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The oil boom in the Americas will last longer than the Iran conflict

Oil producers in the Americas, from Canada to Argentina have benefited during the Iran War by regaining market share that Middle Eastern exporters lost. This renewed focus on global energy security could turn this emergency response into an enduring?structural shift.

Since the Iran War and the closing of the 'Strait of Hormuzsix month ago, a fifth of world?oil supply was disrupted. This is the biggest shift in global energy landscape in decades.

The Hormuz shutdown immediately caused a scramble for Middle Eastern barrels to be replaced. The Americas emerged as the main beneficiary.

According to Kpler, crude exports in the region, which stretches from Canada to Argentina, are at a record high of 11,7 million barrels per daily (bpd). This is up from 10,3 million bpd, and almost double what they were a decade earlier.

Brazil is second with 2.5 million bpd, while the U.S. exports average 4.4 million bpd.

Asia has taken in most of the extra crude oil from the Americas. Imports from the Western Hemisphere into the continent have risen since the Iran War began. They are expected to reach a new record of 5.4 million barrels per day in August compared with a 4 million bpd average in 2025.

The diversification of the economy was not planned, but rather a result of necessity. The shock has revealed the dangers of an over-dependence on Middle Eastern supply. The lesson of Asia's past wars may last a long time.

Even if Gulf?exports recover eventually, Asian importers may want to avoid becoming overly reliant on any one region - particularly one with high conflict risk and vulnerable maritime chokepoints.

It is more costly to source a greater share of crude oil from the Western Hemisphere because Gulf crude?retains an advantage in terms of geography. This cost is increasingly seen as a premium for future geopolitical disruption.

AMERICAS ASCENTANT

The remarkable increase in oil and natural gas production in the Americas during the last decade has made this shift possible.

The U.S. Shale Revolution, which has transformed the global oil market and made America the largest producer of oil in 2018, surpassing Saudi Arabian and Russian production, was the primary driver for the expansion. U.S. oil production reached a record high of 21,000,000 bpd by 2025. This accounted for a quarter of the global output.

Other countries have also seen a significant increase in production.

According to the IEA Brazil will reach a record 4.3m bpd by 2026. This is an increase of 480,000 bpd over last year.

Canada, meanwhile, continues to increase its oil-sands production capacity. Guyana has become one of the fastest growing producers in the world, while Argentina continues to increase output from its Vaca Muerta shale, which is one of the biggest unconventional resources outside North America.

In 2027, the combined North American and Latin American oil production will average 30.5 millions bpd, while Latin American oil output is expected to reach 9.3 million. According to IEA figures, this would be a 50% increase for the region in the last decade.

North America and the region have spent many years developing production capacities, export terminals, shipping infrastructure, and pipelines. The Middle East crisis has come at the perfect time for oil producers in many ways.

The MATCH IS MADE IN HORMUZ

Hormuz has provided a unique opportunity for these suppliers.

Asia is largely responsible for this shift. The Americas account for 30% of the global seaborne crude oil exports. The Americas won't replace Middle Eastern suppliers in Asia completely, but they could continue to erode their market share.

Since decades, Asia has imported Middle Eastern oil because of its proximity.

The transit time for a tanker from Brazil to Japan can be up to 60 days, which is about three times the time it takes to travel from the Gulf. These longer journeys tie up fleets and increase freight demand, as well as shipping costs.

Tanker rates have risen as crude oil has taken the long way to Asia. According to LSEG, rates for a VLCC carrying 2,000,000 barrels reached a record-high of $640,000 per 'day. This is more than three times the pre-war level.

Asian refiners are willing to accept higher transport costs for energy security. In a volatile world, distance may not matter as much as reliability.

Few producing regions can compete with the Americas in terms of offering a variety of crude grades.

You can find them. You can find them. You can get them. These are becoming more abundant.

The Americas can't replace the Middle East because it has much larger reserves and lower production costs.

What began as a temporary reaction to the Iran War is now looking more like a permanent realignment in global oil trade, one that may last long after missiles cease flying over the Gulf.

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(source: Reuters)