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Martin Vladimirov: The race for economic security is driving Europe's energy transformation.

Europe is less vulnerable to disruptions in energy supplies since the Russia crisis of 2022, but the region still faces a new threat: high energy costs that are destroying the industrial base on the continent.

Europe has fared relatively well so far in the global energy crunch caused by the Iran War that began on 28 February. This is largely due to massive investments made in LNG terminals, mandatory storage, and an increased reliance on U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas. The price of?gas in Europe has risen but the region is not yet in crisis mode, like it was after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The conflict in Iran has shown that Europe is vulnerable to geopolitical instability, shipping disruptions and the competition from Asian LNG buyers. Since imported fossil fuels are the main factor in determining electricity prices, any external shock could lead to higher costs for European consumers and industry.

By the end of 2025, European electricity and natural gas prices had fallen by 34% and 14 %, respectively, compared to their averages in 2022. But they were still about 50% and 38% higher than pre-war prices.

The impact of higher energy prices on the European economy has already been significant. Between 2019 and 2023, the continent lost over one million industrial jobs. According to Handelsblatt, Germany, which was once considered "Europe's growth motor", will lose another 143,000 jobs in 2025.

The reasons for this include pandemic-related disruptions and higher inflation, as well as increased competition in advanced manufacturing from China. However, the high energy prices played a significant role because they made it harder for European manufacturers compete.

If electricity is not affordable, Europe risks a faster deindustrialisation.

AFFORDABILITY CRISIS

The Center for the Study of Democracy's 2026 Energy and Climate Security Risk Index shows that affordability is now the biggest source of energy security risks for most European economies.

The affordability risk fell 13% on an annual basis in 2025, but was still much higher than it was in 2021.

Over the long term, countries that are most dependent on fossil energy sources, such as Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, will face higher energy costs, and a lower level of industrial competitiveness.

Sweden, Finland and France are among the most resilient energy-producing countries in Europe. These countries combine low-carbon energy, such as nuclear and hydropower with rapidly growing solar and wind power and high levels of electrification.

According to Electricity Maps, when the Iran War disrupted LNG flow through the Strait of Hormuz, in March, the average wholesale electricity price in Germany was higher than that in Finland, Sweden, and France, by EUR61 per megawatt-hour, EUR33 per megawatt-hour, and EUR35 for each, respectively.

Gas is rarely the main factor in setting power prices for these highly electrified systems. In Finland and Sweden electricity already makes up around 30% of the final energy consumption, which is far higher than in most of Europe. France's electric system receives over 70% of it from nuclear power.

The long-standing debate in Europe over nuclear energy versus renewables may not be the right one. Combining both produces the best-performing electricity system.

GROWING PAINS

Unfortunately, Europe lacks the necessary institutional framework to quickly and reliably deploy a more efficient energy system across the continent.

It is true that Europe's electric system is changing with unprecedented speed. According to Eurostat, the installed solar capacity of several Central and Eastern European nations almost quadrupled from 2021-2025. The EU battery storage also increased by 10 times.

The rapid growth of renewables that are intermittent puts increasing pressure on the electricity grids and storage systems. Last year's Iberian Blackout highlighted these vulnerabilities.

Countries that combine renewables with reliable, low-carbon generation, stronger interconnections and greater investment ?in grid infrastructure appear to be significantly more resilient than their more fossil-fuel-dependent peers.

The new nuclear project is also plagued by fragmented regulations, long permitting processes, financial constraints, and supply-chain bottlenecks, which drive up construction costs and cause delays.

What can you do?

Instead of treating each project as an individual national undertaking, the EU should develop common deployment programs based on standard procedures and commercially viable funding models, which would allow for successful designs and delivery methods to be quickly replicated across multiple countries.

Keep up in the?AI Race

This race for energy security is being accelerated by the race to create a competitive AI eco-system. AI data centres and advanced semi-conductor manufacturing require huge quantities of reliable low-carbon energy.

Also, they rely on a secure supply chain for raw materials such as batteries, semiconductors, and advanced grid equipment. These are areas in which Europe is heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturers. If Europe does not diversify these supply chains, then it runs the risk of replacing one strategic dependence with another.

Energy security in the AI era is not just about supplying energy. It is about whether or not the continent has enough clean, affordable and reliable electricity to maintain industrial competitiveness, technology leadership, and economic sovereignty.

The countries who understand this shift will define Europe's future decade. Those who do not understand this shift will be left behind.

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(source: Reuters)