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In June, Northeast Asia sent the most jet fuel into Europe in almost a year

According to three sources and shiptrackers, traders exported the most jet-fuel from Northeast Asia to Europe since almost a full year in June, as lower freight costs and abundant Asian supplies boosted exports amid fears of Middle East supply disruption.

Kpler data shows that 350,000 metric tonnes (2.8 million barrels of aviation fuel) is headed to Europe from South Korea, China and some traders estimate 465,000 tons based on bookings made in the month of June.

Analysts said that these shipments will help to ease Asia's jet-fuel oversupply in the short term and set a price floor.

The data revealed that Vitol and BP, Aramco Trading Gunvor, and Unipec (the trading arm of Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec) chartered five tankers in June.

Vitol, Saudi Aramco, Gunvor, Unipec, and BP declined to comment.

Ivan Mathews, Vortexa’s head of APAC Analysis, said that Northeast Asia jet-fuel exports rose during June, as refiners increased their production following maintenance in their plants, and as “product cracks” strengthened.

Two Singapore-based sources reported that traders shifted their spot cargoes towards the West in order to take advantage of lucrative margins and a fall in freight rates. This was due to a recent lack of interest in spot purchases from regional importers.

Zameer Yusof, senior research analyst at Kpler, said that these trade flows were "purely opportunistic and spurred on by geopolitical pressures which sent Northwest Europe cracks soaring". Freight rates for modern newbuild vessels also remained attractive, justifying the move.

Prices of jet fuel in Northwest Europe The price of a ton in Asia is $60-$80 higher. LSEG data indicated that the majority of June was spent in warm weather.

Jet fuel demand in Europe typically increases during the summer months, when travel is at its peak. Eurocontrol reported that June flight numbers were up 7.8% over the previous month and 5.2% year-over-year.

Jet fuel prices rose in Europe on the fear that the Middle East conflict could disrupt the supply.

Bookings made prior to the Iran-Israel conflict on June 13 saw the price of 90,000 tons jet fuel shipped on LR2 tanks fall to a low of $40-$45 per ton, a drop of one month.

Two shipping sources reported that at least four new LR2 ships have been booked in June and/or July to transport jet fuel east-west.

One shipbroker source stated that the first voyages of new vessels are usually cheaper, because some owners wish to collect tracking history and miles.

Analysts did not expect that the price of Asian jet fuel would rise as a result of increased exports to Europe.

"Asia is chronically net-long jet/kero in June and in July by about 625 kbd, and Europe bound flows will not make a significant dent in this surplus," Kpler’s Yusof stated.

It's difficult to remain constructive when China targets jet/kero exports above 2 million tons per monthly.

China exported 1,92 million tons jet fuel in May, a 20% increase on the previous year.

(source: Reuters)