Latest News

Fuel price spikes threaten travel demand, causing airlines to face a dilemma regarding fares

The sudden rise in oil prices has forced global airlines to increase fares and reduce capacity. However, the industry's ability remain profitable depends on whether consumers decide to cut back on their flying because gasoline costs are threatening household budgets.

The airline industry forecast'record profits' of $41 billion by 2026 before the U.S. - Israel conflict with Iran started last month. However, a doubling of jet?fuel costs has put that in doubt and forced carriers to rethink networks and strategies.

United Airlines, Air New Zealand, and Scandinavian SAS all announced fare increases and capacity reductions. Others imposed fuel surcharges.

Rigas Doganis said that airlines face an existential threat. He was the former head of Greece's Olympic Airways, and a director at Britain's easyJet.

They will have to reduce fares in order to stimulate a weakening market, while the higher cost of fuel will force them to raise fares. "A perfect storm", said Doganis who is now the chairman of London-based consultancy Airline Management Group.

Record Passenger Traffic

The?industry last year reported record global passenger traffic, which rebounded about 9% over pre-pandemic numbers despite persistent supply-chain issues that affected the deliveries of new aircraft.

The record post-pandemic travel demand and persistent supply chain challenges had constrained capacity and given airlines considerable pricing power, as they filled more plane seats.

The scale of the increase needed to compensate for the surge in jet fuel prices is enormous at a time when the consumer's discretionary spending could be curtailed by higher gasoline costs.

Andrew Lobbenberg, Barclays head of European Transport Equity Research, said that the only way to increase prices is to reduce capacity. "I would expect that to happen this time and in previous crises, people have just to start cutting capacity."

HIGHER TICKET PRICES

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said to ABC News that the airline would need to raise fares by 20% to cover higher fuel costs.

Cathay Pacific Airways in Hong Kong has reduced fuel surcharges on two occasions over the past month. A return flight from Sydney to London from Wednesday will incur a fuel surcharge of $800. Prior to the Iran conflict, the normal round-trip economy class fare for the route was approximately A$2,000 (1,369.60).

Analysts say that low-cost carriers may struggle most because their customers are more price sensitive than corporate clients and wealthy consumers, who are increasingly being targeted by premium competitors like Delta Air Lines or United Airlines.

Nathan Gee, Bank of America’s Asia-Pacific Transport Research Head, said: "I believe that for more price-sensitive travelers, even short-haul flights are downgraded to rail, bus, or other alternatives."

OIL SHOCKS

The Middle East conflict has been the fourth oil crisis for the airline industry, but the first time that carriers such as Vietnam Airlines are concerned about the physical supply of fuel because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

One was in 2007-2008, before the global economic crisis slowed demand. Another followed the Arab Spring in 2011, and the third came after the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022.

Between 2008 and 2014, a series of mergers like Delta-Northwest or American Airlines-US Airways reduced the number of major U.S. carriers to four. Low-cost carriers like IndiGo and Ryanair relied on single-aircraft aircraft fleets and quick turnarounds to maintain low unit costs. It is obvious that carriers can reduce costs by replacing older, more fuel-inefficient planes with newer, more fuel-efficient ones. However, a severe shortage of supply chain in the aftermath of the pandemic, and problems with the latest engines has delayed deliveries.

While U.S. low-cost carriers are equipped with some of the most modern and fuel-efficient aircraft in the industry, the cost of these planes could be a barrier to profitability if demand for travel falls.

Dan Taylor, the head of consulting at aviation advisory firm IBA said that the current oil crisis was expected to "widen the gap" between financially strong airlines and those with weaker finances. He said that carriers with strong balance sheets, pricing power and reliable access capital were better positioned to withstand ongoing pressures. "Airlines with low profitability or limited funding options could face increased financial pressure."

(source: Reuters)