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ShipMatrix predicts that US holiday package delivery will increase by 5% in 2024.

A forecast released on Monday shows that U.S. shipping companies will handle 2.3 billion parcels this holiday season. This is 5% more than the previous year. An extra shopping day has helped offset President Donald Trump's tax policies.

Investors want to know about the holiday season, which runs from Thanksgiving through Christmas. Companies like FedEx or UPS can deliver up to twice as many packages some days.

ShipMatrix, a logistics technology provider, said Monday that the expected increase in holiday delivery will not be distributed equally among companies.

This could lead to a greater pushback from customers on "peak surcharges", which are meant to protect carriers' profits against higher costs during the holiday season.

FedEx and Amazon.com's logistics divisions saw their domestic parcel volumes increase by 5% and 6.1% respectively in the first half 2025. UPS's volume, which has been reducing the number of Amazon packages that it delivers, fell by 5.4%. The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) fell 6.7%, ShipMatrix said.

Report: The combined volume drop at UPS and USPS was greater than the increase by Amazon and FedEx. This additional volume, 102,000,000 packages, was probably handled by private delivery networks for large retailers such as Walmart, or other carriers.

ShipMatrix said that if current trends continue into the holiday season "we expect FedEx, Amazon and USPS to see a 5-8 percent increase while UPS and USPS will remain flat."

The demand for delivery has been dampened by the higher prices in the U.S. for goods that are tied to Trump's new tariffs, as well as a reduction of duty exemptions on low-value products sold through China-linked retailers such as Temu and Shein.

FedEx and UPS are seeing a decline in volumes since Trump ended the exemption from import duties for low-value goods that were sold directly to consumers by China and Hong Kong, on May 2, and the rest of world on August 29, 2017. In the last year, 1.4 billion packages were imported into the United States using the "de minimis exemption" for goods worth less than $800.

Trump's tariff policy, which is constantly changing, has also dampened business spending in the United States and caused consumers to be wary of rising prices. Consumers, who spend two-thirds or more of their income, are particularly concerned about this. (Reporting by Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by Jamie Freed)

(source: Reuters)