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Jet fuel prices are on the rise, and airlines have failed to implement hedging strategies.

As a sharp increase in oil prices shakes the global transport market, airlines are facing an additional threat. The price of jet fuel has risen much faster than crude oil prices.

Airlines that use hedging contracts in order to protect themselves from sudden increases in oil 'prices' are announcing fare increases, fuel surcharges, and capacity reductions as they struggle with the unprecedented increase in refining profits since the U.S. - Israel war on Iran. Jet fuel Prices normally rise and fall in line with crude oil prices. However, since the Iran conflict they have more than doubled, outpacing an increase of one third in crude prices. This has cast a shadow on margins, and rattled carriers all over the world. Cathay Pacific Airways Chief Finance Officer Rebecca Sharpe told reporters in Hong Kong on Wednesday that the increase was "dramatic". "Our hedging depends more on crude oil than jet fuel. We have some protection, but it doesn't cover the entire cost of jet fuel. "

WINNERS & LOSSES

The major?carriers of the U.S., China, and other countries have no hedging agreements in place. This leaves them exposed to sudden increases in fuel prices, which, according to aviation expert Hans Joergen Elnaes, historically tend to remain high for several months during times of unrest, such as the Middle East Crisis.

Low-cost carriers have historically carried the most price-sensitive clients. "They're the ones who get squeezed most in this climate," said?Nathan Gee. Bank of America's Asia Pacific Transportation Research head.

Hedging is a two-edged weapon. Hedging is a double-edged sword. It can protect airlines from fuel price spikes by using derivative contracts. However, it also exposes carriers to higher rates when the prices drop, which has led some carriers into financial trouble in the past. According to J.P. Morgan in Europe, where hedging contracts are common, a sustained increase of 10% in jet fuel costs could reduce Wizz Air’s operating profit this year by up to 31%.

Wizz, who reported a 50-million euro ($57.74-million) hit due to the Middle Eastern conflict has hedged 83% (through March) of its jet fuel requirements, but only 55% through the end of the year in March 2027. Jozsef Varradi, its CEO, said last week that it was "not naked" and well-protected.

Jet fuel was about $21 higher per barrel in Asia than before the conflict. However, the refining margin increased to $144 by March 4, and remained high, at $65 on Wednesday.

Gee, from BofA, said: "That is what happened last week?and everyone was less protected."

Air New Zealand, Australia's Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia do not fly to the Middle East. They are also more than 80% hedged for crude oil in the half year ending June. However, they have already raised fares to protect their margins.

BofA estimated that Asian airlines' net profits in 2026 could fall by an average of 6 percent for every $10 increase per barrel in the refining margins over 90 days.

Analysts said that many Asian airlines hedged only against Brent oil prices or did not hedge at all. Singapore Airlines and Virgin Australia were the exceptions as they had a greater protection against rising jet fuel prices.

Sharpe, Cathay's Sharpe, said that many airlines do not hedge jet fuel because it is a smaller market than oil and costs more to hedge.

She said, "The market is extremely thin and expensive." Fuel prices are highly volatile, and we do not have a crystal-ball to predict the future. ($1 = 0.8660 euros)

(source: Reuters)