a decade. They then fell back to $79. This was a reaction to the extensive U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran that took place over the weekend. These strikes killed the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and provoked retaliatory attacks against Israel and Gulf States, plunging this region into the gravest crisis it has experienced in decades. The oil industry was hit hard by the fallout. After at least three vessels had been struck, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway that connects Iran and Oman - which carries 20% of the world's oil supplies - has all but ceased.

Although the strait is not officially closed, on Monday, 150 ships were stuck nearby as their operators avoided entering into the Gulf for fear of further attacks, or being trapped. Iran has also attacked ports and energy infrastructure in the region. Saudi Aramco on Monday shut its largest domestic refinery, the 550,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Ras Tanura plant, after a drone strike. Qatar, the second largest producer of natural gas liquefied in the world, has halted production at its massive Ras Laffan plant following drone attacks. The news caused European benchmark gas to surge by up to 50%. The global oil market will likely be able to absorb this disruption if it lasts for only a few short days. Global oil supply is abundant due to increased production around the globe. Several major consumers such as China and the U.S. could use strategic reserves to temper price spikes and cushion shortages.

If the conflict continues, the backlog of work could be overwhelming.

The clock is ticking. Around 15 million barrels per day of crude oil and over 4 million barrels per day of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel leave the Middle East via the Strait. If the war doesn't end soon, producers may be forced to divert oil into onshore storage when tankers are full. The region does have extensive storage facilities but they are only able to accommodate a few days worth of normal exports in the event that flows remain blocked.

According to Augustin Prate, an analyst at Kayrros, Saudi Arabia has around 82 millions barrels of crude in onshore storage. This represents 56% of the country's capacity. The remaining storage space could be filled in 10 days if production and exports are both at around 7 million barrels per day. According to Prate, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have respectively 34 million and 28 millions barrels of storage. This is equivalent to more than 40% in both cases.

Saudi Arabia could ease pressure by diverting its exports via a pipeline to the Red Sea Port of Yanbu, which can transport around 5 million barrels per day.

The UAE has also built a pipeline that connects it to Fujairah, a storage terminal beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

Both pipelines are already in use. Their capacity to transport 'extra oil' is therefore likely limited. The key unknown is the duration of the conflict. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on the weekend that military activities could last for at least four weeks. The Republican President, who has promised to combat the high cost living at home, is likely to deploy all available tools - including U.S. Navy to secure shipping lanes and keep oil prices down.

This effort is not guaranteed to be successful. Even if there are formal assurances in place, insurers and shipowners will likely remain cautious. They may limit flows even with naval escorts.

Long considered the worst-case scenario for the energy industry, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now a reality. The more the Strait of Hormuz remains "clogged", the greater the pressure on Middle East producers who may be forced to reduce output as the storage capacity fills.

This would then transform what the markets currently treat as a temporary event into a much more lasting challenge for global oil systems.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)