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Powell's chilling of December rate cuts has caused stocks to fall and the US dollar to strengthen.

The global stock market reversed its course on Wednesday and was on track to end a four session streak of gains, while the U.S. Dollar extended gains following the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dampening of expectations for a further U.S. central bank interest rate cut in December. The Fed reduced rates by 25 basis point, citing the limited data visibility caused by the U.S. shutdown. It also announced that it would stop the quantitative tightening of its $6.6 trillion (also known as QT) balance sheet due to evidence that liquidity in the money markets has tightened and bank reserves are falling. The stock market initially gained after the announcement, but then fell after Powell stated that "a further decrease in the policy rate is not predetermined at the December meeting." The policy isn't set in stone. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose as a result.

Tony Welch is the chief investment officer of SignatureFD, an Atlanta-based firm.

"We think that the inflation risk in 2026 will be higher, and I believe that December may end up being the final cut in this cycle." Markets are expecting three rate cuts in 2019. The market could be disappointed. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market had been pricing in an 85% probability of a December rate cut. This dropped to 65% after Powell's remarks. Wall Street saw U.S. stock prices finish off their previous highs. The S&P ended the session almost flat. U.S. stock prices have risen to record highs recently, thanks to a cooling of U.S.-China tensions in trade, the expectation that the Fed will cut rates, the outsized expenditures related to artificial intelligent, and the solid start to corporate earnings season. Nvidia was the first company on Wednesday to surpass the $5 trillion valuation. The shares rose 3% after a 5% jump the day before, when CEO Jensen Huang announced that the AI chip maker will build seven supercomputers for U.S. Department of Energy and has booked $500 billion for its chips. Microsoft lost about 3% after the closing bell. Alphabet gained almost 4%, and Meta fell more than 6%. Each of the megacaps companies reported quarterly results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 74.37, or 0.16 %, to 47.632.00. The S&P 500 fell 0.30, or zero percent, to 6,890.59, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 130.98, or 0.55 %, to 23958.47. The MSCI index of global stocks fell 0.61 points or 0.06% to 1,012.99, after reaching an intraday high of 1,017.24. Meanwhile, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 0.06%.

Bank of Japan policy announcements and European Central Bank policy announcements are expected later this week. After Powell's remarks, the dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket currencies, extended gains and was last up by 0.54% at 99.21. The euro, on the other hand, was down by 0.47% to $1.1594.

The dollar gained 0.47% against the Japanese yen to reach 152.82, but sterling fell 0.67%, to $1.318, The Canadian dollar fell 0.04% against the dollar to C$1.395. The Canadian dollar initially strengthened following the Bank of Canada's Wednesday reduction of its overnight key interest rate from 2.25% to 2.25%, as was widely expected. It also signaled that this could be the end of its cutting cycle, unless the outlook of inflation and the economic changes.

At a recent summit in South Korea between U.S. president Donald Trump and South Korean president Lee Jae Myung, the two leaders finalized their tense trade agreement. Trump was also optimistic about a upcoming meeting with China's Xi Jinping.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes continued to rise after the Fed's policy announcement and chair's remarks. It was last up 9.5 points at 4,0785, which is its largest one-day increase since June 6. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with Fed rate expectations, jumped 10.8 basis points, to 3.602%. This was also the largest increase since June 6. U.S. crude oil settled at $60.48 per barrel, a 0.55% increase. Brent was $64.92, a 0.81% rise on the day. This is due to a drop in U.S. stocks and optimism regarding trade policies.

(source: Reuters)