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Aircraft Lessors Maintain Stable Course as Risks Accumulate

Investors may be worried by the transatlantic rift, but aircraft leasing giants who own more than half of the world's fleet are confident that their industry is stronger than ever.

The leasing industry, which has a tariff-free status on most aircraft and the ability to move assets cross-borders, as well as its past experience, should be able to protect it from a world that is rapidly changing, said leasing bosses at their annual meeting.

Renters, resale value and profits are supported by a backlog of Boeing and Airbus orders. Supplies are also limited due to industrial problems.

Tom Baker, CEO at Aviation Capital Group, said that despite global volatility, the aviation industry has been "shockingly steady".

"The lack of available aircraft has, for better or for worse, put guardrails around this cycle."

SMBC Aviation CEO Peter Barrett stated that risks have increased but the industry is absorbing them.

"Is the risk higher? He said it felt like that, if not different then certainly more. "(But) The industry has done a good job managing geopolitical risks."

BURNT BY OLD CRISES

The industry has made mistakes before. It was burned by the Asian Financial Crisis, 9/11, COVID-19, and Russia's refusal to return stranded planes after its invasion of Ukraine.

Some caution was added, but some pointed out that the investment horizon of jets is decades long and should help smooth any downturn.

Firoz Tarapore, CEO of Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE), told the Airline Economics Conference in Dublin that it would take some time to determine if these knee-jerk responses (by the U.S. Administration) become chronic.

"The disruption caused by the largest economy in the World is something you can't just dismiss as a sneeze that will disappear."

CONSOLIDATION TO CONTINUE

Lessors who have large order books are now separated from those that don't. CEOs warn smaller firms to find a niche and grow if they want to survive.

Last year, SMBC Aviation acquired Air Lease Corp. in the United States. Sources said this week that Steven Udvar Hazy, the 80-year old chairman of Air Lease and one of its founders, is considering a new venture. Hazy declined to comment.

Avolon CEO Andy Cronin stated that barriers to entry are increasing, due to balance-sheet requirements, order-book size and the requirement for a "strong credit rating".

He said, "This journey is more difficult today without a sovereign fund or large bank to support you."

Avolon, SMBC, and AerCap all have offices in Dublin within walking distance from each other and manage together 15% of the global fleet.

Cronin stated that "consolidation has some way to go."

Sources said that all eyes are on the sale Macquarie AirFinance, with DAE AviLease and Qatar's Lesha Bank as the final contenders. Macquarie declined comment, and none of the prospective buyers responded immediately.

Baker from ACG, who is expecting to be one of the last big lessors standing, says that the market boom offers an opportunity to owners of lessors.

He said: "If you cannot commit capital, return capital or grow, it is only a question of time until your sponsors say thank you, this has been a wonderful experiment and it's now time to move forward." (Sabrina Valle, Dan Catchpole, and Allison Lampert contributed additional reporting. Padraic Halpin is the author. Mark Potter (Editing)

(source: Reuters)