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Maguire: Europe's gas storage is under scrutiny after Qatar stops LNG flow

After Qatar, the world's third largest LNG producer, halted its LNG exports to Europe, the historically low gas inventories in Europe could become a major liability.

Gas storage operators in Europe have been prompted to reduce their stockpiles this winter due to a combination of high natural gas prices and winter temperatures above normal, as well as new storage rules.

The prospect of record exports of LNG from countries like the United States and Qatar also raised expectations that the international gas market would be brimming over with gas in 2026. After drone attacks by Iran this weekend on Qatar's main LNG facility, the narrative of LNG abundance is now being replaced with expectations of shipping delays and sharply increased prices.

Price Panic

On Monday, benchmark wholesale natural gas prices in Europe increased by more than 30% compared to last week's end as market participants scrambled for ways to reflect the impact of Qatar's loss of supply.

According to Kpler's analysis, Europe will only receive?7% LNG from Qatar by 2025. However, any prolonged Qatar LNG shutdown would likely have a knock-on effect on all LNG trade, particularly to the world's largest buyers in Asia.

Qatar was the fourth largest LNG purchaser in India, and China's number one LNG buyer by 2025.

China, India and South Korea are likely to increase their order interest to other vendors to plug any possible shortfalls resulting from the Qatar shut downs. This will lead to a tighter supply of LNG to all destinations.

EUROPE'S FEATURE

Although the exact timeline for Qatar's outages is still unclear, gas storage and consumers across Europe need to quickly decide what they can do to avoid further gas depletion. They also must be careful not get caught in a panic buying spree that could drive global LNG prices higher.

Gas inventories are already at record lows or multi-year lows. Many of Europe's largest gas consumers will be forced to increase their gas purchases even if prices continue to rise.

LSEG data shows that natural gas inventories started March in Germany – Europe's biggest gas consumer – at just 27% capacity. This compares to an average 64% capacity since 2023 for this time of the year.

Gas stocks?in The Netherlands, home to Europe's largest gas trading hub, are around 10% capacity compared to 48% on average in early March.

Italy, Europe's 2nd largest gas consumer, has inventories of gas at about 50% capacity. This is better than many northern counterparts but still lower than the average of 60% in early March.

Gas stocks in Europe are around 30% full, compared to 54% for early March.

This means that almost all of the major gas consumers are being pushed to replenish their stocks, despite the?increased global competition and the already rising prices.

The author is a columnist at.

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(source: Reuters)