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As refiners are strained by the war, they will be turning to other products.
Fuel oil for ships and power plants will be in short supply in the third quarter, as refiners are increasingly squeezed due to wars which have disrupted crude processing and tanker transport. Despite the fact that crude oil prices have not risen dramatically in recent months due to strikes in Russia and Middle East, and restrictions on shipping traffic, the price of refined products has risen as a result. China has also reduced its refining capacity as well as exports in order to prevent burning of stocks. Shipowners and generators of power who are already struggling with disruptions due to war will face higher costs if the supply is tightened. Costlier bunker fuel could affect shipping rates. Asia is the hardest hit, as it relies most on Gulf flow disruptions caused by the Iran 'war. Singapore, the largest bunker hub in the world, imports more than half of its daily demand for nearly 1 million barrels, according to Kpler import data. Rystad, a consultancy, has a similar outlook. Energy Aspects, a consultancy, has predicted that the deficit will reach 218,000 barrels of oil per day during the third quarter. This is the first time it has projected a shortfall since the third-quarter 2025 when the figure was only 6,000 bpd. Rystad analyst Valerie Panopio said that due to the prolonged supply disruption in the Middle East we expect fuel oil to be extremely tight in the third-quarter. Fuel oil is now a refined product that struggles to meet demand. U.S. Diesel prices reached record highs Friday due to renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, as well as Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Fuel oil prices have been affected by refiners' decision to produce other products in order to increase profits. Nigeria's 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery, for example, has ramped up diesel, gasoline and jet fuel exports, while its fuel oil exports have dropped, according to Kpler. Dangote, as well as other refineries, can use fuel oil in secondary refining units for the production of other fuels. Energy Aspects analyst Royston H. Huan stated that "record-low gasoline inventories and diesel will encourage refiners to maximize secondary unit runs by using more feedstock barrels of fuel oil, thereby tightening the fuel oil balances." Gasoline stocks independently held in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub hit their lowest ?level in nearly five years on August 27. U.S. East Coast Distillate inventories (which include diesel) fell to a new record low during the week ending August 28. Price increases of 76% in Top HUB Singapore The fuel oil prices and storage levels already reflect this pressure. Stocks are some 30% ?below three-year seasonal averages in top hubs Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and Fujairah, data compiled by shows. Panopio also noted that demand is increased by ships sailing longer routes in order to avoid the key oil chokepoint - the Bab el-Mandeb strait, or to avoid the Red Sea entirely due to threats from Houthi militants. According to data from bunker pricing platform ZeroNorth, the price of very low sulphur oil, the main shipping fuel in Singapore, has increased by 76% since the Iran War began. It is now just below $825 per metric ton or $130 per barrel. This is a far greater increase than the 40% increase in Brent crude oil benchmark during the same time period. HITS TO RUSSIA AND MIDDLE-EAST OUTPUT According to data from Kpler dating back to 2017, Ukrainian drone attacks affected Russia's refinery production. Fuel oil exports hit a record-low 591,000 bpd during August, down from an average of more than 860,000 bpd by 2025. Kpler data revealed that Middle East fuel oil imports fell by 45% on average from March to August, down to 447,000 barrels a day. Kpler data revealed that the Al-Zour Refinery in Kuwait was one of the refineries in the Middle East to experience outages. This is a major fuel oil exporter and has only been able to export 26,000 barrels per day since March, as opposed with 191,000 in January-February.
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Amazon Prime Air cargo plane crashes at Miami Airport
Officials at the Miami International Airport said that an Amazon 'Prime Air' cargo flight crashed on landing after it overran its runway. This caused all taxiways and runways to be closed. Officials said Prime Air Flight 7598, which was attempting to land at Miami-Dade Airport at 2 pm EDT (1800 GMT), overran the diagonal runway and had to be disabled. Amazon and the Miami-Dade Aviation Department have confirmed that there was an incident as the plane tried to land. As of?3 pm EDT, all runways and taxiways were closed at the Miami Airport. In a post on X, U.S. Transport Secretary Sean Duffy warned travelers to "expect substantial delays and possible cancellations." National Public Radio reported that "multiple" patients were involved in the incident, citing Miami-Dade Fire Rescue. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, it was a Boeing 767-3000 that had left San Juan, Puerto Rico. A spokesperson for Amazon said that the plane was operated by cargo airline 21 Air. The cargo airline didn't immediately reply to an email seeking comment. Photos taken after the crash show the nose of the jet on the ground with the tail tilted upward. The right wing of the plane had what looked like scorch marks. Amazon spokesperson Kelly Nantel stated that the company is still gathering information about what occurred. Nantel stated in a press release that "we're working with local authorities and officials to understand what exactly happened." "Right away, our top priority is the safety, health, and care of all those involved." The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said that it would investigate the crash.
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Trump administration renews Supreme Court request to limit mail-in votes
On Sunday, the Trump administration renewed its appeal to?U.S. The Supreme Court should allow a plan to limit the number of?mail-in votes ahead of November's elections for Congress. A federal judge had blocked this plan last week. Attorneys for the Trump administration have filed an urgent application with the nation's highest courts to allow U.S. Postal Service is implementing a new rule that restricts mail-in voting. This comes as some U.S. States have already begun sending postal ballots in advance of the midterm elections on November 3. The U.S. district judge in Boston, Indira Talwani, extended the ban on Friday to prevent the new rule from going into effect. Supreme Court will likely make the final decision about whether or not the mail-in voting restrictions of the administration can continue. John Sauer, the Solicitor General for the Trump Administration, asked the Supreme Court to allow the rule to go into effect immediately, warning that every day the lower court's order remains in place, "risks sowing chaos and confusion" as more states issue ballots by mail. Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has set a deadline for the Trump Administration's request of?Wednesday. The administration filed an emergency request with the Supreme Court earlier to reverse Talwani’s shorter-term ban. She extended her ban before the Supreme Court had even ruled on the application. This led to the new filing by the administration on Sunday. USPS released its rule in order to implement the executive order signed by President Donald Trump in March. Trump has been calling for restrictions to voting by mail since he falsely claimed that his defeat in the 2020 presidential election was due to widespread voter fraud. The rule requires that states provide the USPS with lists of recipients and that all envelopes containing mail ballots, both outbound and returned, must have unique barcodes. USPS can refuse to deliver ballots that don't comply with new standards, or are associated with voters who are not listed on the lists. All U.S. States allow some form of mail in voting. 29 states allow voters to request to vote by mail, without stating a reason. Eight other states conduct their elections exclusively by mail. North Carolina became the first state on Friday to mail out ballots in the November elections.
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Poland suspects bird flock as possible cause of airspace violation
A large flock of birds was blamed by the authorities in Poland for a suspected violation of the airspace of the country. The alleged violation originated on the other side bordering Belarus. A spokesman from the Polish Armed Forces Operational Command said that the event had caused 'the Polish military' to send helicopters out to check if there was any violation of radiolocation system data shortly after noon local time (1100 GMT). The radar system did not record any violations of Polish airspace. The 'flock of birds that caused them was logged by the airspace surveillance system," wrote the?army? later on X. In a separate posting on X, Poland's PANSA said that Rzeszow airport in southeastern Poland has resumed operations after being briefly suspended to facilitate military aviation.
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Jakarta airport suspends flight due to Ash from Anak Krakatau
Jakarta's international airport, Soekarno Haatta, suspended flight operations until 9:30 am (0230 GMT) on Sunday because of volcanic ash. Indonesia's transport ministry reported that the suspension extended a halt scheduled to last until 5:30 am. It affected 209 flights including international flights. Anak Krakatau erupted late Friday night, and volcanic ash was detected at the airport on Sunday morning, according to a ministry statement. Berton Panjaitan is a spokesperson of Indonesia's disaster management agency BNPB. He said that the dispersal and accumulation of volcanic ash in Lampung Province on Sumatra Island, Indonesia, as well as Banten Province in Java has caused disruptions in?activities. The BNPB is urging the public to be calm and vigilant. In the event of volcanic ash falling, people should wear eye protection and masks, reduce outdoor activities, cover any water sources, and drive with caution. Local media outlet Kompas reported that several schools cancelled activities due to the eruption on Saturday. Students and residents were affected by ash irritation, while fishermen canceled their fishing trips. The disaster mitigation agency stated on Saturday that there is no imminent tsunami risk from the volcano.
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Greek F-4 crashes during air show near Athens, two pilots dead, sources say
Two officials confirmed that a Greek two-seat F-4 Phantom fighter jet crashed on Saturday during an airshow at Tanagra Air base north of Athens killing both pilots. The two pilots were confirmed dead by an official, who added that the Phantom crashed two kilometers outside of the airport. There was no report of injuries amongst the residents or passersby. ERT, a public?broadcaster, broadcast footage of the F-4 making a right turn a couple meters above ground before it crashed into a fireball. Eleven helicopters and firefighting planes were working to contain the fire which spread into the nearby forest. "We were all stunned. An eyewitness reported to ERT that the plane hadn't been in flight?for a?more than?three minutes. Loudspeakers were installed at the air base to urge people to leave the area. The F-4 took part in the annual Athens Flying Week. This event attracts military and civilian aviation teams from around the world.
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Protesters in Dover, England disrupt cross-Channel travel
Police and port authorities reported that groups of masked men protesting on roads around Dover (the main hub for ferries to France) disrupted traffic on Saturday. Social media videos posted by users showed men wearing black and balaclavas, and wearing scarves and?scarves, blocking roads at the port. Kent Police confirmed that it was "aware" of a protest currently taking place in the Port Of Dover. In a short statement, the police said that officers were present and engaged with protesters. The police didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for more information and details about the protest. The Port of Dover said that there is a "continuing public order incident" around the town of Dover, affecting all routes into and out of the port. The statement read: "We are in touch with Kent Police to understand the situation." Ferry operator P&O Ferries confirmed that its sailings are proceeding as planned. If you miss your booked departure today, we'll get you on the next available," said X.
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US Judge again blocks Postal Service’s mail-in vote restrictions
Federal Judge extended the ban on President Donald Trump’s administration from implementing new U.S. Postal Service rule that would increase the number of mail-in votes required ahead of November's congressional elections. Boston-based ?U.S. District Judge Indira Telwani issued this injunction on behalf of Democratic-led state and voting rights organizations, after one State sent out mail ballots to the elections last Friday. Talwani wrote only Congress' laws can override state authority in elections. She added that "the executive does not have inherent authority" to change voting rules. Talwani wrote that Congress never delegated voting authority to the Postal Service. The new rule of the agency "is in conflict with Congress's statute scheme and is unconstitutional." Talwani wrote that the immediate deadlines required by the Postal Service rule would cause "chaos" among groups who provide information on how to vote. The League of Women Voters, for example, "does not know whether or not to advise its members to vote via mail, despite their legal entitlement," Talwani's ruling states. The administration filed an appeal notice quickly. USPS refused to comment on this ruling but U.S. postmaster general David Steiner defended their handling of the matter. Steiner stated on Friday that "we have always acted within our legal authority" to issue a regulation to achieve these policies. However, the courts will ultimately decide this question and we will follow their determination. The White House didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. RULE ON POSTAL SERVICES FOLLOWS TRUMP'S ORDER According to the rule, the USPS must receive lists of recipients for mail ballots from the states. All outgoing and return?ballot envelops must have unique barcodes. Under the rule, the USPS may refuse to deliver any ballots that are not compliant with the new standards, or those associated with voters not appearing on the list. Talwani is an Obama appointee who issued a temporary injunction last week to stop the USPS from enforcing its rule. She was deciding whether or not to issue a more permanent injunction. The administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday to intervene and lift a temporary order, so that the rule can take effect. Last week, the court's conservative majority of 6-3 lifted an order Talwani had issued that prevented USPS from imposing restrictions. USPS released its rule in March to implement the executive order that Trump signed after years of calling for restrictions on voting by mail. All 50 states permit some form of mail in voting. 29 states allow voters to request to vote by mail, without providing any reason. Eight other states conduct their entire election by mail. North Carolina became the first state to mail ballots in the November elections on Friday. If the rule is allowed to go into effect, it could force state officials to make changes to their systems in just a few weeks, to conform to a system critics say USPS has not yet implemented. Talwani stated that it is "implausible", that states will be able comply with this rule in time for the upcoming elections of this year, since it would require 10,000 jurisdictions redesigning their ballots, printing them, and submitting voter information to an online portal run by USPS that doesn't yet exist. The court concluded that the disenfranchisement of Plaintiff Organizations members, regardless their residence, was inevitable. The administration asked a federal court of appeals to overturn Talwani’s original restraining orders. The 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston had not yet acted on this request. Circuit Court of Appeals hadn't acted on this request before the Judge issued her latest ruling.
Bousso: The quest of ROI-Gulf Exporters to bypass Hormuz is reshaping the region.
Middle East oil producers will have to face the consequences. The Iran War exposed the dangers of relying solely on one chokepoint to export vital oil and natural gas. Gulf governments were left with a clear strategy imperative: diversify at all costs. A blockade of Strait of Hormuz by Iran was long viewed as an "event of doomsday". It would never occur. Experts believed it would take a massive military effort, and Tehran would not be willing to choke off its own exports. These assumptions proved to be wildly wrong. Iran used cheap drones, small vessels, and mines to impose a nearly airtight blockade, but continued to export its oil.
The result was a global energy crisis that affected the entire region.
The countries lost export revenue and had to close down 11 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), along with refineries and LNG installations.
Washington and Tehran agreed to negotiate an agreement for a permanent ceasefire, but the "Hormuz Genie" can't be put back in the bottle. Future closures now pose a persistent and real risk to the region's economy and its people.
The Gulf countries have become economically dependent on developing alternative routes to export energy, chemicals, and fertilisers.
Pipeline Dreams
Saudi Arabia is the best example of how building pipelines to circumvent Hormuz can be beneficial.
The world's largest oil exporter diverted 60% of its shipments before the war to the Red Sea Port of Yanbu using a pipeline that crossed the country from the Gulf Coast. In the 1980s, Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, built the 1,200 kilometre (745 mile) route to protect against such a scenario.
The strategic foresight was rewarded.
In April, the International Monetary Fund stated that it expected Saudi Arabia's economic growth to be 3.1% by 2026. This is just 1.4 percentage point less than its pre-war prediction.
According to the IMF, Qatar's economy, which has no other routes for its oil exports and LNG, could contract by 8.6% in this year after growing by 2.8% by 2025.
Other regional players are taking note.
United Arab Emirates were able to bypass Hormuz in part by using their pipeline?to the Fujairah terminal located outside the Strait. Fujairah was damaged by Iranian fire but the UAE still managed to export 1.8 million barrels per day, or roughly half its pre-war production.
Abu Dhabi, who left OPEC last May to pursue a growth strategy that is ambitious, has now accelerated construction of a new pipeline, doubling export capacity through Fujairah to 2027.
Iraq is still in a very unenviable situation. The majority of the country's production is based in the south, so it is heavily dependent on Hormuz. Companies and authorities in Iraq are therefore looking at ways to improve and expand the northern export routes via Turkey and Syria. Security and political concerns are still major obstacles.
THE QATARI CONUNDRUM
Qatar and Kuwait are faced with a much more complex problem. Both countries, lacking alternative export routes on their own territory, will be forced to rely on neighbours in order to circumvent Hormuz.
Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. For Qatar to gain access to beyond the Strait of Gibraltar, it would have to build a pipeline across the Red Sea or through Saudi Arabia, either via Fujairah, Oman or the UAE. Each option has its own geopolitical and economic complications.
Costs would be astronomically higher if such projects required constructing new liquefaction capacities outside of the Gulf.
This would also make Qatar highly dependent on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, countries whose relationship with Doha has?been strained over recent years. This creates the political and strategic risk that Qatar has sought to avoid for years.
Kuwait faces a similar dilemma. To develop alternative export routes, it would be necessary to deepen energy integration with Saudi Arabia. This highlights how geography could reshape future regional alliances.
DIVERSIFICATION OVERSEAS
Diversification of geographic focus beyond the Middle East is another response that has gained traction.
Gulf national oil companies have been expanding overseas operations to create a hedge for future disruptions in the region. QatarEnergy (QE) and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company(ADNOC), which have built international portfolios that include oil, gas, and renewables, are leading the way.
This trend will likely accelerate. Acquiring stakes overseas in upstream assets such as refineries, LNG installations and storage terminals would generate valuable income streams, which are not exposed to Gulf risks. Such investments are a good way to ensure that you can still grow in a world without the certainty of Hormuz.
The race to diversify will shake up government strategies, reshuffle alliances and redirect investments as Middle East producers start the recovery process. It could, in other words reshape this region for many decades.
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(source: Reuters)