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Trump's trade threats increase global ocean shipping uncertainty

Ocean shipping, which handles 80% of the world's trade, is in a state of uncertainty. U.S. president Donald Trump has stoked trade and geopolitical frictions with historic foes and neighbors as well as allies and partners.

This is the background for the S&P Global TPM Container Shipping and Supply Chain Conference in Long Beach, California this week, an event that marks the beginning of the container shipping contract negotiation season.

This year's attendees include major logistics companies like DSV and DHL, as well as industry heavyweights such as container carriers MSC and Hapag-Lloyd, and marquee customers Walmart.

These companies are likely to be affected by the effects of an increase in protectionism. This could lead to a reduction of international trade, while reducing the negotiating power of large container ship owners who have made huge profits and held the advantage for years on pricing.

Trump has already added an extra 10% tariff to goods coming from China, which is the largest exporter in the world. He has also proposed a million-dollar entry fee for ships built by Chinese shipbuilders.

The U.S. may impose tariffs of 25% on products like avocados, tequila, beef, lumber, and oil imported from Canada, as early as next Tuesday.

Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff for Chinese goods. Trump's administration is also planning new or higher steel and aluminum tariffs and has floated a 25% duty on products from Europe.

Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, told reporters Monday that the world is becoming more unpredictable.

He said that higher tariffs and fees would be bad for the global economy, and that they would put pressure on the growth of the industry and its consumers.

Global supply chains have to manage higher costs due to severe weather caused by global warming and divert ships away from Suez Canal in order to avoid attacks from Iran-backed Houthi militants supporting Palestinians in Gaza.

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U.S. container exports have soared in recent years, largely due to the early purchase of products to avoid tariffs. Trade experts warn, however, that there will be a significant pullback once the new import taxes are implemented, targeted countries retaliate and inflation-weary consumers absorb the cost increase.

The spot rate of a 40-foot Drewry World Container Index container as of Thursday was $2,629, which is 75% lower than the peak pandemic price of $10,377 reached in September 2021, and the lowest since May 20,24.

In a recent report, Jefferies analysts stated that the geopolitical environment has become more complex. This could result in wild swings in freight rates either way. However, our base case is a moderated rate of growth through 2025.

The U.S. trade representative proposed on February 21, a plan supported by unions to boost U.S. shipbuilding, imposing hefty fees for Chinese-built ships entering U.S. port.

According to the proposal, vessels owned by Chinese maritime operators such as state-owned COSCO will pay an entrance fee up to $1,000,000 per vessel. Other operators who use Chinese-built vessels could pay a fee of up to $1.5 million.

This change may benefit South Korean and Taiwanese liner operators. Experts warn that it could have a significant impact on container carriers, and increase consumer prices of goods such as toys, clothing and food.

Lars Jensen, a container shipping expert on LinkedIn, said that the economic burden for U.S. importers and exporters would be enormous.

The actions of the U.S. government over the last four weeks have been unprecedented. Reporting by Lisa Baertlein from Long Beach, California. Editing by Margueritachoy and Bill Berkrot

(source: Reuters)