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ROI-Hormuz oil shock echoes 1973 embargo lessons: Bousso

Oil and gas have now resumed flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the closing of this vital waterway for more than 100 days may prove to be an important turning point on the global energy market. A similar supply shock in 1973, the Arab "oil embargo", offers clues as to where we may be heading. The latest Middle East Crisis tested the limits on the modern energy system. It has evolved over the past decades into an interconnected global market, held together by thousands trading houses, complex pricing systems, and thousands of tankers. The system was remarkably flexible during the U.S. - Israeli war against Iran that began on February 28, 2009. Rapid changes in supply and demand patterns have mitigated what was previously considered as a "doomsday scenario": the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is where nearly a fifth of 'world oil and liquefied gas supplies pass. This shock was not without pain, especially in Asia which relies on Middle East oil and gas for 60% of their imports. Market adaptations made during the crisis, such as the depletion of energy stocks and China's reduction in imports, were not sustainable.

The global energy markets bought time. The global energy markets could have reached a critical point had the Strait not reopened at that time, when inventories were dangerously low. The calamity could have been avoided, but the Hormuz Crisis has forced nations to rethink energy strategies. Do we need to expect a drastic reduction in the use of fossil fuels? The comparison of today's crisis with the Arab oil embargo shows that the future will be much more complex, but that it could mark the beginning of an end to the oil age.

BLACK GOLD

Standard Oil was founded in 1870 by John D. Rockefeller. The modern age began in 1859 with the drilling of America's first commercial oil well. Oil consumption grew from almost nothing in 1900 to more than 100 million barrels a day in the 2020s. Control of the "black gold", as global consumption grew throughout the century, and new oil frontiers emerged, especially in the Middle East, became a source for friction between Western nations and oil producing countries, fueling countless wars, coups, and conflicts. After the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries placed an oil embargo against the U.S. The oil price quadrupled almost overnight. This triggered a global inflation.

Great Reshuffle

The impact of the embargo was wide-ranging. It first pushed governments and companies to reduce fuel consumption. As Washington imposed fuel efficiency standards, U.S. motorists shifted to smaller and more efficient Japanese vehicles. European automakers promoted diesel engines and heavy industries shifted away from fuel oils to coal and gas. Western countries, in general, accelerated the development and production of oil and gas, especially offshore basins. It reduced their dependence on imports while also reducing the energy intensity of economies. In 1974, the crisis led to the creation of the International Energy Agency to coordinate global responses in the event of major oil disruptions. This included the management of newly-created national strategic petroleum reserve.

It did not lead to economies abandoning fossil fuels but to using them more carefully.

NEW ENERGY STRATEGY - DIVERSIFY AND BUY LOCALLY Fast forward to 2026 and a similar change appears to be taking place. There are more affordable alternatives to fossil-fuels available today than in the 1970s. This could reduce oil and gas consumption. Asia, which was most affected by the closure of the Gulf, responded with drastic measures. These included four-day work weeks, mandatory policies to work from home, and restrictions on car and air travel. Energy shortages forced some industries to reduce their capacity.

These were only temporary measures that would be reversed when oil flow returned to normal. It is structural changes which will determine the future of the fastest growing energy market in the world. Asian economies have focused for years on finding the cheapest sources of energy to fuel growth. Hormuz taught us that energy security is more important than anything else, including price. In order to achieve this, India and Pakistan are now investing in their domestic oil reserves. They will follow IEA member countries and China.

India, Pakistan, and Japan are all major energy importers who want to reduce their dependence on oil and gas. They do this by investing in renewables and nuclear power, and even coal. In South Korea, which is a major industrial and petrochemical powerhouse, the President Lee Jae Myung called for efforts to explore alternate supply chains, pursue long-term industrial restructuring, and move towards a "plastic free economy" as part of key national projects.

Europe was not as badly affected by the Iran Crisis, but it has experienced two major energy supply disruptions in less than five years. Europe had to replace the sanctioned energy supply after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Gas prices rose and countries implemented energy-saving measures. Chemicals, glass, and steel industries also suffered as the high cost of fuel made them uncompetitive on a global scale. The European gas market dropped by more than 20% between 2021-2023, and it has barely recovered since. Renewables are now a larger part of Europe's energy mix. This trend is likely to be accelerated by the latest shock.

Capital has already started to follow these new global energy priorities. Despite the Middle East conflict's destabilising effects, global energy investments are expected to reach $3.4 billion this year. This is up 5% on 2025.

Most of the money is going to alternative fuels and systems that are more resilient. This suggests that the shift away from oil, even if it is only marginally, is gaining traction.

According to the IEA, electric vehicle sales soared in the first three months of 2026. They increased by 30% in Europe, by 75% in Latin America, and by 80% in Asia Pacific. Solar trade flows also tell a similar story, with Chinese panels exports to Africa jumping 120% and to Southeast Asia by 150%.

In Africa, 15 nations reported solar imports exceeding $400 million dollars in the first quarter, compared to $650 million by 2025.

The policy agenda is moving towards a greater focus on energy efficiency. The global spending on this topic is already around $350 billion a year. And the scope of these?policies continue to expand. According to the IEA, approximately 20 countries announced new efficiency measures 'in response to the Hormuz Crisis.

It is not true that oil and natural gas will soon be replaced as the mainstays of a global energy system. The oil industry is still deeply rooted in transportation, agriculture, and construction. Meanwhile, the gas industry has been boosted by an increase in electricity demand, fueled by air conditioning, industrial expansion, and AI data centers. It's all about the direction. The direction of fossil fuel usage was always up and to the left for most of the 20th century. The Hormuz Crisis may change this.

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(source: Reuters)