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Trump's Brazil coffee tariff of 50% is expected to change the trade and send more beans to China

The steep tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Brazilian coffee are likely to change the trade routes of the beans produced in the world's largest grower and exporter. This will benefit China, and encourage traders to seek out indirect routes to the U.S.

The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that a 50% tariff will be imposed on certain Brazilian products, such as coffee, starting August 6. The tariff will make it difficult for commodities traders and Brazilian exporters to find customers for the 8 million bags of coffee sold to U.S. processors each year.

The U.S. consumes around 25 million bags of coffee per year. Brazil accounts for a third of the total, with bilateral trade worth $4.4 billion over the 12-month period ending in June.

The global coffee trade will be reshuffled. "The global coffee trade flow will be reshuffled," Michael J. Nugent said, a senior U.S. broker and owner at MJ Nugent & Co.

China could gain from the possible rerouting the huge volume Brazil sends to the U.S.

Marc Schonland is an independent advisor for the U.S. Coffee Industry. He said that more Brazilian beans could be headed to China due to trade ties with both nations. Both are members of the BRICS Group.

China's coffee consumption is on the rise as more young professionals are switching from tea to coffee for a caffeine boost. Brazil was its largest supplier in 2025. Data from the exporters association Cecafe revealed that Brazil exported 538,000 bags of coffee to China.

According to data from the industry, the consumption of coffee in China has increased by around 20% annually over the past 10 years. The consumption per capita has also doubled during the last five years.

Logan Allender is the head of coffee for Atlas Coffee Club, a U.S. roaster.

Experts in trade see that exporters can try to avoid tariffs by exporting Brazilian Coffee to other countries and then to the U.S.

The stopovers could take place in Mexico or Panama.

Tariffs have no meaning if there isn't a traceable supply. We can't stop the flow of oil, so why should we do it with coffee? He said.

Judith Ganes, an independent consultant and senior soft commodities analyst, said that the U.S. did not include coffee in a list of Brazilian products exempted from tariffs. This suggests Trump uses the product to bargain with Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva.

Trump said that Brazil's Supreme Court treats his ally former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro unfairly. The U.S. sanctioned Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes Wednesday.

Coffee that is loaded by Brazil on August 6 will be allowed to enter the U.S. tariff-free until October 6.

William Kapos, the CEO of Downeast Coffee Roasters in the U.S. East Coast said that he was rushing to get Brazilian coffee out of South America by next week's deadline.

Kapos stated that he would be looking to purchase coffee from Central America or Africa in the future to replace Brazilian beans.

He said, "But everyone will do that. Price-wise, it's going to be a squeeze for U.S. customers."

(source: Reuters)