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Andy Home: Risks to Western aluminum supply increase as Iran war escalates

The Strait of Hormuz is the Gulf's main shipping chokepoint, and it is no longer just about oil?and?gas.

According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), the region is a major producer of aluminum, with over 8% global production last year.

Smelters from Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates ship over 5 million metric tonnes of metal through the Hormuz Strait every year. Bauxite, alumina and other materials are transported the opposite way in order to feed the smelters.

These plants have not yet been targeted directly in the increasing hostilities. Qatar Aluminium, owned jointly by Norsk Hydro of Norway and QatarEnergy in Qatar, is already facing closure due to the disruptions caused by the suspension of the country's natural gas production.

The greater the danger to Western manufacturers, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

Key Western Supplier

Middle East has become a major hub for aluminium production in the past two decades. The region's vast gas reserves are used to power the energy intensive smelting processes.

The Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) production has increased from 2.7 millions tons in 2010 up to 6.2 millions last year. It is now the second-largest regional supplier, outside of China.

Make that the biggest.

In the IAI's figures for Europe (the largest non-Chinese production hub in Europe on paper), there are 4 million tons of Russian metal produced annually.

Due to Ukraine sanctions, Russian aluminum cannot be imported into the U.S. The European Union has also phased out imports for the same reasons.

GCC metal producers are a key component of Western supplies of a material used in a variety of industries, from packaging to automotive and construction.

MULTIPLE CHANNELS

Multiple channels are involved in the potential impact of Western buyers.

Gulf smelters export more than just primary aluminium. The smelters are also important producers of alloys, and they feed the local clusters of semi-manufactured products plants.

According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics' official data, Bahrain exported 1 million tons of metal alloys, 500,000 tons of finished products, and 160,000 tonnes of virgin metal in the past year.

Exports were made to more than 70 countries, with significant amounts going to Europe and America.

A protracted stoppage of regional production or exports would affect multiple countries, and many parts of the processing chains.

VULNERABLE MARTENS

Aluminium is still as vulnerable to supply disruptions as it has been for years.

China's smelter industry has reached its 45 million ton capacity limit, causing both exports and output growth to slow.

The phase-outs of Russian imports and the closing of the Mozal Smelter in Mozambique have squeezed Western buyers.

London Metal Exchange's (LME) stock, which includes metal stored off-warrant, dropped by 331,000 tonnes last year. It has also fallen another 84,000 tonnes since January 1.

LME Aluminium prices were already rising before the Iran Crisis.

The news on Tuesday that Qatar Aluminium may be facing a suspension in operations, has pushed three-month metal up to $3,315 a ton. This is within striking distance from January's near-four-year-high of $3,356.

Power THREAT

Western aluminium purchasers are likely to experience a supply shock. However, it is also possible that a second one will occur in the form higher energy prices.

The closure of other smelters because of high electricity prices is one reason that GCC has become such an important part of the Western market. Mozal, a Mozambican plant that is a major European supplier, is an example.

The surge in power prices that followed the invasion of Ukraine by Russia four years ago has led to the loss of several plants across Europe.

Western aluminum producers do not need another energy shock.

The last thing Western buyers want is to lose their supply due to producers on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz.

Andy Home is a journalist. This column is a favorite of yours? Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance is available at Open Interest. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.

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(source: Reuters)