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Sources say that oil loadings in Russia's western ports are expected to increase by 5-10% this May.

Sources in the trade and industry said that oil exports from Russia's western port are expected to increase this month due to lower crude production at Russian oil plants. However, the OPEC+ production limits may only have a small impact on Moscow’s export plans.

The port of Primorsk may increase its daily loadings to an average of 2.0-2.1 million barrels next month, up from the 1.9 million barrels planned for April.

Calculations showed that this is an increase of 5-10% per day.

On account of low margins, refinery runs could fall by 80,000 to 100,000 barrels per a day. The impact of a stronger rouble, and lower damper payment is negative. Oil prices for domestic oil plants are also falling, but at a slower pace," said an industry source.

According to calculations based upon data from industry sources and despite the extension of stoppages, Russia's primary oil refining offline capacity is expected to remain unchanged from April, at approximately 3.0 million metric tons.

The higher OPEC+ oil output quotas could have a limited impact on Moscow's May export plans, as Russia would compensate to a great extent for a planned rise.

Eight OPEC+ nations agreed to accelerate their plan to phase-out oil production cuts by increasing output 411,000 barrels a day in May.

The Russian oil production quota rose to 9,083 million bpd in May, and its updated plan from OPEC required it to compensate 85,000 bpd for oil overproduction.

According to OPEC, Russia's crude output fell to 8,963 million barrels a day in March, from 8,973 million bpd a month earlier. Jan Harvey (Reporting and Editing)

(source: Reuters)