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Bousso: Europe's weak energy spot is re-emerging in Greenland dispute

The U.S.-Europe trade war over President Donald Trump’s bid to purchase Greenland has left the EU vulnerable because it is heavily dependent on one supplier for all its energy needs.

In less than four years, Europe's economic situation was severely impacted by the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Nations were forced to find alternative sources to the Russian natural gas that they had been relying on for decades. This scramble caused a major supply shock, and the European gas price quadrupled in the first half of the conflict. Europe solved this problem by swapping one dependence for another. After the Russian share of EU gas imports dropped to 12% in 2012, from 45% prior to the invasion, Europe quickly turned to U.S. LNG. According to Kpler, the imports of U.S. LNG soared from 18 million metric ton in 2021, to 65 million ton last year. This represents 57% of all LNG that will be imported by Europe and Britain between 2025 and 2025. The U.S. currently supplies almost a quarter (25%) of all EU gas imports. In addition, the U.S. and EU trade agreement signed last August stipulated that Brussels would buy $250 billion worth of energy from the U.S. in 2026-2028. This figure dwarfs the $75 billion it spent on energy purchases last year. Now, fast forward to this past week. European leaders are faced with the uncomfortable truth that their lopsided relationship in the energy sector has made the region vulnerable. Trump may use Europe's dependence on energy as a bargaining tool?in an escalating battle over Greenland.

STRATEGIC LIABILITY

Trump threatened on Saturday to levy a 10% tax on imports coming from several European countries who have been opposed to his plan to take over Greenland. The EU ambassadors met quickly the next day to discuss possible responses. The EU could impose tariffs on imports from the US worth 107.7 billion euros or use its "Anti-Coercion Instrument", which is still untested. This would restrict services, reduce access to investments, and limit financial systems. France said it would support the suspension of the trade agreement if the spat intensified.

The tit-fortat threats could spark a new economic war between two global powers.

It is too early to tell how this conflict will unfold, but two things are certain. The showdown is a low in the transatlantic relations between NATO allies who have shared economic and security concerns for decades. Second, Europe's strategy on energy remains a liability for national security.

LESSONS NOT LEARNED European Leaders do recognize this vulnerability and are attempting a longer-term solution. Several governments are attempting to increase the use of renewable energy and nuclear power. Others are rethinking their stance on exploitation of domestic oil and natural gas reserves. There are many reasons to not panic in the near future. To begin with, despite their size, the U.S. imports of LNG by the EU are far more secure than they were in the past, despite the rising tensions between Washington, Brussels and other countries. U.S. gas supplies are supported by a number of long-term contracts that are governed under international trade rules. Russian gas was primarily delivered through the Kremlin controlled Gazprom.

The heavy dependence on Europe is a problem in both directions. Last year, around half of U.S. exports of LNG went to Europe. The U.S. has seen a meteoric rise in the past few years and is now the top producer of super-chilled fuel. A disruption of exports to Europe will have a tangible impact on LNG producers, gas drillers and the Trump administration. Energy as a weapon of political warfare has always been considered a high-risk strategy, which tends to drive buyers towards alternative suppliers. Gazprom's profits have been shrinking since 2022, as European customers moved away. This does not mean that Europe can relax. Under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, the U.S. President has the power to limit exports of goods and energy for national security purposes. Trump declared a "national emergency" when he returned to the White House in January last year, giving him additional powers.

The long-standing alliance that exists between Europe and Washington may allow the icy relations to ease. Europe's heavy dependence on U.S. Gas will remain a significant strategic vulnerability, if or when the next dispute arises with the White House.

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(source: Reuters)